New York Jets (+13) over New England
I forgot about the Jets defense, it's still legitimately good. Rex Ryan, for all of his (considerable) faults as a head coach, he can coach up a defense. Now add in all the weapons Brady will be missing: Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, Danny Amendola. Brady is down to Edelman and rookies he doesn't trust. And when Brady doesn't trust people around him, he tends to zero in on the ones he does trust. When that's Gronk, or Wes Welker, it can work. When that's Julain Edelman? I'm skeptical.
Is all of this enough for the Jets to pull the upset? No, not on a short week. But enough to stay within two touchdowns? Yes.
Last Thursday: 0-1
Midweek record: 0-1
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