NFL Picks, Week 13

Jacksonville (+6) over BUFFALO 
With an NFL QB under center, Jacksonville's offense has actually looked pretty frisky. And if Buffalo's defense has convinced us of anything, it's that they'll fold if pushed even the slightest bit. Chad Henne will push them, and Buffalo will not be able to pull away.

CHICAGO (-3.5) over Seattle
After last week's Miami debacle, I'm not picking Seattle on the road unless given a really good reason to do so. And Chicago's current injury situation is not drastic enough to be a really good reason to do so.

San Francisco (-7.5) over ST. LOUIS
The Rams pulled out all the stops in their first game with the 49ers (the tie). I don't think they have enough left to hang with San Francisco for round 2.

New England (-7.5) over MIAMI
Part of the reason Seattle lost to Miami is the Seahawks coaching staff will not allow the offense to approach opening things up on the road. Miami's run defense is very good. Their pass defense, less so. So, like Seattle, the Patriots will find it hard to run this weekend. Unlike Seattle, the Pats have no qualms letting Tom Brady sling the ball all over the field.

NEW YORK JETS (-4.5) over Arizona
The Jets aren't good. Mark Sanchez isn't good (to put it extremely politely). But Ryan Lindley? I think ken Whisenhunt is a good coach. But with the way he's mishandeled the quarterback position since Kurt Warner retired, I couldn't blame Arizona if they decided to fire him after this season. With John Skelton (who's not good), I'd pick Arizona here.

DETROIT (-5) over Indianapolis
Detroit is in this predicament (out of playoff contention) because they played poorly early in the season against the weak part of their schedule. They're playing well now, but their schedule has gotten harder, so they can't make up the ground they lost. They might be out of the playoffs, but as long as coach Schwartz doesn't hand the other team a touchdown again with a stupidity violation, they'll have enough to beat the Colts.

GREEN BAY (-8) over Minnesota
No Harvin means Minnesota's offense can't keep up with the Packers, especially at home.

Houston (-6.5) over TENNESSEE
The mini-bye should refresh the Texans, and allow them to run all over the Titans. And make Jake Locker's life a living hell.

Carolina (-3) over KANSAS CITY
I feel pretty good about my "Pick the team playing against Kansas City if the line is under 6" algorithm.

Tampa Bay (+7) DENVER 
Tampa is playing very well right now, and they are absolutely equipped to stay with Peyton Manning in a shootout. Line is just too high.

Cleveland (-2.5) over OAKLAND
I trust Cleveland's effort and fight. Their talent level is low, but the rest is there. Plus, their secondary is actually quite good. And they're facing Carson Palmer.

Cincinnati (-2) over SAN DIEGO
San Diego may not have sunk to Philly's level of quitting, but they're not far off. Cincinnati is back to their Dalton-era stasis where they reliably beat bad teams and lose to good ones. San Diego is nothing approaching a good team.

Pittsburgh (+8.5) over BALTIMORE 
No I don't think Pittsburgh can beat Baltimore without Big Ben. But I don't see the Steelers turning the ball over 8 times again, and I don't see Baltimore doing enough to win by double digits. I expect a game much like two weeks ago, where the Ravens take no chances, look underwhelming, and sneak out with a close win over an outmanned rival.

DALLAS (-10.5) over Philadelphia
I hate doing this, because Dallas is still the team that vomits all over itself when the going gets tough. But the Eagles have quit, and I'm not backing a team of quitters.

New York Giants (-2.5) over WASHINGTON
This seems like a total Giants letdown game. They made their point against Green Bay, now they can go to sleep for a couple more weeks before turning it on again in time for the playoffs. But Washington is the lone threat left in the division, so it says here the Giants actually take this game seriously.

This week: 1-0
Last week: 5-9-2 (.375)
Season: 74-95-7 (.440)