NFL Picks, Week 14

In lieu of a witty introduction or clever theme (even though I honey badgered my way to my best week yet), I’m instead going to use this space to comment quickly on a couple of major stories from the past couple of days:

Pujols, Wilson signs with Angels, but mostly Pujols – Shocking, in that it seemed like Pujols was all set to return to the Cardinals for too much money and too many years. You have to think that Pujols got ticked off when St. Louis didn’t get this done last year, and then with the World Series win and LaRussa retiring, it gave him a chance to make a clean break. Will Pujols be worth it 10 years from now, or even 6 years from now? No. But the Angels took on the worst contract in MLB last season (Vernon Wells), and it crippled them so much they went out and signed the best hitter and pitcher on the market.

Chris Paul traded to the Lakers – Well, this was unexpected. It’s unfortunate that the lockout happened and the first thing that happens after the season opens is an established star forces his way out of town, given that was kind of one of the things this lockout was supposed to deal with

Hornets owner rejects deal agreed to by GM, nixes trade – This is an interesting story in and of iteself, that a GM and two other teams agree to a deal, then the owner comes in and Jerry Joneses everything up. But it’s a travesty in this case because the owner of the Hornets is the NBA itself. The other 29 (well, ostensibly 27 of the other 29) owners balked at a team they all had an equal stake in (until a buyer is found) shipping off its main asset to one of the few “haves” in the NBA, so they pressured Stern to nix the deal, which he shockingly did. There was no collusion in the initial deal (but plenty of it in the vetoing of it), so there is no “best interests of the game” reason to cancel the trade. It’s like in a fantasy league, vetoes should only be used in cases of clear collusion. Just because you think it’s a bad trade, or it hurts your team’s chances, doesn’t mean it is deserving of a veto. Now the GM of the Hornets either has to take a lesser deal and ship Paul off somewhere he doesn’t want to go (and thus will leave at the end of the season), or has to watch Paul leave in free agency next year and get nothing in return. What a disaster.

On to the picks:

NEW YORK JETS (-10.5) over Kansas City
Okay. We’ve determined that Tyler Palko > Caleb Hanie. That is absolutely the only thing Tyler Palko can hang his hat on, except for maybe the fact that his coach believes (incorrectly) that Palko is better than Kyle Orton.

Tampa Bay (-2) over JACKSONVILLE
During Tampa’s recent 6-game losing streak, they have scored 17.5 points per game. In Jacksonville’s entire season of 12 games, they have scored 18 points or more exactly once (and they lost that game). Tampa’s defense isn’t very good, but they’re good enough to limit one player.

WASHINGTON (+8) over New England
This may be an overreaction to New England’s defense’s stopping playing with 10 minutes to go and allowing Dan Orlovsky to close the gap to 7 (albeit without ever really threatening the Patriots), but Grossman has done well when facing poor secondaries the past few weeks, and New England’s is the poorest of the poor. That sound you hear when Rex throws his 3rd pick as Bill Belichick shows the hint of a smile will be me kicking myself.

Atlanta (-3) over CAROLINA
Carolina’s defense isn’t good enough to fluster Matt Ryan, while the Falcons defense is good enough to limit the damage Cam Newton does.

Indianapolis (+16.5) over BALTIMORE
No I don’t think Indy threatens to steal this game, but Baltimore’s offense won’t bother themselves too much to try and win this one. They’ll be content to run Ray Rice 35 times and let the defense control things. The only way Baltimore covers this one is if the defense gives the offense a lot of short fields or even some points. I just don’t see the defense getting up emotionally for this game, so it won’t happen.

MIAMI (-3) over Philadelphia
A trying Vince Young and LeSean McCoy weren’t enough. A trying Michael Vick (albeit with hurt ribs) and LeSean McCoy? It’s possible. I’d feel better if I thought their defensive coordinator would bother to make adjustments after being embarrassed in another game. I trusted a team who has mostly quit last week (still with something to play for), I’m not doing it again this week.

DETROIT (-10) over Minnesota
You remember that play where Minnesota didn’t bother to cover a Broncos receiver running a deep route, and then he scored a touchdown? Oh, I’m sorry. You see, where I said “play” I really meant “game”. I don’t care how broken Stafford’s finger might be, you cover his receivers that poorly, and he is putting up points.

TENNESSEE (+3.5) over New Orleans
New Orleans has looked incredible the past two weeks, but that’s been at home. On the road they’ve been an entirely different animal. With Chris Johnson back, and noted Saints-killer Matthew Hasselbeck at quarterback, I think we see a bit of a letdown from the Saints, and Tennesee steals one.

CINCINNATI (-3) over Houston
You can either chalk this one up to, “The more desperate team late in the season tends to pull these games out” or, “The team that isn’t starting TJ Yates at quarterback tends to pull these games out.”

DENVER (-3.5) over Chicago
This is the quintessential Tebow game. For three quarters, don’t turn the ball over, keep things close and tight, and pound at the defense with run after run after run. Just get to the 4th quarter within a score. Then, attack. Conjure up whatever talent, magic, and/or luck you have at your disposal, and eke out a win. If Jay Cutler were playing, Denver might be in trouble, as early two-score deficits tend to snowball (see the Detroit game), but with Caleb Hanie under center?

San Francisco (-4) ARIZONA
I know Patrick Willis is out, and I know Arizona just stunned the Cowboys, but I can’t take Kevin Kolb against a legitimate defense.

SAN DIEGO (-7) Buffalo
Pure elimination game. Loser falls to 5-8, and the final playoff spot will rest with a team who is 8-5. Not that the winner will be in great shape either, but at least they’ll still have a chance. Buffalo ran off to their hot start thanks to turnovers, so this game comes down to which Philip Rivers we get: the turnover machine, or the guy who finally started taking care of the football two weeks ago? The Bills have precisely 1 win way from home this season (week 1 vs the Chiefs), so I’m going with the Rivers roller coaster this week.

GREEN BAY (-11.5) Oakland
Green Bay’s defense isn’t good on the surface, but they will attack you and try to create turnovers. If you give them turnovers, you’re done, because Aaron Rodgers is on another level right now. Carson Palmer will oblige with his share (maybe more) of turnovers.

New York Giants (+3.5) over DALLAS
The Giants and Cowboys seem to be trending in opposite directions in their last 3 games, despite the Cowboys’ superior record (2-1 vs 0-3) during that period. With Garrett securely under the microscope, I think Dallas plays this game on edge, and combine that with New York needing the game more, and I think Eli outduels Romo on Sunday night.

SEATTLE (-6.5) over St. Louis
The Rams are an absolute mess, and now Sam Bradford may not be playing? And Tom Brandstater may get the start? At Qw…err, CLink? And I’m supposed to give this a second thought? This is Tarvaris Jackson’s dream, he’s not the worst quarterback on the field!

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 25-19-2