NFL Picks, Week 8

I'd comment on last night's game, but that would have involved watching it for more than 2 minutes at a time. No thank you.

As always, home team in CAPS.

Dallas (+3) over DETROIT 
I think Dallas has a little more juice on defense and around their QB and #1 WR on offense, and that's the difference in this game. Dallas wins outright.

KANSAS CITY (-7.5) over Cleveland 
I'm a complete fool. The Browns were starting Brandon Weeden on purpose and I kept picking them to cover their games. Now that I have finally wised up, they went and benched Weeden for Jason Campbell (their 3rd quarterback to start this season and their 20th since the franchise was re-born in 1999). It's interesting that Campbell gets his first Browns start at Kansas City, because Campbell is essentially a poor man's Alex Smith. He's very willing to throw to his check-down rather than risk a turnover. Unfortunately for Campbell, Smith is better at it and his supporting cast is better.

NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Miami 
I don't believe Miami is going to score many points. Ryan Tannehill seems to be regressing and Belichick should be able to help said regression, even down so many important bodies on defense. The question is whether or not Miami's defense can hold down Tom Brady to keep the game tight. I'm not predicting an explosion, but Brady and the rest will do enough to win comfortably.

NEW ORLEANS (-11) over Buffalo 
New Orleans has home field, the home crowd, and is coming off the bye week. Buffalo finally has a competent defense and Thad Lewis at quarterback.

PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) over New York Giants 
With the Giants down to Peyton Hillis and some guy I've never heard of (Michael Cox) at running back, this is going to be a one dimensional team. And Philadelphia should be able to outscore a sputtering one-dimensional team.

San Francisco (-16) over JACKSONVILLE*
*game being played in London, UK
As much as I'm completely opposed to any attempt to add an NFL team in Europe, the good people of London deserve something for sitting through the slop the NFL keeps giving them and coming back for more. Maybe the NFL can "settle" with the citizens of Great Britain and give them some money for their pain and suffering. Just don't give them a frigging team.

OAKLAND (+1.5) over Pittsburgh 
I don't trust either of these teams, but Oakland might have the stronger defense in this game. Give me the home team and the points.

CINCINNATI (-6.5) over New York Jets 
Geno Smith has been better than I expected, and for a rookie, he's been pretty good. Heck, making the Jets offense look anything other than putrid is quite an accomplishment. Unfortunately for Geno, he's following the likes of Andrew Luck, RG3, and Russell Wilson, so instead of inspiring hope, he's compared to those guys and viewed as a disappointment. That all being said, I don't trust him with that (lack of a) supporting offensive cast against a good defense like Cincinnati's.

Washington (+13) over DENVER
As much as I don't trust Washington's defense to stop Denver, I don't really trust Denver's defense to stop RG3 and company either.  Denver's defense is very dependent on their pass rush, and RG3 is very good at frustrating a pass rush (to put it mildly). With RG3 looking like he's rounding into form over the past couple of weeks, something tells me this isn't the blowout many are expecting. Denver wins, but they don't run away with it.

ARIZONA (-1) (over) Atlanta 
On the one hand, if you look at the quarterbacks, Atlanta has a sizable advantage. Also, every team that has played the Seahawks (Arizona's week 7 opponent) this season has lost their subsequent game. But on the other hand, Atlanta has no pass rush and no one to cover the Cardinals receivers. Without pressure, Palmer will hit those receivers, and Arizona's defense will make like tough on Matt Ryan and company. If I thought Stephen Jackson was healthy for the Falcons, that might be enough to swing me, but while he's playing, he won't be close to 100%.

Green Bay (-8.5) over MINNESOTA 
I've been dogging Green Bay for their defensive woes, and they go out and hold their last 2 opponents to 17 and 13 points. Granted, those opponents were Baltimore and Cleveland, but given how wretched the Packers' D looked early in the season, it's still substantial progress. Plus, who trusts Minnesota's offense to be any better than those two anyway?

Seattle (-11) over ST. LOUIS 
St. Louis is starting Kellen Clemens at quarterback for Monday night's game. Oh, you don't know anything about Kellen Clemens? Well, here's all you need to know. Faced with the prospect of starting Clemens, the Rams reached out to Brett Favre to see if he'd be interested in another comeback. Yes, that Brett Favre. The 44-year-old one. I know. No, really.

This week: 1-0 (hoo-ray!)
Last week: 6-9 (.400)
2013 season: 41-63-3 (.397)