2013 NFL Preview: Part 1 - Power Poll

Much like last year, I am resurfacing for the start of the NFL regular season.  Just like last year, I am previewing said season with a power poll and predicted results all the way through the Super Bowl.

Tier 6: The choice: Do we want Clowney or Bridgewater.

32. Oakland Raiders – This team is carrying over $39 Million in dead money on their $124 Million cap this year, that’s over 30% of the salary cap going to players to not suit up for Oakland this year. That’s not a recipe for success. As a respected movie character* once said, “It’s always darkest before the dawn.” Oakland is doing the right thing by clearing the dead weight off of its roster, it’s just that the roster was in such bad shape by the end of the Al Davis years that this 2-year black hole period is necessary just to get them out of cap jail. Come 2014, the Raiders will have more salary cap room than anyone else, and (it says here), the top pick in the 2014 draft. Things will turn around for the Raiders, but this year will be ugly.

As an aside, you have to feel for Matt Flynn. Two years ago he ended the season throwing for 6 touchdowns against the Lions. He then walked into a free agent year where teams eyed him from a distance but refused to back up the Brinks trucks to his door. Seattle finally signed him to a decent deal ($8-10 million in guarantees), then drafted a too-short rookie in the 3^rd round because the GM really really liked him. Then that rookie beat out Flynn, tied Peyton Manning’s rookie record for touchdown passes and led the team within 15 seconds of the NFC championship game. This off-season, Seattle trades Flynn to Oakland, who has just jettisoned Carson Palmer, so even if the team stinks Flynn should finally get his starting shot. Nope. Instead the Raiders are apparently set to roll with Terrelle Pryor (despite Flynn’s $6.5 million in guarantees), who is still very much a work in progress.

* and the fact that this character was later scarred by acid, driven mad, and went on a murderous rampage seems to make this quote fit even better for this team, no?

31. New York Jets – Much like the Raiders, this was a team that went all-in, fell a bit short, then panicked when the old team started breaking down all at once. Unlike the Raiders, the panic lasted a couple of years, not a decade before someone was brought in to fix things up. Also unlike the Raiders, this is only year 1 of the attempted fix, not year 2. That means the arrow is still pointing the wrong way for the Jets. The roster is seriously lacking talent, which means you need a terrific quarterback. The Jets have Geno Smith Mark Sanchez Greg McElroy Geno Smith Matt Simms Brady Quinn Geno Smith.

Tier 5: The Never-Weres

30. Jacksonville Jaguars – Much like the two previous teams, a new regime is in town to clean out all the mistakes made by the old regime. Just like the two previous teams, there isn’t a clear solution at quarterback, just a Blaine Gabbert. Unlike the Raiders and Jets, there is some actual talent (namely, Maurice Jones-Drew), but the giant question mark at quarterback will keep this team much closer to the top pick than the playoffs.

29. San Diego Chargers – The most common question around the Chargers these last few years has been, what has happened to Philip Rivers? Four or five years ago, would you rather have Rivers or Eli Manning was a serious question, now it’s a joke. So what has happened to Rivers? His supporting cast disappeared. His running back used to be the best one in the league, now he has Ryan Mathews, who’s made of glass. His receivers used to include names like Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates in his prime. Now he has Vincent Brown, Eddie Royal, and Antonio Gates well past his prime. Oh, and his offensive line dropped from very good to pretty bad. Other than that, and the 15 extra interceptions, he’s the same guy.

28. Buffalo Bills – This might be a slight over-reaction to being duped by the new-look Bills last year, but I don’t believe in their defense. I don’t believe in their receivers outside of Stevie Johnson. And I don’t believe in their rookie quarterback. I do like CJ Spiller, if it helps. It doesn't? Oh well. 

27. Detroit Lions – A team that will continue to be less than the sum of its parts. Calvin Johnson. Reggie Bush. Ndamukong Suh. Jason Jones. Nick Fairley. Matt Stafford. There is considerable talent on this team. But in a division with Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler, and in a conference so deep at quarterback, you cannot go into a season with Swiss cheese in the secondary and expect not to stink.

