March Madness Day 8 Recap

Intro to be uploaded later.

Game Commentary
Part 1
Part 2

The Leaderboard
1. Craig M - 86 pts*
T2. Bryan L - 77 pts (Louisville)
T2. Colin M - 77 pts*
4. Cindy F - 74 pts*
T5. James H - 71 pts*
T5. Sam OC - 71 pts*

T-Last: Paula B - 36 pts*
T-Last: Rachel G - 36 pts*
* - Selected champion has been eliminated from the tournament

Shoutouts
To Bryan L, Colin M, Sam OC, Leni P, Zahra H, Ed K (nice job Dad!), Max M, Megan K, Sue G (nice job mother-in-law), and Shelly P, for correctly selecting Michigan as a Final Four team.

To Zahra H, Ed K (nice job Dad!), Megan K, Bryan L, Colin M, Max M, and Sam OC, for correctly picking the winners of both of today's games.

To Kevin Ware, the Louisville player who suffered the gruesome leg injury. According to Rick Pitino, before Ware was taken away, he asked Pitino to call over the whole team and exhorted them to win the game. With an injury that prompted Joe Theisman to express his heartfelt sympathy. 

To both Celinda's family (including Peter G, Sue G, and Nathan G) and my family (including Ed K and Denise K), for making Easter such a terrific day today.

To Miles, for being such a wonderful kid on a pretty long day for him. Two separate parties and he was the star of the show all throughout both.

To Louisville's basketball program. On the same day that the men clinched a Final Four bid, the women knocked off Baylor 82-81 to clinch an Elite 8 bid. Yes, the same Baylor that went 40-0 last year, and followed it up with a 34-1 record (including the #1 overall seed in the Women's tourney) until today.

Condemnations
To the Houston Astros. Much has been made of how Alex Rodriguez will make more than the entire Astros team this season ($29M vs $25M, and $6M of that will go to a player who's playing for someone else this season). Most people are using this to lambast A-Rod. I get it, it's fun to do and he deserves it. But there is no good reason the good people of Houston should be subjected to 162 games watching what amounts to maybe a AAA-caliber team. That's an embarrassment.

To Major League Baseball, who put the Astros in the first game of the Major League Baseball season. Despite them putting an embarrassment of a product on the field for this season. 

Tweet of the day

Maybe Florida still has a chance against Michigan. I say that only because today is a day known for incredible comebacks. #MarchMadness
— Frank Caliendo (@FrankCaliendo) March 31, 2013

See you back here on Saturday for Day 9!

March Madness Day 8, Part 2

Louisville 85, Duke 63
I didn't catch as much of this game as any of the others in this round. And I think that was a blessing (more on that later). Honestly when I turned on the TV at halftime and saw that Duke was only down 3, I was shocked. Duke is a good team, but Louisville had consistently looked better than the field in every moment I had seen of them in this tournament.

In the second half things went about as I had expected. Louisville's suffocating defense took its toll on Duke (36.5% from the field) and Louisville's offense actually improved in the second half (they scored 50 points), and the top seed in the entire field moved on to the Final Four.

During the second half, Celinda hopped on facebook/twitter and saw the hubbub surrounding Louisville's Kevin Ware and his injury. She declared she had no interest in seeing it. I also had no interest in seeing it, but part of me felt obligated to see it, given I'm running a pool and providing daily updates on the games in the tournament. Before I made my final decision I hopped onto twitter, where I saw this tweet from Fox NFL reporter Jay Glazer:

I just saw the Kevin Ware injury. I work in 2 violent sports and i gotta say I have never seen anything THAT bad
— Jay Glazer (@JayGlazer) March 31, 2013

The two sports he's involved in are NFL football and MMA. If an MMA guy is saying that, I should probably listen to him.

In the end, I didn't. I watched the first two shots CBS had of it, and immediately closed the window I was watching. I didn't see a close-up (I didn't want to see something I wouldn't be able to un-see), but I did see his leg buckle in a thoroughly unnatural way. I have to agree with the consensus, don't go looking for it (though I'd be happy to get feedback from anyone who watched this game live during this episode).

Celinda said it best (paraphrasing), "You knew that when this happened it would either break Louisville or they'd come back stronger." For Kevin Ware's sake, I'm glad Louisville came back stronger.

