Wednesday, September 11, 2013

CONCACAF Hexagonal, Match 8

Previous Hex Reports:
Preview
After 1 game
After 3 games
After 4 games
After 5 games
After 6 games

All Results:
Date
Home
Score (H)
Score (A)
Away
Hex Game
6-Feb
Honduras
2
1
United States
1
6-Feb
Mexico
0
0
Jamaica
1
6-Feb
Panama
2
2
Costa Rica
1
22-Mar
Honduras
2
2
Mexico
2
22-Mar
Jamaica
1
1
Panama
2
22-Mar
United States
1
0
Costa Rica
2
26-Mar
Costa Rica
2
0
Jamaica
3
26-Mar
Mexico
0
0
United States
3
26-Mar
Panama
2
0
Honduras
3
4-Jun
Jamaica
0
1
Mexico
6
7-Jun
Costa Rica
1
0
Honduras
4
7-Jun
Jamaica
1
2
United States
4
7-Jun
Panama
0
0
Mexico
4
11-Jun
Honduras
2
0
Jamaica
5
11-Jun
Mexico
0
0
Costa Rica
5
11-Jun
United States
2
0
Panama
5
18-Jun
Costa Rica
2
0
Panama
6
18-Jun
United States
1
0
Honduras
6
6-Sep
Costa Rica
3
1
United States
7
6-Sep
Mexico
1
2
Honduras
7
6-Sep
Panama
0
0
Jamaica
7
10-Sep
Honduras
2
2
Panama
8
10-Sep
Jamaica
1
1
Costa Rica
8
10-Sep
United States
2
0
Mexico
8

Updated Table:
Hex
GP
W
D
L
GD
GF
GA
Pnt
Pts/15
Pts/20
United States
8
5
1
2
4
10
6
16
15
20
Costa Rica
8
4
3
1
6
11
5
15
15
19
Honduras
8
3
2
3
0
10
10
11
11
15
Panama
8
1
5
2
-2
7
9
8
9
12
Mexico
8
1
5
2
-2
4
6
8
6
12
Jamaica
8
0
4
4
-6
3
9
4
5
8

Hex Math: 
Two of CONCACAF's 3.5 bids to the World Cup Finals have been secured. The United States and Costa Rica punched their tickets to Brazil thanks to last night's results.

So let's look at the remaining 4 teams vying for 1.5 spots.

Honduras - 11 points
Remaining schedule: vs Costa Rica, at Jamaica
History is on Honduras' side. Since 1998, of the 12 teams who were in top-3 position after 8 games, only 1 failed to finish in an automatic qualifier spot (Honduras, in 2001). Their remaining schedule likely includes two teams with nothing to play for: a home game with already qualified Costa Rica, who is winless away from home and a trip to Jamaica, who is likely to be eliminated by this game.

Panama - 8 points
Remaining schedule: at Mexico, vs United States
Mexico - 8 points
Remaining schedule: vs Panama, at Costa Rica
This will be very interesting. These two teams play each other (in Mexico, which would normally be a sizable advantage for the hosts, but this year not so much) and then each get a team that will have nothing to play for. Mexico travels to Costa Rica while Panama hosts the United States. Obviously if one of these teams wins the head-to-head match they are in the driver's seat for the playoff against New Zealand, but if they draw that game, that fourth spot will likely come down to goal differential/goals scored. Right now Mexico and Panama each have a goal differential of -2, but Panama has scored 3 more goals than Mexico throughout qualifying.

Jamaica - 4 points
Remaining schedule: at United States, vs Honduras
There is no history to suggest a team with just 4 points after 8 games has any hope of qualification. Then again, the 4th place slot in the hex would usually be out of reach for a team in Jamaica's situation. Their schedule doesn't do them any favors, with the United States away and Honduras home. The US may have nothing to play for, but they also have yet to concede a goal at home. Honduras may or may not have qualified already and thus may provide a chance for Jamaica to steal a win.

Remaining Schedule:
11-Oct
Honduras


Costa Rica
9
11-Oct
Mexico


Panama
9
11-Oct
United States


Jamaica
9
15-Oct
Costa Rica


Mexico
10
15-Oct
Jamaica


Honduras
10
15-Oct
Panama


United States
10
The final games of the hexagonal will be played 10/11/2013 and 10/15/2013. 

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