I just can't back Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road against a playoff team. I know the Colts are scuffling right now, but Tennessee just doesn't have quite enough to hang with the Colts for 60 minutes.
Denver (-5) over KANSAS CITY
At best Kansas City will be playing with one of their two rush linebackers this weekend, and he'll be hobbled. Kansas City didn't sniff pressure on Peyton Manning 2 weeks ago when both of them were in there. Let's just check one thing...
Okay, game time temperature will be above 32 degrees, Peyton will work this Sunday!
Jacksonville (+7) over CLEVELAND
Two words: Brandon Weeden. Okay, maybe a few more words: Brandon Weeden looks set to start this game for the Browns. The Browns will get some offense just from Weeden chucking it up to Josh Gordron, but there won't be much in the way of scoring. Cleveland wins, but by less than a touchdown.
Tampa Bay (+8) over CAROLINA
Carolina's offense isn't good enough to pull away from Tampa Bay. That's not intended as a dig at Carolina, Tampa's defense has plenty of talent on it. Panthers win, but fail to cover.
MINNESOTA (-1) over Chicago
Did you see what St. Louis did to the Bears' rush (lack of a) defense last week? They did that without an Adrian Peterson or a decent quarterback. Minnesota doesn't have a decent quarterback either, but they do have an Adrian Peterson.
Arizona (+3) PHILADELPHIA
Philadelphia may be rolling offensively, but they haven't faced a halfway decent defense during their run (or really at all since the Chiefs in week 3). Arizona is a legitimate top-3 defense right now. I'm also not buying Philadelphia's defense has turned the corner into anything other than a below-average unit. Arizona wins this one outright.
Miami (+2) over NEW YORK JETS
I know the Jets win at home and lose on the road. But the Jets offense is regressing before our eyes, and Miami is actually playing fairly well under the shadow of hazing-gate.
BUFFALO (-3) over Atlanta
I think Buffalo is the better team right now. And no, I never dreamed I'd be saying that before this season started.
SAN FRANCISCO (-8.5) over St. Louis
St. Louis doesn't actually have an effective running game, it juts looked that way because the Bears haven't played defense in about a month. San Francisco will put the kibosh on the running game, and then it will be up to Kellen Clemens to
New England (-7.5) over HOUSTON
Normally, you'd worry about a letdown after that tremendous comeback last Sunday night, but Houston has completely imploded at this point.
Cincinnati (+1) over SAN DIEGO
The Bengals should be able to put up at least token resistance to San Diego's offense, unlike Kansas City last week.
NBC IS STUPID (-17) Everyone loves the NFC East
New York Giants (-1) WASHINGTON
Why on earth is didn't NBC flex someone else to the Sunday night slot?!? You can't tell me Philadelphia vs Arizona wasn't available. Anyway, Washington's tailspin seems more severe than the Giants' version.
SEATTLE (-5) over New Orleans
Seattle's home field advantage will be rocking for a prime time game, especially a showdown with the only other threat for the NFC's #1 seed. That, and Seattle's superior balance will win out in this battle of current NFC titans.
This week: 1-2 (Thank goodness for Pittsburgh's late cover)
Last week: 9-5 (.643)
2013 season: 75-95-6 (.443)