March Madness Day 8, Part 1

Michigan 79, Florida 59
Two teams played in this game. One got going right from the opening tip. The other took over 15 minutes to really hit its stride. Unsurprisingly, the one that was ready from the get-go was Michigan, the team that was up 41-17 with 4 minutes to go in the first half. After that it was simply a matter of keeping Florida from putting together a series of sustained runs. Florida got within 11 points 4 minutes into the second half, Michigan responded by scoring 9 of the next 11 points and Florida never even got a whiff of being that close again.

I have to say, I didn't see Michigan coming. In fairness to me, they did lose 6 of their last 12 games on the season. On the flip side, they did win 20 of their first 21, and were ranked #1 for a time. Having watched them closely for the last 2 games, and a decent amount the game before them too, their offense is outstanding. I think where I missed the boat on them was defensively. They are much better than I gave them credit for. Combine an elite offense with a just good enough defense and you have a team capable of making a Final Four run. Combine the elite offense with a legitimately good defense and you have a serious threat to win the whole thing, like Michigan.

March Madness Day 7 Recap

Just wanted to wish everyone a Happy Easter (or a Happy Sunday if you prefer). Hope you get to spend the day with loved ones eating delicious food, and if you happen to stumble onto a basketball game or two while doing so, that sounds like a terrific way to top off your day, especially if Duke loses.

Game Commentary
Part 1
Part 2

The Leaderboard
1. Craig M - 78 pts
2. Cindy F - 74 pts*
3. James H - 63 pts*
T4. Jon J - 62 pts
T4. Josiah K - 62 pts*
T4. Barack Obama - 62 pts*
T4. Leni P - 62 pts

T-Last: Paula B - 36 pts*
T-Last: Rachel G - 36 pts*
* - Selected champion has been eliminated from the tournament

Shoutouts
To Craig M, Cindy F, and James H, the only 3 people in the pool to accumulate points today. They also double as the only three people in the pool to have Syracuse in their Final Four.

To Craig M, for being the only person with a chance of nailing 3/4 Final Four teams, depending on what happens tomorrow.

To Wichita State, no one correctly picked the 9-seed Shockers to make the Final Four out of the West region.

To Easter mornings with a young child. I can't wait to watch Miles find all of the treats the Easter Bunny left him.

Condemnations
To Steve Alford, former New Mexico coach. Just before the tournament, he signed a 10-year extension with New Mexico. Before the ink was dry on the contract, he led the 3-seed Lobos to a first round upset at the hands of Harvard. Now today, he ditched New Mexico to take the vacant UCLA job.

This is how the system works. Coaches can jump around even while under contract (there's usually a buyout). Students, on the other hand, have to sit out a year if they transfer. Even if they transfer on account of a coaching change. Sound fair? Nope. Sound consistent with how the NCAA works? Absolutely.

Tweet of the day

"Charles Barkley is in too many commercials." - Peyton Manning#MarchMadness
— Frank Caliendo (@FrankCaliendo) March 30, 2013

Happy Easter! And enjoy Day 8!

March Madness Day 7, Part 2

Wichita State 70, Ohio State 66
Wichita looked like the better team for the first 29 minutes of this game. They were more aggressive, shot much better, and attacked the glass with abandon. Ohio State was totally thrown off of their game. They settled for outside shots and didn't hit any of them. They weren't making the hustle plays. And they found themselves down 20 points with 11 minutes to play.

Then things switched, and Ohio State started looking like the favorite again. They drove, they attacked, and they started matching Wichita State's effort. Wichita dealt with a couple injuries and massive foul trouble. They tightened up just a little bit, and they allowed Ohio State to get within 4 points with about 2 mintues to play. The question at this point was, could Wichita State make just enough plays to hold off the fast charging Buckeyes.

The answer was yes. A three point shot, a falling over 5-footer in the lane, and a couple free throws were enough to make sure Ohio State couldn't get close enough to attempt a shot to tie or take the lead. In the end, the Ohio State University simply dug themselves too deep a hole before they finally found themselves offensively. If they could have stayed within 12-15 points, they would have won this game. They couldn't, so Wichita State moves on to the Final Four.

March Madness Day 7, Part 1

Syracuse 55, Marquette 39
This game can be summed up in one line: you cannot shoot 22.6% from the field and expect to win.

Syracuse is an anomaly in college basketball, in that they play a 2-3 zone defense almost exclusively. Other teams will mix in some zone as a change of pace, but almost no one else strays from man-to-man as their primary defense. That can make the quick turnaround games (second games of the two opening weekends) tough for 'Cuse opponents, because there isn't much time to study the tape.

