CONCACAF Hexagonal, Match 1

Date	Home	Score (H)	Score (A)	Away	Hex Game
6-Feb	Honduras	2	1	United States	1
6-Feb	Mexico	0	0	Jamaica	1
6-Feb	Panama	2	2	Costa Rica	1

We are into the Hexagonal (final) round of CONCACAF qualifying. The United States struck first but fell to Honduras 2-1 in their first loss to Honduras in CONCACAF qualifying. In even more shocking news, Mexico was held to a scoreless draw at home against Jamaica. Rounding out the action, Panama saw its 2-0 lead evaporate as Costa Rica stormed back to salvage a 2-2 road tie.

I'd love to discuss the games (specifically Honduras-USA) here, but since beIn Sport owns the rights to all American away qualifying matches, and my cable carrier practically no one carries beIn Sport, watching 4 of the 10 qualifying matches isn't an option (why only 4? ESPN finally acquired the rights to Mexico-USA). Hooray for money over fans!

So instead of game recaps, let's do some Hexagonal math.

Regional heavyweights the USA and Mexico have to be disappointed with their first game results, but just how much hand wringing should each be doing? Let's start out by referring to a couple of tidbits in my Hexagonal preview:

• Since 1998 qualifying, it has taken an average of 15.75 points to finish in the top-3 and snag an automatic berth. 
• Since 1998 qualifying, it has taken an average of 20.75 points to win the group. 
• Winning all of your home games would net a team 15 points. Winning all home games and drawing all road games would net a team 20 points.

So to qualify for the World Cup, you should be shooting for 16 points, and to win the group, you need about 21. As noted above, merely winning all of your home games gets you to 15 points, while adding all draws on the road gets you to 20. This fits with the general coach- and player-speak of how you really want to win at home but getting a point (for a tie) on the road is a good result.

Below are the Hex standings after 1 game: I have added a Pts/15 column and Pts/20 column. The Pts/15 column is how many points the team can achieve by winning all of its remaining home games (factoring in the results from this week's games as well). The Pts/20 column shows how many points a team will earn by winning all of their remaining home games and drawing all of their remaining road games. 

Hex	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	Pnt	Pts/15	Pts/20
Honduras	1	1	0	0	1	2	1	3	15	20
Costa Rica	1	0	1	0	0	2	2	1	15	20
Jamaica	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	15	20
Mexico	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	13	18
Panama	1	0	1	0	0	2	2	1	13	18
United States	1	0	0	1	-1	1	2	0	15	19

By the Pts/15 and Pts/20 measure, Mexico and Panama look to have been hurt the most by these results despite the fact that only the US emerged from game 1 with no points. That's because Mexico and Panama lost out on 2 "expected points" by drawing, instead of winning, at home. The US, on the other hand, merely lost out on 1 "expected" point by losing instead of drawing on the road.

So is it really that simple? Is that how it works? 

Let's take a closer look at the 6 positions in the Hexagonal since 1998 (when the World Cup expanded from 24 to 32 teams, and the Hexagonal format was adopted for CONCACAF's final round of qualifying). 

Position	Home Results, GD	Away Results, GD
1st	12.5 Pts, +9.5	8.25 Pts, +1
2nd	13.25 Pts, +9.25	5.5 Pts, -0.75
3rd	11.75 Pts, +5.75	4 Pts, -4.5
4th	9.75 Pts, +3.5	4 Pts, -4.5
5th	7.75 Pts, +2	1.5 Pts, -7
6th	3.75 Pts, -3.5	1 Pts, -10.75

What we see is that there is a divide between the top-3 teams (automatic qualifiers) and the bottom-3 teams in the Hex: The qualifiers take care of business at home. More interesting is how so little separates the top 3 qualifiers when we look at home performance. We're looking at merely a 1.5 point difference between the three teams, and second place has actually out-pointed first place at home (more on this at a later date). 

How does this make any sense? Well, look at the away results. This is where the top team separates itself from the pack. 8 points works out to 2 wins and 2 ties. Basically, if you want to win the Hex, you achieve this by going on the road and losing a grand total of 1 game. The only year this wasn't true was 1998, and in that year group-winner Mexico went 1-4-0 on the road, not dropping a game (!) and netting 7 points.

So what does this mean for our teams after 1 game? Well, let's go back to what we learned by looking at 4 Hexagonals:

• You want to get wins at home, and winning all 5 games gets you 15 points. Historically, the best team in a hex year bags about 12-13 points at home, which works out to a 4-0-1 record. 
• Drawing on the road is a good result, and 5 (home) wins and 5 (away) draws is 20 points, and the winning hex team averages 20.75 points. However, since teams don't usually win all of their home games, the team that emerges atop the Hex usually bags a couple of road wins. 

So now let's look again: 

Every team, even Mexico and Panama, are still on track to earn the 12-13 points the top Hex team usually ends up with. Mexico and Panama simply have no margin for error if they want to reach that level. Similarly, the United States has no margin for error if they want to win the group, as, in order to get 8 road points, they need 2 wins and 2 ties in their remaining 4 road games. 

However, if we're merely looking at qualification, the burden lifts a bit from the US, as 4 points requires only a single win and a single draw on the road, meaning their margin for error is still considerable. However, Mexico and Panama still are a bit under the gun, as qualifying teams average at least 11.75 points at home, meaning they're still without any margin for error to hit that number. 

At first glance, the loss for the USA looks hurtful, but looking further at the numbers, it's actually Mexico and Panama who should be the "most" worried after game one of the Hex.

Next games are March 22nd and March 26th.