Thursday, October 24, 2013

CONCACAF Hexagonal: Fin

Previous Hex Reports:
Preview
After 1 game
After 3 games
After 4 games
After 5 games
After 6 games
After 8 games

All Results:
Date
Home
Score (H)
Score (A)
Away
Hex Game
6-Feb
Honduras
2
1
United States
1
6-Feb
Mexico
0
0
Jamaica
1
6-Feb
Panama
2
2
Costa Rica
1
22-Mar
Honduras
2
2
Mexico
2
22-Mar
Jamaica
1
1
Panama
2
22-Mar
United States
1
0
Costa Rica
2
26-Mar
Costa Rica
2
0
Jamaica
3
26-Mar
Mexico
0
0
United States
3
26-Mar
Panama
2
0
Honduras
3
4-Jun
Jamaica
0
1
Mexico
6
7-Jun
Costa Rica
1
0
Honduras
4
7-Jun
Jamaica
1
2
United States
4
7-Jun
Panama
0
0
Mexico
4
11-Jun
Honduras
2
0
Jamaica
5
11-Jun
Mexico
0
0
Costa Rica
5
11-Jun
United States
2
0
Panama
5
18-Jun
Costa Rica
2
0
Panama
6
18-Jun
United States
1
0
Honduras
6
6-Sep
Costa Rica
3
1
United States
7
6-Sep
Mexico
1
2
Honduras
7
6-Sep
Panama
0
0
Jamaica
7
10-Sep
Honduras
2
2
Panama
8
10-Sep
Jamaica
1
1
Costa Rica
8
10-Sep
United States
2
0
Mexico
8
11-Oct
Honduras
1
0
Costa Rica
9
11-Oct
Mexico
2
1
Panama
9
11-Oct
United States
2
0
Jamaica
9
15-Oct
Costa Rica
2
1
Mexico
10
15-Oct
Jamaica
2
2
Honduras
10
15-Oct
Panama
2
3
United States
10

Updated Table:
Hex
GP
W
D
L
GD
GF
GA
Pnt
Pts/15
Pts/20
United States
10
7
1
2
7
15
8
22
15
22
Costa Rica
10
5
3
2
6
13
7
18
15
18
Honduras
10
4
3
3
1
13
12
15
11
15
Mexico
10
2
5
3
-2
7
9
11
6
11
Panama
10
1
5
4
-4
10
14
8
6
8
Jamaica
10
0
5
5
-8
5
13
5
3
5

The United States, Costa Rica, and Honduras secured berths in the 2014 World Cup. Mexico must play a home-and-home series with New Zealand to qualify.

Hex Math: 

So let's look back at our assumptions coming into the Hex, and then how they stacked up in 2013:
  • It has taken an average of 15.75 points to finish in the top-3 and snag an automatic berth. 
  • It has taken an average of 20.75 points to win the group. 
  • The best team in a hex year bags about 12-13 points at home
  • Since teams don't usually win all of their home games, the team that emerges atop the Hex usually bags a couple of road wins to get above 20 points. 
  • Qualifying teams out of the Hex have averaged at least 11.75 points at home
  • Qualifying teams have averaged at least 4 points on the road.
  • The average difference between 1st place and 6th place has been 16 points
  • The group winner has always had at least 10 points after 5 games have been played

Average in Hex play pre-2013
2013 Hex Results
Position
Home Results, GD
Away Results, GD
Home Results, GD
Away Results, GD
1st
12.5 Pts, +9.5
8.25 Pts, +1
15 Pts, +8
7 Pts, -1
2nd
13.25 Pts, +9.25
5.5 Pts, -0.75
15 Pts, +8
3 Pts, -2
3rd
11.75 Pts, +5.75
4 Pts, -4.5
11 Pts, +4
4 Pts, -3
4th
9.75 Pts, +3.5
4 Pts, -4.5
6 Pts, 0
5 Pts, -2
5th
7.75 Pts, +2
1.5 Pts, -7
6 Pts, 1
2 Pts, -5
6th
3.75 Pts, -3.5
1 Pts, -10.75
3 Pts, -2
2 Pts, -6
So how did we do?
  • The qualifiers earned 22 points (United States), 18 points (Costa Rica), and 15 points (Honduras). So while the 15.75-point barrier wasn't quite accurate, it was very close. 
  • The United States won the group with 22 points, clearing the 20.75-point bar. 
  • Two teams in this Hex finished with a perfect 15 points at home, including the group winner. Only 5 teams have run the table at home in Hex play since 1998: The United States in 2005 and 2013, Mexico in 2005 and 2009, and Costa Rica in 2013. This was the first time a team other than the US or Mexico accomplished the feat. 
  • The United States were the only team in the Hex to achieve 2 road wins on their way to 7 road points, falling a bit shy of the 8.25 road point average for group winners. 
  • Honduras achieved 11 points at home, falling just short of the 11.75 home point bar for top-3 teams. 
  • Three teams failed to accrue 4 road points: 6th place Jamaica, 5th place Panama, and 2nd place Costa Rica. Only once before has a Hex team qualified with less than 4 road points: Jamaica in 1998 (they finished third in the Hex). 
  • 17 points separated the 1st place United States from last place Jamaica. 
  • As I pointed out after 5 games, the United States was the only team to accumulate 10 points through 5 games. They went on to win the group, meaning it remains true that the group winner has always had at eaest 10 points through the first half of the Hex. 
Overall, history was a good guide for the 2013 Hexagonal. 

No comments:

Post a Comment