Marquette doesn't have this excuse though, as they are a part of the Big East conference. As is Syracuse. Marquette played Syracuse already this season, beating Syracuse 74-71 back in late February. In that game, Marquette shot 42.6% from the field and attempted 35 free throws. In this game, they shot substantially worse and attempted only 16 free throws.

But again, they shot 22.6% from the field. There aren't many scenarios where that type of game doesn't end in a blowout loss.

March Madness Day 6 Recap

Yikes it's late. Good night all.

Game Commentary
Part 1
Part 2

The Leaderboard
1. Craig M - 70 pts
2. Cindy F - 66 pts*
T3. Jon J - 62 pts
T3. Josiah K - 62 pts*
T3. Barack Obama - 62 pts*
T3. Leni P - 62 pts

T-Last: Paula B - 36 pts*
T-Last: Rachel G - 36 pts*

* - Selected champion has been eliminated from the tournament

Shoutouts
To Jon J, David K, Josiah K, Craig M, Sam OC, and Barack Obama, for being a perfect 4-for-4 in their picks today.

To Craig M, for nailing 6 of his 8 Elite 8 picks, best in the pool.

To Cindy F, Jon J, Josiah K, Barack Obama, Leni P, Bryan L, David K, and Chuck M, for all getting 5/8 Elite Eight picks correct.

To Nathan G, for being the only pool member to still have all 4 of his Final Four teams alive as of yesterday. Unfortunately, with Kansas losing, this is no longer true, but since I missed this factoid in yesterday's recap, he gets his props here.

To Trey Burke, that was an incredible three-point shot to tie the Michigan-Kansas game. So far away from the basket.

To Steve Kerr, analyst in the UM-KU game, who correctly took the practice of the officials checking the clock in every instance in the final seconds to task for giving teams without time outs, a free time out to allow them to draw up a play. Yesterday I came down on the side of, you have to get the amount of time left correct. But there has to be a better way to do this that doesn't involve such ridiculously long delays. If not, I'm changing my mind, this cannot continue. It's going to decide a game at some point if this practice isn't adjusted.

To Dunk City (aka Florida Gulf Coast), for a great tournament run. Not only did they make history by making the Sweet 16 as a 15-seed, but they were entertaining as heck in doing so.

Condemnations
To the Dallas Cowboys, for giving Tony Romo a 6-year, $108 million dollar extension with a whopping $55 million dollars guaranteed. That sounds like a lot of money, right?

Most guaranteed money in NFL history: Tom Brady, $57 million; Tony Romo, $55 million; Drew Brees, $55 million: Joe Flacco, $51 million.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 29, 2013

Tony Romo doesn't belong on any list between Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Well done Jerry Jones. Even Donovan McNabb thinks Tony Romo is overpaid.

Pool Statistics

Here's how many people have each of the remaining Final Four teams:
(4) Syracuse - 3
(3) Marquette - 5
(9) Wichita State - 0
(2) Ohio State - 32
(1) Louisville - 54
(2) Duke - 15
(4) Michigan - 10
(3) Florida - 20

Tweet of the day

So this is what exciting postseason drama is like at Cowboys Stadium??
— Jason Romano (@JasonRomano) March 30, 2013

Enjoy Day 7!

March Madness Day 6, Part 2

Duke 71, Michigan State 61
Defense and three-point shooting, that's the formula Duke uses. In this game, it worked beautifully for them. Duke as a team did okay (38.9%), but Seth Curry himself shot 6-for-9 from behind the arc, which was enough damage. But the real story of this game was Duke's defense. Michigan State went almost 14 minutes in one stretch of the second half without a field goal. That's incredible. For most of the second half, Michigan State had more turnovers than field goals.

I'd love to make sarcastic ref jokes here, given that Duke won and all, but they simply outplayed Michigan State on both ends of the floor. And to top it off, they hit their free throws, so Michigan State had no chance to get back in the game down the stretch.

Florida 62, Florida Gulf-Coast 50
This is how a higher seed knocks off the story of the tournament: weather the early run, slow the game down, and force them to beat you in the half court. They can't do it consistently. Florida was terrible to start this game. They didn't tally their 8th point until over 10 minutes had elapsed in the first half! That's awful, especially considering the size advantage they had.

This game came down to two stats: Florida's offensive rebounds (13) and Florida Gulf Coast's turnovers (19). Once Florida slowed the game down, it was inevitable that they would take control of this game. They were too big defensively, which made Florida Gulf Coast's job really difficult on offense, and got too many second (and third) chances at their misses on the offensive end. It was just too much for the 15 seed to overcome.

