Tuesday, December 27, 2011

AFC Playoff Picture, Week 16

Note: I edited this post because I messed up the scenarios that would see Tennessee making the playoffs. See italicized text below:










































































































AFC Playoff Picture
RkTeamWLTPctDivConf
1z-New England1230.8004-19-2
2x-Baltimore1140.7335-08-3
3y-Houston1050.6674-18-3
4Denver870.5333-26-5
5x-Pittsburgh1140.7333-28-3
6Cincinnati960.6002-36-5
-Oakland870.5333-26-5
-Tennessee870.5332-36-5
-New York Jets870.5333-26-5


z – first round bye, y – division champion, x – playoff berth

Remaining Schedules:
New England: BUF
Baltimore: @CIN
Houston: TEN
Denver: KC
Pittsburgh: @CLE
Cincinnati: BAL
Oakland: SD
Tennessee: @HOU
NY Jets: @MIA

Playoff Scenarios:
Patriots - They have clinched a first-round bye. They get the #1 seed with a) a win, or b) losses by Pittsburgh AND Baltimore.
They would lose a tiebreaker to Baltimore on account of Baltimore's better strength-of-victory, and they would lose a tie-breaker to Pittsburgh because the Steelers beat them head-to-head.
Ravens - They get the #1 seed if they win AND New England loses. They get a first round bye if a) they win, or b) Pittsburgh loses. If Baltimore loses and Pittsburgh wins, Baltimore falls to the 5th seed. They win a tie-breaker with the Steelers thanks to their 2-0 record against Pittsburgh head-to-head.
Texans - They are locked in to the 3rd seed, thanks to their head-to-head loss to Baltimore.
Broncos - They win the West with a) a win, or b) an Oakland loss. They would win a tiebreaker with Oakland thanks to a better record versus common opponents.
Steelers - The Steelers can obtain the #1 seed with a win AND losses by New England and Baltimore. They can obtain a first-round bye with a win AND a Baltimore loss. Any other combination sticks them with the 5th seed.
Bengals - They clinch a wild card spot with a) a win, or b) losses by the New York Jets, and either Oakland OR Denver.
Raiders - They win the West with a win AND a Denver loss. They clinch a wild card berth with a win AND a Denver win AND a Cincinnati loss AND and a Tennessee loss.
Titans - They clinch a wild card berth with a win AND a Cincinnati loss AND a Jets win OR both a Raiders win AND a Broncos win. Essentially, the Titans need the Bengals to lose AND some other team to also finish 9-7 so there is a 3-way tie. If the tie is only between Cincinnati and Tennessee, the Bengals advance due to their head-to-head win. If there are 3 teams, Cincinnati is eliminated first due to their worse conference record than the other two teams, and Tennessee has tiebreakers over anyone else that could also finish 9-7.
Jets - They clinch a wild card berth with a win AND a Cincinnati loss AND a Tennesee loss AND a loss by either Denver OR Oakland.

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