Just like last year, let's start out by looking at our playoff history year-to-year:
|
Year
|
League
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
|
2002
|
AFC
|
Raiders
|
Titans
|
Steelers
|
Jets
|
Colts
|
Browns
|
|
NFC
|
Eagles
|
Buccaneers
|
Packers
|
49ers
|
Giants
|
Falcons
|
|
|
2003
|
AFC
|
Patriots
|
Chiefs
|
Colts
|
Ravens
|
Titans
|
Broncos
|
|
NFC
|
Eagles
|
Rams
|
Panthers
|
Packers
|
Seahawks
|
Cowboys
|
|
|
2004
|
AFC
|
Steelers
|
Patriots
|
Colts
|
Chargers
|
Jets
|
Broncos
|
|
NFC
|
Eagles
|
Falcons
|
Packers
|
Seahawks
|
Rams
|
Vikings
|
|
|
2005
|
AFC
|
Colts
|
Broncos
|
Bengals
|
Patriots
|
Jaguars
|
Steelers
|
|
NFC
|
Seahawks
|
Bears
|
Buccaneers
|
Giants
|
Panthers
|
Redskins
|
|
|
2006
|
AFC
|
Chargers
|
Ravens
|
Colts
|
Patriots
|
Jets
|
Chiefs
|
|
NFC
|
Bears
|
Saints
|
Eagles
|
Seahawks
|
Cowboys
|
Giants
|
|
|
2007
|
AFC
|
Patriots
|
Colts
|
Chargers
|
Steelers
|
Jaguars
|
Titans
|
|
NFC
|
Cowboys
|
Packers
|
Seahawks
|
Buccaneers
|
Giants
|
Redskins
|
|
|
2008
|
AFC
|
Titans
|
Steelers
|
Dolphins
|
Chargers
|
Colts
|
Ravens
|
|
NFC
|
Giants
|
Panthers
|
Vikings
|
Cardinals
|
Falcons
|
Eagles
|
|
|
2009
|
AFC
|
Colts
|
Chargers
|
Patriots
|
Bengals
|
Jets
|
Ravens
|
|
NFC
|
Saints
|
Vikings
|
Cowboys
|
Cardinals
|
Packers
|
Eagles
|
|
|
2010
|
AFC
|
Patriots
|
Steelers
|
Colts
|
Chiefs
|
Ravens
|
Jets
|
|
NFC
|
Falcons
|
Bears
|
Eagles
|
Seahawks
|
Saints
|
Packers
|
|
|
2011
|
AFC
|
Patriots
|
Ravens
|
Texans
|
Broncos
|
Steelers
|
Bengals
|
|
NFC
|
Packers
|
49ers
|
Saints
|
Giants
|
Falcons
|
Lions
|
|
|
2012
|
AFC
|
Broncos
|
Patriots
|
Texans
|
Ravens
|
Colts
|
Bengals
|
|
NFC
|
Falcons
|
49ers
|
Packers
|
Redskins
|
Seahawks
|
Vikings
|
I said last year that since 2002, never had fewer than 5 new teams made the postseason each year. If I said that again I'd be a liar, as last year only 4 new teams crashed the party. Well this year I'm doubling down against the 5-teams rule. This year only 3 of the 12 teams from last year's playoffs will fail to return.
So, how will it all shake out? Here's what I came up with.
|
AFC
|
NFC
|
||||||
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
New England Patriots (2)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
New York Giants (4)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
|
Miami Dolphins
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
Washington Redskins
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
|
Buffalo Bills
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
|
New York Jets
|
2
|
14
|
0
|
Philadelphia Eagles
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
Cincinnati Bengals (4)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
Green Bay Packers (1)
|
12
|
4
|
0
|
|
Baltimore Ravens (5)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
Chicago Bears
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
|
Pittsbugh Steelers (6)
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
7
|
9
|
0
|
|
Cleveland Browns
|
7
|
9
|
0
|
Detroit Lions
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
Houston Texans (3)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
Atlanta Falcons (3)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
New Orleans Saints (6)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
|
Tennessee Titans
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
4
|
12
|
0
|
Carolina Panthers
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
|
Denver Broncos (1)
|
13
|
3
|
0
|
Seattle Seahawks (2)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
San Francisco 49ers (5)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
|
San Diego Chargers
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
St. Louis Rams
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
Oakland Raiders
|
2
|
14
|
0
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
4
|
12
|
0
|
Giving us a playoff picture of
|
2013 Predicted
|
AFC
|
Broncos
|
Patriots
|
Texans
|
Bengals
|
Ravens
|
Steelers
|
|
NFC
|
Packers
|
Seahawks
|
Falcons
|
Giants
|
49ers
|
Saints
|
First, let's take a look at the 3 teams that won't be returning to the postseason in January:
- Indianapolis Colts – The way they won 11 games last year (so many close wins versus almost no close losses) simply doesn't seem sustainable. I believe in Andrew Luck, I just believe the breaks won't go Indy's way as often this year.
- Washington Redskins – This is less a referendum on Griffin (though I believe his stats will be worse this year, either due to caution or injury) than their defense. I think they achieved their late-season hot streak with smoke and mirrors, and I don't see it working again well enough to take the division.
- Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder will need to up his game to return the Vikings to the postseason. Spoiler alert: he won't.
- Pittsburgh Steelers – I'm very shaky on this pick. Either Pittsburgh will rally and find their way back into the playoffs again on the back of a resurgent defense and a healthy Roethlisberger, or things will completely fall apart and they'll finish behind Cleveland. I'm betting on the former, but I don't feel great about it.
- New York Giants – My pick in the Redskins to miss the postseason is as much faith in the Giants to pull themselves together to get into the postseason as it is a belief that the Redskins will regress.
- New Orleans Saints – There will be no problem with focus and motivation with this team. Add in a lethal offense and that should get them back into the postseason.
WILD CARD ROUND
| |
AFC (3v6)
|
Texans over Steelers
|
AFC (4v5)
|
Ravens over Bengals
|
NFC (3v6)
|
Falcons over Saints
|
NFC (4v5)
|
49ers over Giants
|
DIVISIONAL ROUND
| |
AFC (1v5)
|
Broncos over Ravens
|
AFC (2V3)
|
Patriots over Texans
|
NFC (1V5)
|
49ers over Packers
|
NFC (2V3)
|
Seahawks over Falcons
|
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND
| |
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
|
Broncos over Patriots
|
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
|
Seahawks over 49ers
|
SUPER BOWL
| |
SB XLVII
|
Seahawks over Broncos
|
I can't believe I did that. I picked my favorite team to win the Super Bowl. I'd like to chalk this up to maturity, as in I'm no longer so superstitious that I would refuse to pick my team to win a game, let alone a Super Bowl. Fortunately, when my predicition goes the way of practically all of my other NFL predictions, I'm sure this "maturity" will vanish into thin air.
Will it end up this way? Almost certianly not. But that's the beauty of the NFL, something unexpected is going to happen, and it's going to be fun to watch. And whatever does happen, football is back for another season. Enjoy!
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