March Madness Day 6, Part 1

Louisville 77, Oregon 69
This game should serve as a warning shot to the rest of the NCAA tournament teams. Oregon didn't play badly in this game. They started slowly (while Louisville started hot), but you cannot point to anything the Ducks did to bring this loss on themselves. They had fewer turnovers than the Cardinal (by 1, but that's a win going against Louisville's pressure defense), rebounds were even, neither team shot free throws or three-pointers well, and Oregon had 5 starters who scored 10+ points.

This game came down to two things: 1) Oregon didn't do anything especially well either (35.7% from behind the arc, 58.8% from the free throw line), and 2) Oregon couldn't handle Louisville's Russ Smith, who erupted for 31 points in this game. But back to my initial point, Oregon played pretty well, and while they were never out of this game, they never really threatened Louisville either. Louisville isn't the dominant team Kentucky was last year, but right now they look like a true #1 overall seed in this tournament.

Michigan 87, Kansas 85 (OT)
Wow. What. A. Game.

Kansas was up about double digits for most of this game right up until there were 3 minutes left in the second half. Unlike every other game in this tournament, this time Bill Self's team didn't take a full half to get going. They came out ready, and even held Michigan's Trey Burke scoreless for the entire first half.

Michigan was up 8 with 3:45 to play, then proceeded to turn the ball over on 3 of their next 4 possessions, which helped Michigan get within 6. Then Trey Burke took over for Michigan. He scored 8 of their last 10 points, culminating in a 30+ foot (seriously) three-point shot to tie the game with 4 seconds left after Kansas had missed the front end of a one-and-one. Kansas missed a decent look at a three, and we went to overtime.

In OT the teams went back and forth, trading 1-point leads until Michigan got a put-back to go up 3 with 1:02 left. Kansas immediately ran Bill Self's favorite offensive play down the stretch: the turnover. Michigan went up 5 with 2 free throws, then Kansas cut the lead to 2 points on a three-pointer with 47 seconds left.

Michigan called timeout to set up a play to ice the game. After the timeout, Bill Self sent 6 players onto the court. Luckily, he caught the mistake before the officials did, otherwise it would have been a technical foul (2 shots for Michigan AND the ball) which would have iced the game.

Kansas then forced a shot-clock violation, which should have given them the ball out of bounds with ~8 seconds left. Instead the officials called a time out to check the clock. This gave Kansas a time out that they did not have, allowing them to set up a play, something that happened in the closing seconds of the Arizona-Ohio State game last night too.

On the final play (remember, Kansas is down 2 points), the Kansas player drove towards the rim, and kicked the ball back out to a teammate that he had to corral and launch an off-balance three-point attempt, which missed. That's right, instead of a player who had beaten his man attempting a shot at the rim, he (wildly) chucked it back out for an off-balance three-point attempt. Now, I like to rag on Bill Self for not having his team prepared to play, and underachieving almost every year in the tournament, but this had to be player error.

But that doesn't absolve Self for watching his team clench up for the game's final 3-4 minutes, blowing a 10-point lead in the process. or almost blowing the game by sending 6 players onto the floor with ~20 seconds to go in overtime. Once again, Kansas fans and pool-backers everywhere got Self'd.

March Madness Day 5 Recap

Thirteen years I have run a March Madness pool, and thirteen times now I have had to write the update after my bracket has officially blown up. Not only did I submit a gutter-ball today, my carefully selected champion fell because they couldn't handle a 2-3 zone defense. Whether I write this email is never really in question (13 years and I still haven't figured out how to rig my own pool, thanks Ivy-league education), the question is when is it coming. It's happened as early as Day 3 (pretty sure this involved Bill Self...and swearing), and as late as Day 7 or 8 (might have involved Bill Self as well).

In fact, I've made it to the Final Four just once with a shot at a (theoretical) money prize. The year was 1999. I was a high-school junior, not yet exposed to many of life's finer things. Things like a steady paycheck, beer, or organizing a March Madness pool. Had Duke beaten UConn in the final that year, I would have ended in the top-3 of the pool I entered at school. They didn't. So I didn't. On the plus side, I did use this experience to nurture a very healthy hatred of Duke basketball. So, while I didn't get to bask in triumph, I at least got to keep my soul.

