NFL Picks, Week 5 - Thursday Edition

Facts about this game

• Cleveland and Buffalo both enter this game with 2-2 records.
• Cleveland has beaten Minnesota and Cincinnati and lost to Miami and Baltimore.
• Buffalo has beaten Carolina and Baltimore while losing to New England and the Jets. 
• Cleveland is undefeated since Brandon Weeden was benched injured and replaced by Brian Hoyer.
• Buffalo's main advantage in this game is their two-headed rushing attack of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. 
• EJ Manuel has thrown for more than 250 yards just once in his first 4 games. Buffalo leans on its running game substantially.
• Spiller is a game-time decision with an ankle injury and Jackson is expected to play but knicked up with a knee injury. 
• A win would put the Browns in first place in their division in October, which may trigger the apocalypse. 

In the end, I go back to my old standby rule for mid-week games: if the visiting team isn't significantly better than the home team, and both are on short rest, take the home team to cover*.

* Unless the spread is double-digits, half of the game will be played in a monsoon, and Tom Brady is more likely to bite the head off of his receivers for running the wrong route than he is to throw a touchdown pass to them. In that case, take the points. 

CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Buffalo

2013 Midweek Picks: 3-1