NFL Picks, Week 15

Dallas (-7) over TAMPA BAY
Tampa has given up on the season, there’s just no other rational explanation for giving up 41 points to the Jaguars. Dallas has had their struggles, but if the Bucs never get within two scores in the 4th quarter, it will counter Dallas’ biggest weakness: blowing 4th quarter leads.

HOUSTON (-6.5) over Carolina
I'm on the TJ Yates is a poor man's Tim Tebow bandwagon.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Washington
I can't see the Giants laying an egg in this one. That means Rex Grossman will lose the will to live somewhere around the 3rd quarter, after Jason Pierre-Paul sacks him for the 3rd time.

Miami (PK) over BUFFALO
One of these teams just fired its coach. The other has lost 6 straight. And you wonder why Vegas couldn't decide who to favor.

CHICAGO (-3.5) over Seattle
One offensive play will be enough to win this one, and though Tarvaris Jackson is the better quarterback, Chicago's defense is also better, and I think the Bears make the one play they need. Unless Marion Barber decides to brainfart all over his teammates again multiple times.

New Orleans (-6.5) over MINNESOTA
The only way Minnesota covers is if their dome collapses again and force this game to be played outside. Even then it’s kind of a long shot, but the Saints were built for dome games. Which is what makes that midseason loss to the Rams so inexplicable.

Cincinnati (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS
Cincinnati is playing for their playoff lives, and St. Louis, well, it really doesn’t matter what St. Louis is playing for. Sam Bradford looked atrocious on Monday Night, and Cincy will limit the damage Steven Jackson can do. I might be somewhat worried about rookie QB Andy Dalton on the road if St. Louis weren’t down to their 10th and 11th cornerbacks.

Tennessee (-6.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
It looks like Hasselbeck is going to start this game, so Indy will march on to 0-14.

Green Bay (-13.5) over KANSAS CITY
Maybe, maybe with Todd Haley gone someone other than Tyler Palko will get a shot at running Kansas City’s offense. Because if Palko is back there, you could double this spread and I’d still take Green Bay.

Detroit (-1) over OAKLAND
Combined Penalties + Turnovers (+7) over Combined Points
Oakland remains the most penalized team in the NFL (coaches change, Al Davis dies, and still, the Raiders can't stop taking penalties). Detroit tends to meltdown in a barrage of stupid decisions when things go against them. Add in Ndamokung Suh's return from stomping a Packer, and well, the officials will be busy.

DENVER (+6.5) over New England
New England's defense will keep the Broncos in it by allowing Tim Tebow to complete more than 3 passes before the 4th quarter. People are making a big deal over how Belichick will attaclk and thwart the Tebow offense, but those people are forgetting that Belichick has no talent on his defense. He's starting 2 wide receivers in his secondary, for Tim's sake.

New York Jets (+3) over PHILADELPHIA
I'm already shocked at how few carries Andy Reid is going to give LeSean McCoy considering the Jets have so much talent in their secondary, but are vulnerable to the running game.

ARIZONA (-6.5) over Cleveland
In both cases, the starting quarterback is out with a concussion. In both cases, I'm not sure the backup is any of a downgrade. That's not because I think the backups are any great shakes.

Baltimore (-2.5) over SAN DIEGO
The San Diego coming on like gangbusters in December story is in full swing, but with Rivers being replaced by Captain Turnover this season (save the past 2 games), I just don't see how this ends well going against Baltimore's defense.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Pittsburgh
I don't believe in Charlie Batch, especially when his running game is taken away from him (like the 49ers have done to everyone this season).

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 33-27-2