CONCACAF Hexagonal Preview

Let's take a break from the weekly NFL season updates and move to the "other" football. That's right, soccer. Specifically, World Cup 2014 (Brazil) qualifying. Last night the draw for the final round of CONCACAF (North America) qualifying was set, so we now know the exact schedule for the 6-team, 10-game Hexagonal.

First, let's take a look at how we got here:

In the previous (3rd) round, 6 teams received byes into this round and 6 teams won their way into it.
6 byes: Mexico, USA, Jamaica, Costa Rica, Cuba, Honduras
6 winners: El Salvador, Guyana, Panama, Canada, Guatemala, and Antigua and Barbuda

These teams (2 from each above "pot") were drawn into 3 groups of 4, and then each team played all others in their group home and away. At the end of that 6-game set, here were the standings.

Group A	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	Pnt
United States	4	1	1	5	11	6	13
Jamaica	3	1	2	3	9	6	10
Guatemala	3	1	2	1	9	8	10
Antigua and Barbuda	0	1	5	-6	3	9	1
Group B	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	Pnt
Mexico	6	0	0	13	15	2	18
Costa Rica	3	1	2	9	14	5	10
El Salvador	1	2	3	-3	8	11	5
Guyana	0	1	5	-19	5	24	1
Group C	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	Pnt
Honduras	3	2	1	9	12	3	11
Panama	3	2	1	4	6	2	11
Canada	3	1	2	-4	6	10	10
Cuba	0	1	5	-9	1	10	1

As indicated by the green highlighting, the top two teams from each group advanced to the final (4th) round of qualifying. Qualifying for everyone except Mexico came down to the last game.

So the 6 teams that are moving on are

	Country	Ranking (11/2012)	Ranking in CONCACAF
B1	Mexico	14	1
A1	United States	27	2
C2	Panama	46	3
A2	Jamaica	50	4
C1	Honduras	56	5
B2	Costa Rica	64	8

If you're curious, the 2 teams in CONCACAF who are currently ranked ahead of Costa Rica are Haiti (who fell in the 2nd round of qualifying) and Canada. These rankings are compiled by FIFA and updated monthly.

The Hexagonal round begins with the first games on February 6, 2013 and ends with the last games on October 15, 2013. The full schedule is as follows:

Date	Home	Score (H)	Score (A)	Away	Hex Game
6-Feb	Honduras			United States	1
6-Feb	Mexico			Jamaica	1
6-Feb	Panama			Costa Rica	1
22-Mar	Honduras			Mexico	2
22-Mar	Jamaica			Panama	2
22-Mar	United States			Costa Rica	2
26-Mar	Costa Rica			Jamaica	3
26-Mar	Mexico			United States	3
26-Mar	Panama			Honduras	3
4-Jun	Jamaica			Mexico	6
7-Jun	Costa Rica			Honduras	4
7-Jun	Jamaica			United States	4
7-Jun	Panama			Mexico	4
11-Jun	Honduras			Jamaica	5
11-Jun	Mexico			Costa Rica	5
11-Jun	United States			Panama	5
18-Jun	Costa Rica			Panama	6
18-Jun	United States			Honduras	6
6-Sep	Costa Rica			United States	7
6-Sep	Mexico			Honduras	7
6-Sep	Panama			Jamaica	7
10-Sep	Honduras			Panama	8
10-Sep	Jamaica			Costa Rica	8
10-Sep	United States			Mexico	8
11-Oct	Honduras			Costa Rica	9
11-Oct	Mexico			Panama	9
11-Oct	United States			Jamaica	9
15-Oct	Costa Rica			Mexico	10
15-Oct	Jamaica			Honduras	10
15-Oct	Panama			United States	10

And, for a team-by-team look at the schedule, see below:

