NFL Picks, Week 5

Quick-hitter picks this week. Home team in CAPS. 

Byes: Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington

New Orleans (Even) over CHICAGO 

The pressure brought by the Saints defense will lead to Bad Jay Cutler for the second consecutive week. 

New England (Even) over CINCINNATI

I don't trust Andy Dalton to keep pace with Tom Brady, and I don't trust Cincinnati's defense to hold Brady down. Not after last week's showing against the Browns. 

Jacksonville (+11) over ST. LOUIS 

I can't believe I'm taking Jacksonville, but St. Louis shouldn't be favored by double-digits against anyone. I'm counting on Jacksonville running MJD 40 or so times in this one to keep all scoring low. 

Baltimore (+3) over MIAMI 

Ray Lewis-era Baltimore would struggle against lesser foes, mainly because they neglected the running game. Then they'd come back roaring the next week against a good opponent and make Ray Rice more than a footnote in the game plan. I'm trusting the specter of Ray to bring the team and coaches back in line after last week. 

NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) over Philadelphia 

Eli Manning should be fine, even with that offensive line, against Philly's (complete lack of) defense. 

Detroit (+7) over GREEN BAY

I just don't think Green Bay's defense is any good. 

Seattle (-1) over INDIANAPOLIS 

I don't think Indy has the talent to make Seattle's either defense look mortal or offense look inept like the Texans did. 

Kansas City (-2.5) over TENNESSEE 

This was going to be a great game until Ryan Fitzpatrick became a big part of it. 

Carolina (-1.5) over ARIZONA 

Carson Palmer will be running (very slowly and awkwardly) for his life against Carolina's defensive front 7. 

Denver (-7) DALLAS 

There are only a handful of teams who should be single-digit underdogs to the Broncos right now. The Cowboys are not on that list. 

Houston (+7) over SAN FRANCISCO

An angry Houston led by a furious JJ Watt against a suspect 49ers offense? This could get ugly. 

San Diego (-4.5) OAKLAND 

Phillip Rivers should carve up the lowly Oakland defense. 

ATLANTA (-9.5) over New York Jets 

Atlanta's defense may be bad, but they're good enough to force Geno Smith into some critical mistakes on the road. 

This week: 1-0 (whoo-hooo!!!)
Last week: 9-6 (.600)
2013 season: 26-34-3 (.437)