26. Arizona Cardinals – After Kevin Kolb went down 4 games into the season, here’s what Arizona trotted out at the quarterback position: John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer. That’s abysmal. This year they upgraded (considerably) to Carson Palmer. Unfortunately, their offensive line hasn’t upgraded much at all. Which means they still won’t be able to run, and that Carson Palmer is unlikely to play in all 16 games. Oh, and they play in perhaps the toughest division in football.

25. Philadelphia Eagles – They will be interesting to watch. I am very curious to see what Chip Kelly’s offense looks like with Michael Vick. And then what Chip Kelly’s offense looks like with Nick Foles at quarterback after Vick gets hurt. But as interesting as the offense will be, the defense will be terrible.

24. Tennessee Titans – They made substantial investments in their offensive line. That should pay dividends for Chris Johnson fantasy owners this season. But they still have the inaccurate Jake Locker at quarterback. The 2013 NFL is a passing league. You can be a running team, but without a real quarterback, your ceiling is pretty low. Tennessee doesn’t have a great quarterback, and they don’t have a deep and strong enough team to win with Locker being a caretaker.

Tier 4: The Also-Rans

23.  Carolina Panthers – The issue here is that the pieces don’t fit together. Cam Newton is a very talented player, but his ability to lead is still in question. The defense is improving, but it very young. The running backs are old and declining, if not already injured. The receivers may as well not exist after Steve Smith. Ideally, this would be a team on the rise as Cam Newton matures into a true leader. But while some parts of the team are taking steps forward, others are regressing. In the stacked NFC, that’s not enough to truly contend for a playoff spot.

22. Minnesota Vikings – Call this the Christian Ponder effect. Ponder is the classic game manager quarterback. Those quarterbacks can win (see Dilfer, Trent or Johnson, Brad) but they need a very solid team around them. Last year the Vikings had Adrian Peterson and just over half a season of Percy Harvin. This offseason they traded away Percy Harvin and replaced him with a rookie and the declining Greg Jennings. Ponder is not a quarterback who will make those pieces look better, he needs them to make plays. I considered ranking them even lower, but Adrian Peterson alone will keep them from going fully in the tank.

21. Miami Dolphins – I don’t buy into the Mike Wallace acquisition at all. His game worked beautifully with Ben Roethlisberger as his quarterback, Ben would extend the plays, and Wallace’s speed would eventually get him open for deep shots. As part of a full WR corps, that’s lethal. As the #1 guy with little else? Not so much. Can Ryan Tannehill buy time like Roethlisberger? I’m skeptical. Can Tannehill do it with a new running back, without his left tackle, and without two of his receiving safety blankets from last season? I’m going with, no.

20. Cleveland Browns – Yes they still have Brandon Weeden at quarterback and yes, this franchise is probably cursed. But as down as I am about Norv Turner as a head coach (it's Mariana Trench level), the guy is a tremendous offensive coordinator. And this defense has plenty of good pieces on it. If they were in the AFC East or West, I’d have them right on the edge of playoff contention (except for the whole cursed thing). But they’re still a step below the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals, so their upside for the 2013 season remains limited. On the plus side, I think we can retire the “sorry, Cleveland” moniker from last year.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – This is a team that seems poised to make a leap. They addressed their gaping hole of a weakness from 2012 (their secondary)  with a total makeover (including Darrelle Revis). They have a great offensive foundation in Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, and Mike Williams. And they’ve upgraded their offensive line (mostly by getting guys healthy). So why are they just barely cracking the top-20? Quarterback. I’m not sold on Josh Freeman, but more importantly, the Bucs aren’t sold on Josh Freeman. They drafted Mike Glennon in the mid rounds, and made no move to extend Freeman despite this being his contract year. Add in the 2 better teams in their division they’re still looking up at and it doesn't equal playoffs.