Game Commentary
Part 1
Part 2

The Leaderboard
1. Cindy F - 58 pts*
2. Craig M - 54 pts
T3. Jen K - 53 pts*
T3. Melissa R - 53 pts
5. Katie A - 52 pts
6. Shanna B - 51 pts*

T-Last: Paula B - 32 pts
T-Last: Rachel G - 32 pts*

* - Selected champion has been eliminated from the tournament

Shoutouts
To Cindy F, and little Miles, who paced the field tonight by picking 3/4 games correctly (no one in the pool had Wichita State winning). Bonus shoutout to Miles, for singlehandedly out-pointing the rest of the Kofrons in the pool.

To Joe M, who has the highest score of anyone who got blanked today (there were 14 of us).

To the Coke Zero ad about why we shouldn't feel bad about filling out brackets at work. Both the "someone has to end Sharon's reign of terror" and the "I picked America" lines are tremendous.

To the Chicago Bulls, for ending the Miami Heat's 27-game win streak last night.

Condemnations
To Enterprise. This is at least the 3rd year you have run the commercial about how you hire the most new college graduates each year, and how many of those new grads were student-athletes. If this is true, why are 60% of the people in the ad the same people who were in the ad last year and the year before? Don't you have enough athletic-looking new hires to inject some fresh faces in your commercials? Did you think no one would notice?

To Tom Crean, for not having his team ready for the Syracuse zone. Also, this can be an indirect one for Tom's brother-in-law, Jim Harbaugh.

To Calgary Flames GM Jay Feaster. He told the Boston Bruins they had a deal for Jarome Iginla last night. One problem, Iginla has a no-movement clause and apparently hadn't okayed the deal yet. 45 minutes later, Iginla was heading to Pittsburgh.

To Iginla, for nixing the Bruins trade and instead going to Pittsburgh to attempt to ride the coattails of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to a title.

Pool Statistics
How many participants picked each winner:
(1) Louisville - 20
(1) Indiana - 19
(1) Kansas - 6
(1) Gonzaga - 3 
(2) Miami - 6
(2) Georgetown - 6
(2) Ohio State - 6
(2) Duke - 4
(3) Florida - 5
(3) Michigan State - 1
(4) Michigan - 1
(4) St. Louis - 1

Tweet of the day

At this rate Zeller will be working at Enterprise next year... #MarchMadness #Indiana
— Eric Stangel (@EricStangel) March 29, 2013

Enjoy Day 6!

March Madness Day 5, Part 2

Syracuse 61, Indiana 50
Indiana came out not ready for Syracuse's zone. It was a mess of turnovers, missed shots, and blocked shots. Syracuse, on the other hand, shot the ball well behind their star point guard Michael Carter-Williams. Indiana settled down after 5-7 minutes of game time, but by that time they were down double digits, and they simply were never able to mount a sustained run to get back in the game. Hats off to Syracuse for a tremendous defensive effort.

Wichita State 72, La Salle 58
Wichita State was simply too big and too good defensively for La Salle. La Salle enjoyed a great run in this tournament, but in Wichita State they simply didn't have the horses to play with the Shockers. Is this game over yet?

If not for Ohio State-Arizona, this day would have been completely full of dud games. Hopefully tomorrow's match-ups are more exciting.

Oh, and Reggie Miller, umm, hasn't hit his stride as an analyst yet.

March Madness Day 5, Part 1

Marquette 71, Miami 61
Miami ran out to a (very early) 4-2 lead, and then Marquette just took over. Don't be fooled by the 10-point margin, this one was over by halftime. Marquette's defense was good, but Miami just wasn't hitting anything. Be it at the rim or behind the arc (8-for-26), Miami just could never get their offense going, shooting under 35% for the night.

And then, when Miami had to try and up the tempo in an effort to get back into the game in the second half? Marquette shredded them. They handled Miami's full court press beautifully, getting layup after layup. It's funny that Marquette should have been bounced by 14-seed Davidson in the first second round, and now they're one game away from the Final Four (hat tip to Celinda for this observation).

Ohio State 73, Arizona 70
This was a great game, very similar to the Iowa State-Ohio State game from last weekend. A game of runs, with Arizona dominating early, Ohio State almost pulling away in the second half, but the game coming down to Ohio State with the ball with ~20 seconds left in a tie game. Just like in the Iowa State game, Aaron Craft dribbled the clock down almost to zero. Unlike the Iowa State game, Arizona doubled Craft and forced him to give up the ball. He did, to LaQuinton Ross, who drilled the three-pointer with 2.1 seconds left. Arizona wasn't able to get a shot off and Ohio State moves on again in a very exciting way.

