Road favorites were 4-2-1 against the spread last season in midweek games, with no losses after week 6. In addition, the road favorite won 5 of the 7 games.
This year, road favorites are 3-0 against the spread. In fact, home teams have only covered twice overall through 8 weeks.
This week's matchup features two teams going in opposite directions:
Cincinnati started the season 2-2, but no they are rolling, having won four straight behind both their stifling defense and an all-of-a-sudden dangerous offense.
Miami started the season 3-0, but then were blasted by the Saints on Monday Night Football, and haven't won a game since. Worse yet, Ryan Tannehill seems to be regressing.
The Dolphins have a stout defensive front, and that's about it. They have no running game, and one of their top receivers was lost last week with an injury.
Cincinnati has a better defensive front, a running game, one of the top receivers in the game (AJ Green), a reciever who caught 4 touchdowns last week (Marvin Jones), and a quarterback who seemed to be taking a serious step forward (Andy Dalton).
So yeah, give me the road favorite Bengals to cover in this one.
Cincinnati (-3) over MIAMI
2013 Midweek Picks: 5-3