18. St. Louis Rams – It’s Sam Bradford’s put up or shut up year. I predict a quiet Sam Bradford come the end of the season. His whole career he’s been lacking much in the way of receiving weapons, but now he has no more excuses. Is he the guy who was drafted #1 overall and convinced the Rams to pass on RG3? Or is he the checkdown artist who will play well enough for the Rams to flirt with .500? Unfortunately for the Rams, even if Bradford does step up his game, this team is still playing for 3^rd in that division.

Tier 3: On the Fringes

17. Kansas City Chiefs – There is too much talent on this team to be a real 2-14 squad. With a good coach and something at the quarterback position, this team should be right around .500. Add in the easy division, and the Chiefs could be in playoff contention. But the upside is limited. Alex Smith did well with San Francisco as part of a deep and talented team. In order for Kansas City to reach the playoffs, Smith will have to lead them there with his play. Eight years into his career, if Smith had that in him, we’d have seen evidence by now.

16. Dallas Cowboys – Just like last year, this is a team with talent, but no depth. When the injuries happen (and they will), the players pressed into service will cost this team some games. In the end, those losses will be enough to keep Dallas just out of the playoffs.

15. Indianapolis Colts – This team went 11-5 last year. They have Andrew Luck going into his second year, and they’ve added considerably more talent to what they had last season. But last year was a mirage. This team had a negative point differential, which usually translates to a losing record. The Colts avoided that with a crazy-good (read: unsustainable) record in close games. This year some of that Luck (did you catch that?) will go against the Colts, and even though they may be a better team than the 2012 edition, the record will not reflect it.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers – This is a team trying to inject some youth into itself before the entire foundation breaks down with age. They are trying to reload instead of rebuild. Whether or not they succeed will come down to how well they can protect their quarterback. If Roethlisberger plays 14+ games, they will be in playoff contention. Less than that and the whole structure could come tumbling down.

13. Washington Redskins – Everyone is saying the right things about protecting RG3 more. Shanahan is saying it. RG3 himself is saying it. But what made Washington dangerous was their commitment to the read-option offense and the threat of Griffin taking off. That’s not to say Griffin isn’t a great passer, he is. But Alfred Morris and the play action passing game are all derived from the threat of Griffin’s legs. When the offense dips initially, there’s going to be a dilemma in the nation’s capital? Can they win like that (leaning more on their defense), or do we open things up again for RG3 and get him injured again? 

Tier 2: Playoff Calliber

12. New York Giants – There is only one sure thing with the Giants. Just when you think you have a handle on them, on what to expect, they will flip the switch and give you exactly the opposite. In the years after their Super Bowl wins, they flamed out in their first playoff game and missed the playoffs. In 2011, they made the playoffs on the last day with a negative point differential, and then stormed all the way to the title. They will lose games they have no business losing. Then, just when you count them out, they’ll knock off a top contender. People are sleeping on this team with the Redskins being the new team of the hour, the Eagles landing Chip Kelly, and the Cowboys being the Cowboys. You know the Giants will be in contention for the division. It says here that this year they’ll do enough to take it.

11. Chicago Bears – The defense won’t come up with as many turnovers as last year (Charles Tillman forced 10 fumbles himself), or score as many touchdowns (9). But the offense should take a step forward with an offensive coach (Marc Trestman) replacing Lovie Smith. Surely Trestman can convince Jay Cutler to throw to people other than Brandon Marshall. Right? Right??? Why aren't you saying anything? Hello? Anyone? 

10. New Orleans Saints – This team should be back with a vengeance after bounty-gate helped ruin their 2012 season. With Sean Payton back, the offense should take a step forward from last year. And if the defense can improve at all from last year’s historically bad (maybe to just really really bad?), that should be enough for Drew Brees to lead them back to the playoffs.

9. Baltimore Ravens – Yes, the defense lost Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and 5 other starters. But the open secret is, this year’s defense should be better. Leadership is nice, but youth and athleticism are better. The bigger problem, and what will ultimately undo Baltimore’s title defense, are the losses on offense. Joe Flacco lost his best postseason receiver (Anquan Boldin) and perhaps his favorite receiver (tight end Dennis Pitta).

