Home
|
Score (H)
 |
Score (A)
|
Away
|
Hex Game
|
Honduras
|
2 |
2
|
Mexico
|
2
|
Jamaica
|
1 |
1
|
Panama
|
2
|
United States
|
1 |
0
|
Costa Rica
|
2
|
Costa Rica
|
2 |
0
|
Jamaica
|
3
|
Mexico
|
0 |
0
|
United States
|
3
|
Panama
|
2 |
0
|
Honduras
|
3
|
USA vs Costa Rica
Mexico vs USA
Updated Table:
Hex
|
GP
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
GD
|
GF
|
GA
|
Pnt
|
Pts/15
|
Pts/20
|
|
Panama
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
5
|
3
|
5
|
13
|
18
|
|
Costa Rica
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
15
|
19
|
|
United States
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
15
|
19
|
|
Honduras
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
-1
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
13
|
17
|
|
Mexico
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
11
|
16
|
|
Jamaica
|
3
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
-2
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
13
|
17
|
For a discussion of the Pts/15 and Pts/20 columns, see the After 1 game report linked above.
Note: Panama, Honduras, and Mexico have played 2 of their 3 games at home.
Hex Math:
Once again, let's start with Hex history:
- Since 1998 qualifying, it has taken an average of 15.75 points to finish in the top-3 and snag an automatic berth.
- Since 1998 qualifying, it has taken an average of 20.75 points to win the group.
- Since 1998, qualifying teams out of the Hex have averaged at least 11.75 points at home
- Since 1998, qualifying teams have averaged at least 4 points on the road, group winners have averaged 8.25 points.
Of the 6 teams in the Hex, exactly one cannot hit the 11.75 points at home figure. Shockingly, that team is Mexico, the most talented team in the Hex, and a team that everyone expected to breeze through qualifying. With no team losing multiple games yet, no one has fallen below even the 8 possible road points threshold for a group winner.
Three games in, the latter looks like the story. Last time, we talked about qualifiers and group winners. The flip side to the coin is, what does the bottom of the table look like? For the purposes of this exercise, I am defining the bottom of the table as 5th and 6th place. While 4th place isn't guaranteed a World Cup berth, it does qualify that team for a playoff to qualify. The bottom two teams are simply eliminated. Let's look again at the average results for each position in the Hex:
Position
|
Home Results, GD
|
Away Results, GD
|
1st
|
12.5 Pts, +9.5
|
8.25 Pts, +1
|
2nd
|
13.25 Pts, +9.25
|
5.5 Pts, -0.75
|
3rd
|
11.75 Pts, +5.75
|
4 Pts, -4.5
|
4th
|
9.75 Pts, +3.5
|
4 Pts, -4.5
|
5th
|
7.75 Pts, +2
|
1.5 Pts, -7
|
6th
|
3.75 Pts, -3.5
|
1 Pts, -10.75
|
The 5th place team averages less than 10 points, and the 6th place team averages under 5. Looking a little bit closer, the 5th place team averages over 5 losses in 10 games. The 6th place team averages just shy of 7. That's a loss every other game (more for As noted above, through 3 games no team has more than 1 loss.
Put another way, the average difference between 1st place and 6th place has been 16 points, historically. That is a chasm. After 3 games in 2013, 3 points separate 1st from 6th, more like a stone's throw. Commentator after commentator has made the point that this Hex looks more competitive than ever. So far, the results bear that out. Now, this is both good and bad for a team like Mexico, who has left a considerable amount of points on the table.
- On the plus side, if the bottom of the table is more competitive, it stands to reason that the top of the table won't accumulate as many points as usual. It may not take 21 points to win the group, or 16 points to qualify.
- On the minus side, if little separates the 6 teams, leaving points on the table is likely going to be harder to overcome.
Next Games:
The teams now get a breather, and then will each play 3 games between June 4 and June 18. On June 19 each team will have played 6 games, and we will start to get a good sense of each team's qualification chances.
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