Speaking of Aaron Craft, I'm very curious as to why both of his cheeks looked like Peyton Manning' forehead after one of Manning's games (read: covered with red pressure marks). Manning at least has the excuse of wearing a helmet (I'm not sure why he wears one that's two sizes too small, but I digress), but Craft wears no headgear whatsoever. Maybe you want to get those looked at, chief.

One interesting note from this game, Arizona used their last time out with about 2 minutes to go. After Ross' three-pointer, the officials called time out to review how much time was left when the shot went in. They ended up adding a tenth of a second after the review, but in doing so gave Arizona a time out they didn't have. It didn't make a difference, but this is a difficult situation. On the one hand, they need to get the timing right with that little time left. On the other hand, it's a giant competitive advantage for one team in that situation (an extra timeout). I come down on the side of the officials should do what they need to in order to get things right, but it's a fine tightrope to walk.

CONCACAF Hexagonal, Match 3

Previous Hex Reports:
Preview
After 1 game

Recent Results:

Home	Score (H)	Score (A)	Away	Hex Game
Honduras	2	2	Mexico	2
Jamaica	1	1	Panama	2
United States	1	0	Costa Rica	2
Costa Rica	2	0	Jamaica	3
Mexico	0	0	United States	3
Panama	2	0	Honduras	3

USA vs Costa Rica
Mexico vs USA


Updated Table:

Hex	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	Pnt	Pts/15	Pts/20
Panama	3	1	2	0	2	5	3	5	13	18
Costa Rica	3	1	1	1	1	4	3	4	15	19
United States	3	1	1	1	0	2	2	4	15	19
Honduras	3	1	1	1	-1	4	5	4	13	17
Mexico	3	0	3	0	0	2	2	3	11	16
Jamaica	3	0	2	1	-2	1	3	2	13	17

For a discussion of the Pts/15 and Pts/20 columns, see the After 1 game report linked above.
Note: Panama, Honduras, and Mexico have played 2 of their 3 games at home. 

Hex Math: 
Once again, let's start with Hex history:

• Since 1998 qualifying, it has taken an average of 15.75 points to finish in the top-3 and snag an automatic berth. 
• Since 1998 qualifying, it has taken an average of 20.75 points to win the group. 
• Since 1998, qualifying teams out of the Hex have averaged at least 11.75 points at home
• Since 1998, qualifying teams have averaged at least 4 points on the road, group winners have averaged 8.25 points. 

Of the 6 teams in the Hex, exactly one cannot hit the 11.75 points at home figure. Shockingly, that team is Mexico, the most talented team in the Hex, and a team that everyone expected to breeze through qualifying. With no team losing multiple games yet, no one has fallen below even the 8 possible road points threshold for a group winner.

Three games in, the latter looks like the story. Last time, we talked about qualifiers and group winners. The flip side to the coin is, what does the bottom of the table look like? For the purposes of this exercise, I am defining the bottom of the table as 5th and 6th place. While 4th place isn't guaranteed a World Cup berth, it does qualify that team for a playoff to qualify. The bottom two teams are simply eliminated. Let's look again at the average results for each position in the Hex:

Position	Home Results, GD	Away Results, GD
1st	12.5 Pts, +9.5	8.25 Pts, +1
2nd	13.25 Pts, +9.25	5.5 Pts, -0.75
3rd	11.75 Pts, +5.75	4 Pts, -4.5
4th	9.75 Pts, +3.5	4 Pts, -4.5
5th	7.75 Pts, +2	1.5 Pts, -7
6th	3.75 Pts, -3.5	1 Pts, -10.75

The 5th place team averages less than 10 points, and the 6th place team averages under 5. Looking a little bit closer, the 5th place team averages over 5 losses in 10 games. The 6th place team averages just shy of 7. That's a loss every other game (more for  As noted above, through 3 games no team has more than 1 loss.

Put another way, the average difference between 1st place and 6th place has been 16 points, historically. That is a chasm. After 3 games in 2013, 3 points separate 1st from 6th, more like a stone's throw. Commentator after commentator has made the point that this Hex looks more competitive than ever. So far, the results bear that out. Now, this is both good and bad for a team like Mexico, who has left a considerable amount of points on the table.

• On the plus side, if the bottom of the table is more competitive, it stands to reason that the top of the table won't accumulate as many points as usual. It may not take 21 points to win the group, or 16 points to qualify. 
• On the minus side, if little separates the 6 teams, leaving points on the table is likely going to be harder to overcome. 

Next Games:

The teams now get a breather, and then will each play 3 games between June 4 and June 18. On June 19 each team will have played 6 games, and we will start to get a good sense of each team's qualification chances.