AFC Playoff Picture, Week 14

AFC Playoff Picture

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Div	Conf
1	y-Houston	10	3	0	.769	4-0	8-2
2	Baltimore	10	3	0	.769	4-0	7-2
3	New England	10	3	0	.769	3-1	7-2
4	Denver	8	5	0	.615	3-2	6-3
5	Pittsburgh	10	3	0	.769	3-2	8-3
6	New York Jets	8	5	0	.615	3-2	6-5
-	Tennessee	7	6	0	.538	1-2	5-4
-	Cincinnati	7	6	0	.538	2-3	6-5
-	Oakland	7	6	0	.538	2-2	5-5
-	San Diego	6	7	0	.462	2-3	5-5

y – division champion

Remaining Schedules:
Houston: CAR, @IND, TEN
Baltimore: @SD, CLE, @CIN
New England: @DEN, MIA, BUF
Denver: NE, @BUF, KC
Pittsburgh: @SF, STL, @CLE
NY Jets: @PHI, NYG, @MIA
Tennessee: @IND, JAX, @HOU
Cincinnati: @STL, ARI, BAL
Oakland: DET, @KC, SD
San Diego: BAL, @DET, @OAK

SO the AFC divides pretty neatly into 2 tiers:
Vying for the 1st seed: Houston, Baltimore, New England, Pitsburgh.
Vying for the 4th and 6th seeds: Denver, NY Jets, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Oakland, San Diego

Baltimore is in the best position to win the tiebreakers, assuming they beat San Diego (H2H over Houston and Pittsburgh, better record in common games than New England if they beat SD). But Houston has the easiest schedule (just by a hair over the Patriots). New England needs the other teams to all lose once to have a shot at the top seed in the conference.

If Denver takes care of Buffalo and Kansas City, they should take the division as they're in position to have a better record in common games than Oakland.

As for the #6 spot: Tennessee and Cincinnati are in good position to at least get to 9-7, but a much tougher road to get to 10-6. The Jets (with 8 wins already) have Philly, the Giants, and Miami left. You have to think they'll get 1 win in those three, but getting 2 wins could be tough. We could see a 3-way tie at 9-7, which isn't good for Cincinnati, as they're the only ones likely to have 6 conference losses.