Home team in CAPS.
Byes: Miami, Atlanta
Cincinnati (-7) over BUFFALO
I'm trusting the Bengals defense against a rookie quarterback. Considering they just held Tom Brady to 6 points, I should feel better about this pick than I do.
CLEVELAND (+2.5) over Detroit
Yikes, back Detroit on the road or back Brandon Weeden...right now I'm guessing Calvin Johnson doesn't play, so I'm giving this to Cleveland.
KANSAS CITY (-7.5) over Oakland
The Chiefs will sit back and wait for Oakland to beat itself, and the Raiders will oblige.
Green Bay (-2.5) over BALTIMORE
Baltimore's offense simply won't be able to keep up, even against the decimated Packers defense.
Carolina (+2.5) MINNESOTA
I'm forcing myself not to over-react to last week's dismal showing by the Panthers.
Philadelphia (-1) over TAMPA BAY
I think Philly's tempo will give Tampa Bay's defense problems.
HOUSTON (-7) over St. Louis
That defense should eat Sam Bradford alive, even if Matt Schaub remains catatonic.
NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) over Pittsburgh
The Jets defense is too good for a team as one-dimensional as Pittsburgh to come in and win this one.
DENVER (-26.5) over Jacksonville
The Seahawks stopped playing midway through the third quarter in week 3 against the Jaguars and still won by 28. My only concern is Chad Henne comes on in garbage time and leads the Jags to a backdoor cover.
SEATTLE (-13) over Tennessee
Seattle covers at home.
New Orleans (+1) over NEW ENGLAND
I never thought I'd say this, but New Orleans is just a more complete team than New England is right now.
SAN FRANCISCO (-11) over Arizona
The 49ers defense and running game again does enough to cover for a putrid passing game.
DALLAS (-5.5) over Washington
I can't trust Washington's defense to do much better than Denver's in slowing down the Dallas offense.
Indianapolis (-1.5 ) over SAN DIEGO
Indianapolis is a very good team. San Diego is not anything close to a very good team.
Last week: 4-10 (.286)
2013 season: 30-44-3 (.409)