NFL Picks, Week 13

One of the internet memes du jour is that of the honey badger. The sensation was born from a 2011 Youtube video entitled "The Crazy Nasty*** Honey Badger", and it centered around how the honey badger "don't care" as it fights jackals, bees, whatever to get what it wants, while a ridiculous voice named Randall narrates. It crossed over into the sports world thanks to LSU cornerback/punt returner Tyrann Mathieu, whose nickname is honey badger.

What does this have to do with the picks this week? Well, a big danger when picking NFL games is to not put too much importance on what you just saw. The NFL is such a week-to-week league, you have to be careful not to put too much weight on what happened last week when you look at the current week's slate. Just because something took you by surprise one week, doesn't make it a trend, and you shouldn't let that one week outweigh what you've learned about a team over the course of the whole season. Sometimes you need to adopt the "don't care" attitude and let last week wash away before you're ready to make your picks.

I didn't do this for my Thursday pick (Philly over Seattle), and it cost me. I let my consternation at Seattle blowing a 2-score 4th quarter lead at home to the Redskins in week 12 cloud my judgement, and I overlooked things like Philly had quit, they were making a cross country flight on 3 days, and Andy Reid is the ultimate honey badger. Andy don't care what the matchup dictates, or who his QB is, he's going to throw it 70% of the time and that's it.

Carolina (+3) over TAMPA BAY
Why this isn't a good idea: Carolina hasn't beaten anyone other than Indy in a month.
Why Honey Badger don't care: Josh Freeman is hurt. Tampa runs so hot and cold game-to-game there's no telling which team will show up, but with Josh Johnson at the helm, it's not going to be their best.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5) over Cincinnati
Why this isn't a good idea: You mean the Pittsburgh that scored 13 points against Kansas City last week? That Pittsburgh?
Why Honey Badger don't care: The Steelers knew they simply had to not hand Kansas City the game and they'd win, so why press things? It makes for ugly football, but it got them the win. They've played Cincy already and they know Andy Dalton isn't going to get rattled just from walking into Heinz Field (like Tyler Palko would). They'll be ready with something much closer to their A game. Pittsburgh has lost to Baltimore and Houston so far this season. That's it. They take care of business when they should win.

Atlanta (-2.5) over HOUSTON
Why this isn't a good idea: Houston hasn't lost in a month and a half.
Why Honey Badger don't care: Really? TJ Yates: Houston Quarterback isn't enough? I'm sure the Falcons defense won't get turnovers (like every other game), but they will hold down TJ Yates enough to win.

New York Jets (-3) over WASHINGTON
Why this isn't a good idea: The Redskins have looked surprisingly frisky these last 2 weeks since going back to Rex Grossman. And Mark Sanchez has looked awful for 3 weeks.
Why Honey Badger don't care: The Rex Cannon against the Jets secondary. He has 3 picks in those last 2 games against Dallas and Seattle.

NEW ENGLAND (-20.5) over Indianapolis
Why this isn't a good idea: It's a 20.5 point spread.
Why Honey Badger don't care: Here is Bill Belichick's chance to stick it to the Polians, who forced the illegal contact rule through after the Pats humiliated their receivers in 2003. They kept Belichick from a Super Bowl win in 2006 (what, the Bears would have beaten them? No.) And they're the franchise the Pats are compared to above all else. When Brady went down, Belichick led his team to an 11-5 season. When Manning went down? Carnage. And you think Belichick won't go for the throat here? He drinks your milkshake Jim Caldwell, he drinks it up!

MIAMI (-3) over Oakland
Why this is a bad idea: Oakland's 7-4 and coming off of a win over the Bears, Miami's 3-8.
Why Honey Badger don't care: Miami's last 6 games: 3 wins by 66 points, 3 losses by 7 points. That's total. Oakland needed 6 field goals to beat the Caleb Hanie-led Chicago Bears.

Denver (+1.5) over MINNESOTA
Why this is a bad idea: Christian Ponder is quietly looking pretty good for the Vikings.
Why Honey Badger don't care: TEBOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tennessee (+2) over BUFFALO
Why this is a bad idea: Buffalo looked legitimately frisky against the Jets D last week, they seem to have come out of their funk. Tennesee has gotten 1 game all year from CJ870.
Why Honey Badger don't care: Tennessee is limited, but more consistent than Buffalo. Also, Buffalo's D relies on turnovers to be decent. If Hasselbeck takes care of the ball and Chris Johnson gives them anything, Buffalo will struggle to get stops.

CHICAGO (-7) over Kansas City
Why this is a bad idea: To quote my wife last week, "Caleb Hanie doesn't look like a Chicago Bear, he looks like a San Diego Charger." That's not a compliment.
Why Honey Badger don't care: They're starting Tyler Palko against the Chicago defense. They're starting TYLER PALKO against the CHICAGO DEFENSE!!!!

Baltimore (-6.5) over CLEVELAND
Why this is a bad idea: Every time Baltimore has won a big, emotional game this season, they've had a terrible letdown loss the next week. Beat Pittsburgh, lose to Tennessee. Beat Houston, lose to Jacksonville. Beat Pittsburgh again, lose to Seattle. Last week they won the Harbaugh bowl.
Why Honey Badger don't care: Baltimore knows the stakes. They drop a winnable game in these last 5 weeks, Pittsburgh will steal the division. I'd make a joke about Colt McCoy here, but Blaine Gabbert's already beaten the Ravens this season.

Dallas (-4.5) over ARIZONA
Why this is a bad idea: Dallas doesn't win in Arizona, plus they're coming off of a 1 point win over Miami at home.
Why Honey Badger don't care: Beanie Wells isn't running for 200+ yards again, and Patrick Peterson isn't going to take one to the house this week. So how does John Skelton or Kevin Kolb provide enough offense for Arizona to win as D'Marco Murray runs the ball down their throat?

Green Bay (-6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Why this is a bad idea: The Giants have mastered the "Just when you think they're out of it, they'll rip off an amazing win." Unfortunately, they've also mastered, "Just when you think they have it made, they'll lose a horrible game". No one's giving them a chance against Green Bay, so danger ahead!
Why Honey Badger don't care: It would be one thing if the New Orleans debacle was one game, but it's a 3-game losing streak, and the Giants have given no indication they can hang with a prolific offense, so hanging with Green Bay is out of the question.

SAN FRANCISCO (-13.5) over St. Louis
Why this is a bad idea: I can't give you a reason.
Why Honey Badger don't care: *Snort*

NEW ORLEANS (-9) over Detroit
Why this is a bad idea: Detroit has the offense to stay with New Orleans, so they could certainly make a game of this. And where Detroit's defense is most vulnerable (gashing runs up the middle), New Orleans isn't well equipped to beat them with it.
Why Honey Badger don't care: Suh is out and Stafford looks shaky with the broken finger. Brees in a breeze.

San Diego (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
Why this is a bad idea: The Philly rationale (if a team has given up, it doesn't matter how much talent they have), Norv Turner is involved.
Why Honey Badger don't care: How is Jacksonville going to score points?

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 15-13-2