8. Cincinnati Bengals – I’m not completely sold on Andy Dalton. I think he is what he is, and that no leap forward is coming. So why do I have the Bengals ranked so high? This team is deep enough that Dalton doesn’t have to take a leap forward. Their defense should be stout, and AJ Green covers up for quite a lot of quarterback sins. If rookie Giovanni Bernard can add some sizzle to the running game and anyone can emerge as a #2 receiver, Cincinnati will take this division.

Tier 1: The Contenders

7. Houston Texans – JJ Watt is a one-man wrecking crew on defense. The running game is consistently good, and should even be able to survive Arian Foster missing a few games (if it comes to that). Andre Johnson is terrific, and there might even be some other pass-catching options this season. This is a talented and deep team, the playoffs should be a given. The question is can they contend for a title, and only Matt Schaub can answer it. I haven’t seen enough from Schaub to say he can go toe-to-toe with a Tom Brady or a Peyton Manning in January and come out with a win. And if Houston wants to make (and win) a Super Bowl, that’s what needs to happen. Not every playoff opponent can be the Bengals. 

6. New England Patriots – At some point Brady has to regress. That time might as well come after an off-season where one of his favorite targets lefted like a jilted girlfriend, another endured about 47 surgeries, another was unceremoniously cut, and oh yeah, one was arrested and indicted for murder. At some point, Brady’s not going to be able to take the team on his shoulders and carry them to 13 wins. I think Belichick agrees, and that’s why he’s actually most of his picks these last 2 seasons and tried to re-stock the defense. While the NFL remains a passing league, there needs to be some level of balance if you want to hoist the Lombardi trophy. And while the Patriots have improved their defense from its nadir in 2010-2011, the balance isn’t there yet. And with an entirely new stable of receivers (until Gronk returns), the offense has to slip a little bit.

5. Atlanta Falcons – The offense looks incredible. The addition of Stephen Jackson should add a consistent running game that wasn’t there last year. But the defense is a giant question mark (if we’re being kind). The same defense that blew 20-point leads twice in the playoffs doesn't look much different going into 2013. The offense will again be enough to get Atlanta close, but the defense will again let them down come playoff time.

4. Green Bay Packers – As long as you have the best quarterback in the league, you have a chance. Rodgers is making sweet music in this offense, and as long as his offensive line doesn't get him killed, that should continue. The defense should be improved from last year, thanks to a combination of better health and reinforcements. Really, Green Bay has just one problem: they match up terribly with 2 of the 3 teams above them in this poll. And barring a big surprise, the road to the Super Bowl will go through a least one (if not both) of those teams.

3. Denver Broncos – Just like Atlanta and Green Bay, the offense looks pretty close to unstoppable. And if the Broncos can make things work on defense for 6 weeks until Von Miller gets back, their defense should be better than their Falcons and Packers counterparts come playoff time. Add in a significantly easier conference path to New York in February, and Denver’s prospects look just a bit brighter than Green Bay’s or Atlanta’s.

Great running game. Terrific quarterback. Outstanding defense. These accolades apply to both of these next 2 teams. One of them will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. And I believe it will come down to who has home field advantage when they play each other.

2. San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers have the best offensive line in football, and they are a tremendously balanced team. Their Achilles heel during the season will be their receivers. Because with Michael Crabtree out, there’s no one to really scare you as a receiving threat. That, plus their lesser depth, convinces me that the 49ers will slip just enough to give up the division crown. And when they do, that crown will go to…

1. Seattle Seahawks – …the team with the best home field advantage in the NFL. Another team with great balance. Their Achilles heel will be their pass rush until they get Chris Clemons healthy and Bruce Irvin back from a 4-game suspension. But Seattle had a mediocre (at best) pass rush last year and still were the #1 scoring defense in football. This year, they will put it all together. This year, they stay home at least until the NFC Championship game. And that is a recipe for success.