Team	Costa Rica	Honduras	Jamaica	Mexico	Panama	United States
6-Feb	at Panama	UNITED STATES	at Mexico	JAMAICA	COSTA RICA	at Honduras
22-Mar	at United States	MEXICO	PANAMA	at Honduras	at Jamaica	COSTA RICA
26-Mar	JAMAICA	at Panama	at Costa Rica	UNITED STATES	HONDURAS	at Mexico
4-Jun	N/A	N/A	MEXICO	at Jamaica	N/A	N/A
7-Jun	HONDURAS	at Costa Rica	UNITED STATES	at Panama	MEXICO	at Jamaica
11-Jun	at Mexico	JAMAICA	at Honduras	COSTA RICA	at United States	PANAMA
18-Jun	PANAMA	at United States	N/A	N/A	at Costa Rica	HONDURAS
6-Sep	UNITED STATES	at Mexico	at Panama	HONDURAS	JAMAICA	at Costa Rica
10-Sep	at Jamaica	PANAMA	COSTA RICA	at United States	at Honduras	MEXICO
11-Oct	at Honduras	COSTA RICA	at United States	PANAMA	at Mexico	JAMAICA
15-Oct	MEXICO	at Jamaica	HONDURAS	at Costa Rica	UNITED STATES	at Panama

The top 3 finishers in the hexagonal will receive automatic berths in the 2014 World Cup. The 4th place team will have to compete with the winner of the Oceanic Confederation's Qualifying in a home-and-home series for a berth.
That sounds difficult, but with Australia in the Asian Federation, there aren't any good teams in the Oceanic Federation. The top Oceanic team (New Zealand, who did qualify for the 2010 World Cup) is ranked 93rd.

Teams are ranked first by total points in all games, then, if tied, by best goal differential in all games, then by total goals in all games. If still tied, the same criteria are applied to games among the tied teams. Wins are worth 3 points and draws 1 point.

Interesting Notes: 

• 4 of the 6 teams return to the 2013 Hexagonal from the 2009 one: Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico, and the United States
• Since 1998
• Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States have reached the Hexagonal round all 5 times
• Honduras, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago (last in 2010) have reached the Hexagonal 3 times
• El Salvador (2010) and Panama have reached the Hexagonal round twice
• Guatemala (2006) and Canada (1998) have reached the Hexagonal round once.
• Also since 1998
• Mexico and the United States have qualified for the World Cup all 4 times
• Costa Rica has qualified for the World Cup twice (2006, 2002)
• Trinidad and Tobago qualified once (2006) by finishing 4th in the Hexagonal and beating Bahrain (5th place Asain qualifier) in a home-and-home playoff
• Jamaica qualified once (1998)
• Costa Rica finished 4th in 2010 qualifying, but lost a home-and-home playoff to Uruguay (5th place CONMEBOL - South America qualifier). Of course, Uruguay went on to finish 4th in the World Cup in 2010. 
• The United States is the only team to play 3 of its first 4 games on the road, including game #3 in Mexico, where the US won for the first time ever this year in a friendly. The US has never won a qualifying game in either Mexico or Costa Rica. 
• By contrast, the only team to get 3 of its first 4 games at home is Panama. Panama beat the US on US soil during the 2011 Gold Cup. 
• Mexico is the heavy favorite to win the group: they are the highest ranked team, they have won the last 2 CONCACAF Gold Cups (2009, 2011, beating the US in the final both times), they just won the 2012 Olympics (essentially an under-23 tournament), and they are the only team to go undefeated (and untied) in the 3rd round of qualifying. 
• The United States has finished first in the hexagonal during the last two World Cup qualifying runs. However, order of finish in confederation qualifying means nothing when it comes to the World Cup, all that matters is whether you qualified or not. 
• The United States has qualified for every World Cup since 1990 (though as host in 1994 they were given an automatic berth). 
• Since 1998 qualifying, it has taken an average of 15.75 points to finish in the top-3 and snag an automatic berth. 
• Since 1998 qualifying, it has taken an average of 20.75 points to win the group. 
• Winning all of your home games would net a team 15 points. Winning all home games and drawing all road games would net a team 20 points.