Monday, September 11, 2017

The Recap: Game 1

Note: I'm shifting the focus of this blog from looking at the entire league to making the theme much more Seahawks-centric.

The 2013 Seahawks were destroyers of worlds. A team with the depth of the Mariana Trench without any glaring weakness (sure the offensive line wasn't anything close to a strength...and it was decidedly below average for the half-season where the tackles were Paul McQuistan and Michael Bowie), and that season ended with a championship.

The 2014 Seahawks were also destroyers of worlds. Most of what you said about the 2013 team you could say about the 2014 version...except the team's weakness (offensive line) was a bit more pronounced, and the team was appreciably shallower. Instead of an embarrassment of riches, the 2014 team's wealth of talent generated the most minor of blushes. Despite this attrition, plus the need to use that depth due to injury and locker room carcinogens, this season ended just 1 yard shy of a repeat.

The 2015 Seahawks still had top-end talent to rival any other team in the league...but now their weakness was a festering sore that teams could pick at until it oozed. It took Seattle 8 weeks to realize their mad science experiment was pulling down the team's shot at contention. They made some adjustments (mostly putting someone who had played center before at center and getting the ball out of Russell Wilsons hands sooner) and played some lesser defensive lines, and turned things around to get back to the playoffs...where the offense imploded in the face of stout, quick defensive lines. This season ended in the divisional round.

The 2016 Seahawks got even younger on the offensive line, and doubled down on the mad science experiment. It worked in one case (Justin Britt flourished at his third position: center), and looked pretty ugly everywhere else. Once again, the offensive line helped weigh down the team, putting a ceiling on what this team could accomplish, at least until Earl Thomas got hurt and the defense collapsed under the weight it was asked to carry (that pesky lack of depth again). Again, the season ended 2 rounds shy of the final game.

This off-season, Seattle attacked the shallowness of their depth, and the preseason showed massive improvement here. They also put some non-draft resources at the offensive line, hoping to get further from "abysmal" and closer to "average". Preseason results were mixed here, but fans weren't without hope. The team seemed to have its talent edge back, its swagger back, its togetherness back. One question remained: would this be a team allowed to reach its ceiling? Or would a familiar anchor limit how high they could soar?

Game Recap:
This was vintage early season Seahawks. The offense took almost 1.33 quarters to get a first down. There was no rhythm. Seattle tried coming out passing: incompletions and sacks. They tried establishing the running game and instead established that Eddie Lacy is no Marshawn Lynch. On Seattle's first 5 drives they ran 18 plays for 25 yards and punted 5 times. On their 6th drive they went 74 yards in 8 plays and scored the first half's only points with a 33-yard Blair Walsh field goal.

On the plus side, yes, Sheldon Richardson does make the defensive line a devastating force of nature. Seattle was getting clear and sustained pressure with their front four in both base AND nickel alignments. I mean, the Packers scored zero points in the first half. That's insane! Then factor in that Seattle lost their second starting cornerback AND their only proven nickel CB less than 6 minutes into the game. If the opposing quarterback was anyone but Aaron Rodgers, the stats would have been even more eye-popping for the defense, but the shoutout was pretty nice by itself.

The second half began well, as the Packers punted after 5 plays. Then the Seahawks faltered. Seattle went 15 yards the wrong way on their first drive of the second half, and on their final play of that drive, Wilson was sacked and coughed up the ball, giving Green Bay 1st and goal at the 6. One play later the Packers took a lead they would not relinquish.

The offensive line wasn't the only familiar bugaboo that sunk the Seahawks in this game. They went 0/2 in the red zone, settling for field goals on both trips. The running game did not inspire much faith in goal-to-go situations, and Wilson was not able to find open receivers thanks to good coverage and a lack of time to throw. Third downs were also a problem, for a myriad of reasons, including multiple drops from offensive weapon Jimmy Graham.

This was probably the toughest game on Seattle's schedule, and they are far from the only team to struggle offensively this week. The defense looks back to the unit that led the league for 4 years, the team appears to have dodged the 1st week injury grenade, and the offense showed glimpses, especially when they played with pace.

This team has lofty goals, but after one game, we can't say they are any closer to shoring up their most glaring weakness (offensive line and red zone efficiency). Those factors are likely what will determine where this season ends, and they clearly still have work to do on both.

Around the League:
Watching the Sunday Night game, the Giants were a pretty good carbon copy of the Seahawks. The offensive line couldn't hold up for anything but the quickest of passes, the running game couldn't get traction, and the defense started strong but clearly wore down as the game went on. In fairness to Seattle's defense, the Giants D worse down much sooner than Seattle's D did.

You have to feel for Chicago receiver Kevin White. If he does need season-ending surgery for his latest injury (collarbone), he will have played 5 games in 4 years on his rookie contract. And now the Bears need to make a decision on his 5th year option.

Yes the Rams defense essentially ate Scott Tolzien's soul, but Jared Goff's effort shows how important coaching is to young quarterbacks, and should be the final straw for the Jeff Fisher as an NFL head coach.

Shoutouts:
To Seattle's defense. The back seven covered pretty well, especially considering rookie Shaq Griffin and Patriots castoff Justin Coleman had to cover for the ejected Jeremy Lane. And the front four was very disruptive (4 sacks, 10 knockdowns, and 10 hits). They kept the pressure up into the second half before wilting due to the 2:1 time of possession disadvantage.

