NFL Picks, Week 17

Last week wasn’t the train wreck that week 15 was, but it was still sub-.500 and enough to drop my picks for the season under .500. And with this being the final week in the NFL’s regular season, I need at least 9 correct picks to finish the abridged season above the waterline. Can I do it? Probably not, but only one way to find out: channel my inner honey badger and eat the cobra.

NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Carolina
The Saints need this and an impossible Rams win over the 49ers to get a first round bye. If this doesn’t come to pass, they will have their week 8 loss to the same Rams to blame. Despite the fact that St. Louis has no shot at winning their game, Sean Payton will keep Drew Brees in long enough to secure the yardage record at the very least (which may be the entire game), and with this game in the dome, Carolina will not keep pace.

NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) Buffalo
The Patriots need this game because the Ravens and Steelers will not both lose, which means the first seed in the AFC is at risk. The news surrounding Brady’s shoulder is concerning, but last week aside, Buffalo isn’t the same team they were back in week 3, and they will not keep pace with the New England offense.

MINNESOTA (-1.5) over Chicago
Minnesota is coming off of their first win since week 8. Chicago is coming off of their 5th straight loss since starting 7-3 and was officially eliminated from the playoffs after Sunday night. Plus, Chicago’s offense is in tatters and Minnesota does get after the quarterback well.

New York Jets (+2.5) MIAMI
I really want to pick Miami, because I think it would be hilarious watching Rex talk his way around an 8-8 season with a 2-6 road record. But as bad as the Jets D has looked I don’t see Reggie Bush doing any damage to it, and Matt Moore isn’t winning this one by himself.

San Francisco (-10.5) ST. LOUIS
I picked St. Louis last week against the Steelers because the spread was 14 points and Charlie Batch was Pittsburgh’s quarterback. In other words, I expected Pittsburgh to need to score about 20 points to cover that spread and I doubted they’d bother pushing themselves enough on offense to get there. Of course, not only did Pittsburgh score over 20, the Rams scored a big, fat zero. Once again, the Rams have no chance in this one, as the 49ers need to win to keep the 2nd seed and a bye. I’m not going to trust the Rams even if the 49ers continue settling for field goal after field goal.

Detroit (-3.5) over GREEN BAY
The Matt Flynn job audition for next season (he’s a free agent after this one) won’t be a disaster, but he won’t keep up with Detroit’s offense when his team has nothing to play for.

PHILADELPHIA (-8.5) Washington
So let me get this straight, now that Philadelphia has run off 3 straight wins (likely 4 after Sunday) to end the season (at Miami, home vs the Jets - who have been brutal on the road, at Dallas with nothing to play for, and home against Washington) the chatter about Andy Reid’s job security is gone? Really? Because the Eagles finally decided to wake up and play as soon as the pressure was off? Am I missing something here?

Indianapolis (+3.5) JACKSONVILLE
These are two terrible teams, and I actually trust Dan Orlovsky more than Blaine Gabbert right now. That’s shocking. I can’t believe I trust Dan Orlovsky more than any other QB in the league, but he looked like an actual NFL quarterback against Houston last Thursday night while he was piling dirt on my Thursday night picking grave.

HOUSTON (+3) over Tennessee
I expect Houston’s defense to be so sick of hearing how awful they’ve been recently that they come out angry and fired up and make Matt Hasselbeck’s life miserable. I also expect Houston’s postseason stay to be very short.

ARIZONA (-3) over Seattle
Arizona’s beaten significantly better teams at home already this year. With neither team having anything to play for, I think being at home swings this one to the Cardinals.

DENVER (-3) over Kansas City
The ultimate Tebow moment, a comeback in the 4th quarter in the last game of the season (coming off of a thrashing) against a division foe. How does this possibly end with the Broncos on the sidelines for the postseason?

ATLANTA (-11.5) over Tampa Bay
I don’t care if Atlanta decides to rest starters. The Buccaneers have quit.

CINCINNATI (+2) over Baltimore
If anyone can give me a reason to trust Baltimore on the road against a decent team, I’ll change this pick in a hearbeat. Their road wins: St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. Yes Pittsburgh is a good team, but the Ravens have a massive chip on their shoulder regarding Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh (-7) over CLEVELAND
Even if Roethlisberger doesn’t play. I like Seneca Wallace, but the enduring memory I have of his seasons in Seattle when he had to play quarterback are of him running out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage and taking a loss instead of throwing the ball away.

OAKLAND (-3) over San Diego
I fully expect the Chargers to give their best Norv Turner effort in what could be Turner’s final game as their head coach. So prepare to watch a game full of penalties, missed assignments, turnovers, and other sloppy play.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Dallas
I’d actually feel more comfortable taking the Giants if this game was in Dallas. But Dallas’ empty hole in the backfield behind Tony Romo will be too much of a handicap in this one.

Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 45-46-3