To Aaron Rodgers. Seattle's defense came to play today.  But Rodgers decisively won the 3rd down battle (the Packers were 9/16 for the game), including at least 3 3rd-and-10-or-longers at the end of the first half and beginning of the second. Whether it was with his feet, his arm, or both, Rodgers kept drives alive and wore down Seattle's defense. Even taking out the 6-yard touchdown drive set up by the fumble, Rodgers led the Packers to enough points to win the game.

To Chris Carson. It sure seems like he's going to end up the starter sooner rather than later, right? Three running backs got touches in this game. Lacy had 5 touches for 3 yards. Prosise had 4 touches for 11. Carson had 7 for 49. And just watching him he seemed to be moving at a different speed than the other two.

To Blair Walsh. He cleared another hurdle by going 3-for-3 on kicks on the day.

To Jon Ryan. He was a weapon today. Six punts for a 45.8 yard average with 4 pinning Green Bay inside their 20, including multiple punts pinning the Packers inside their own 5.

Condemnations:
To Tom Cable. It's a bit of a mistake to say Seattle hasn't poured resources into its offensive line. They haven't poured monetary resources into the line (until this offseason when they extended Justin Britt). They have poured draft resources into the line: 3 1st, 2 2nd, 2 3rd, and 2 4th round picks under the current regime. Does this mean they should be vying with Dallas for league status as the top OL? No, Dallas has multiple mid-to-high 1st round picks on its line, AND it has paid to keep those players. But is it reasonable to expect better than bottom-feeding? I'd say so. It was one thing when the offense took a few weeks to hit its stride, but you knew that by the end of the season there would be clear improvement. We didn't have that in 2016, and there's no guarantee we get it this year. He may not be getting the best groceries, but he's helping pick those groceries, so at some point someone needs to "tell the truth" to the offensive line coach.

To Eddie Lacy. Yikes, Lacy looked s-l-o-w out there. And with the current state of the run blocking, slow is a death sentence for the run game. The thought after the signing was that Lacy could use his girth and agility to make chicken salad (positive runs) out of chicken...well, you get the idea. That was not happening against Green Bay.

To Russell Wilson. Wilson was under siege for much of the game, and he was let down by multiple receivers as well (Jimmy Graham being a prime culprit), but Wilson was culpable as well. He missed what would have been a touchdown to a streaking Tyler Lockett (albeit under pressure), and his fumble on the first drive of the second half gave Green Bay the ball at the Seattle 6. At this point it looks like Dom Capers has Russell's number. In his last 4 games against Green Bay, Russell has this line:

Comp
Att
Yds
TD
INT
Sacked
Yds
Rating
Rush
Yards
17.25
31.25
203.25
1
2.5
3.25
17.75
62.375
5.75
40.5

It's not like Russell is getting much help, but if he's going to be considered top-echelon, he does need to do better.

To the officials: No, they weren't the reason Seattle lost the game. They absolutely made a difference in the game by calling questionable penalties on Seattle (and missing a clear facemask penalty on Green Bay) on an interception return that went for a touchdown and taking 6 points off of the board. Personally, I disagree with their decision to not throw a flag when Jimmy Graham was mauled on a pass into the end zone (the officials determined the ball wasn't catchable, which is a legitimate argument).

That will wrap it up for game 1.


Thursday, September 7, 2017

What I'm Watching for Tonight

Football is finally back as the 2017 season kicks off tonight with the Chiefs playing the Patriots. Here's what I'm interested in seeing:

Patriots:
1. The offense on 3rd downs
How did the Patriots come back in their last 2 Super Bowls? By dominating on 3rd down on both sides of the ball. A large part of this success on offense was the Brady-to-Edelman connection. Edelman is out for the season, which has made a big difference to their 3rd down offense in the past...but this year Brady has new weapons to mitigate this loss.
2. The defense
The Patriots traditionally use a bend-but-don't-break defense until the opponent reaches the red zone, then turn up the heat. The years they have won the Super Bowl recently, they've had enough talent on defense to make enough plays to win the big games. They have plenty of talent in the secondary, and the linebacker corps is good, but their pass rush looks weak on paper.
3. Brady's connections
When new receivers come to town, it tends to be very hit or miss as to whether they pick up the offense quickly, slowly, or not at all. Brady isn't known for his patience, so while these additions look terrific on paper, will that translate? And will it take some time to do so?

Chiefs
1. Can Tyreek Hill be a focal point?
Hill was a big part of boosting the Chiefs offense in the second half of last season. Whether it was improving field position as a return threat or using his speed to stretch the defense as a receiver and runner, it added a dimension that had been lacking.  Now, with Jeremy Maclin gone, Hill has to play the part of a #1 receiver to keep the offense from being limited. Can he do it, or is he another Devin Hester?
2. The pass rush
The Chiefs have a great inventory of pass rushers on paper, but they haven't had all of them healthy at the same time the past couple of seasons. If they're going to compete with the best teams in the NFL, the pass rush will have to lead the way defensively. Three seasons ago, it did and they demolished the Pats. Two seasons ago in the playoffs it did not and they never really had a chance.
3. Can Andy Reid manage the game?
Reid is a fascinating and frustrating coach. He's brilliant at scheming offense, and he clearly is a respected leader of a football team. But he's awful at game management. Calling timeouts, deciding what the challenge, getting selectively aggressive, or using the hurry up offense when behind, Reid tends to fail at them all. Im not hopeful, as Reid has had almost 20 years as a head coach to improve and hasn't. But if the Chiefs are to take the next step to true contenders, he's going to have to get better.