Thursday, January 3, 2013

NFL Power Poll, Week 17


This is the final power poll for the NFL's regular season. It merely looks at where each team is after week 17. A playoff power poll will be coming later which will focus on one thing only, ability to win the Super Bowl.

In the quarterly ranks column,
Rank (Last)
Team
Record
Quarterly Ranks
Notes
1 (1)
12-4
3rd                 6th                7th               2nd
Yes, Denver has home field and "won" the AFC regular season, but New England's two blemishes during Denver's 11-game winning streak? A one-point loss on the road to the Seahawks and the wacky game at home against the 49ers. In other words, against better teams than anyone Denver faced during their streak.
2 (3)
13-3
5th                 11th               8th                 4th
If you believe in momentum, no one is entering the playoffs with more of it than the Broncos. If you don't believe in momentum, only one other team is in as prime position entering these playoffs as the Broncos (the Falcons). 
3 (2)
11-5
1st                  10th                6th                            6th
That Vikings game was Green Bay's chance to a) get a first round bye, but also b) their chance to announce their claim to the mantle of "most dangerous team in the NFC". They're still a force to be reckoned with, but instead of their being a top dog and challengers, there are about 4 top dogs ready to fight it out.
4 (4)
11-5
9th                 15th                10th                   8th
The Rams did what the Rams do this season (make life miserable for their NFC West pals), but getting a shot to their system was probably good for the Seahawks going into the playoffs. The playoffs aren't ususally conducive to fiftyburgers…or even fortyburgers, so getting some serious adversity and overcoming it will prepare them better than another blowout would have. 
5 (5)
11-4-1
6th                4th                4th                 3rd
San Francisco's ability to strike fear into their playoff opponents will rely mostly on Justin Smith's health. If he can come back close to 100%, they look like the favorites. If he can't, their season probably tops out short of New Orleans. 
6 (6)
13-3
8th                 2nd                1st                 5th
For all the flack Denver gets for its strength of schedule during its 11-game winning streak, Atlanta's season-long strength of schedule was worse than Denver's and they beat the same amount of playoff teams (2). The difference between the two teams? Denver lost to the 3 best teams it faced (ATL, HOU, NE) and Atlanta lost to 3 7-9 teams in its own division.
7 (8)
10-6
26th               19th                18th                   12th
The story on the surface is how RG3 led this team to the playoffs. The story beneath the surface is how the defense has improved to the point where they can get stops when needed. The story a mile down from the surface is that Washington has played some pretty mediocre offenses during their defense's rebirth. 
8 (9)
10-6
30th                 13th                12th                 16th
Right now the Vikings run to a playoff berth doesn't make a whole lot of sense. 60 years later when we learn that Adrian Peterson was the beta test for a real-life Wolverine program, it will make much more sense. 
9 (7)
12-4
2nd                 1st                2nd                1st
The anti-Denver. If you believe in momentum, you hate the Texans right now. If you're not a fantasy football player, you're worried about Arian Foster. His 17 touchdowns were nice, but he only cracked 4.0 yards per carry in 7/16 games, and had more than 20 receiving yards in just 3 games this season. Houston was built up as a contender because of their balance, but looking closer, they may be more reliant on Matt Schaub than we thought. And it's not like Schaub has inspired much confidence lately. 
10 (11)
11-5
27th                 26th                14th                 10th
Indy faced the 3rd-easiest schedule this season, behind only Atlanta and Cincinnati. Yes, they have Andrew Luck and yes, they engineered a 9-game win improvement, but there are no Jacksonvilles or Tennessees in the postseason.
11 (10)
10-6
11th                3rd                9th                   14th
At one point they were 9-2. And they get Ray Lewis back after finding out this is his last season. For a team that's so dependent on emotion, that will be worth a little bump. But what happens when the emotion wears off, and there's still 2 games left just to reach the Super Bowl?
12 (12)
10-6
14th                 14th              25th                   15th
It's hard to get a read on the Bengals. Their defense has become great against the pass, thanks to their pressure, but their offense hasn't been very good down the stretch. Since it's basically "throw it up to AJ Green", it doesn't seem like a model for sustained success.
13 (13)
10-6
4th                  7th                 5th                         9th
Black Monday strikes. GM Phil Emery took the unusual step of explaining why the Bears didn't do more to address the offensive line last offseason. It's a very interesting read. That being said, if the Bears want to get back to the playoffs, they will do more to address the offensive line this offseason.
14 (15)
9-7
12th                  9th                3rd                7th
When you run as hot and cold as the Giants do, you have to take the good (2 Super Bowls) with the bad (missing the playoffs in 2010, 2012). If you take steps to control the valleys, sometimes you end up sacrificing the peaks as well. Sure the Giants could spend more resources on their back 7, but then would their front four have been good enough to storm through the playoffs twice?
 
15 (17)
7-8-1
29th                 17th                17th                   19th
Given what Jeff Fisher did with the pu-pu platter of a roster he inherited, his coach compatriots in the NFC West (against whom he went 4-1-1 this season - that includes two playoff teams) can't be resting easy.
 
16 (14)
8-8
18th               16th                19th                20th
While it must be bitterly disappointing to play in the final game of the season with win and you're in implications and lose two years in a row, it's kind of a mircale that the Cowboys reached that point in both seasons. This is a shallow team, and usually shallow teams get exposed because most everyone has to deal with injuries in an NFL season.
 
17 (20)
7-9
23rd                25th              30th              29th
Okay Cam Newton and (head coach) Ron Rivera, it's time to show us your best from the start of the season. Two years in a row you have started slow, then turned it on when the playoffs were kaput and the pressure was off.
 
18 (16)
7-9
17th                30th                23rd               17th
Mercifully the season ends for the Saints. The biggest winner in New Orleans? Sean Payton. His 13-3 team fell to 7-9 and out of the playoffs with him away, netting him a cool $8 Million plus a season from a franchise desperate to keep him.
 
19 (18)
8-8
15th               18th                11th                      11th
This team needs some youthful talent infusion on the offensive line and all over the defense. Add in the presumed loss of Mike Wallace, and this flagship franchise all of a sudden has a lot of needs. 
20 (19)
7-9
31st                22nd                13th                  18th
Hard to look at this year as anything but a success for the Dolphins. In order to make year 2 of the Philbin/Tannehill a success too, they need to upgrade their receiver core substantially.
 
21 (22)
7-9
22nd                 24th                21st                      13th
While the gains made in year 1 are heartening for Bucs fans, the late-season inconsistency of Josh Freeman has to be alarming. 
22 (23)
7-9
16th               12th                22nd             27th
Black Monday strikes. In reality the next guy in for Norv Turner has one mandate: figure out what the heck is wrong with Philip Rivers. I suspect the first part of that solution is to upgrade the offensive line.
 
23 (25)
6-10
21st                32nd                27th              24th
Surprisingly the head coach gets a reprieve. But in reality this makes sense. Jake Locker needs as little volatility as possible as Tennesee tries to figure out if he's the answer at quarterback or not. They have to give him at least another season, and changing his whole coaching staff would not help him put his best foot forward by the start of next season.
 
24 (24)
6-10
20th                 20th                24th               25th
Black Monday strikes…just not for Rex, which is a good move for the Jets. Rex can still coach, and the Jets' problem wasn't not playing up to their talent level, it was that this was their talent level. The Tebow debacle stains everyone in the franchise, but most of this team's problems are roster contruction, and hitching their wagon to Mark Sanchez. Those fall on the GM.
 
25 (29)
6-10
13th               21st                26th                 21st
Black Monday strikes. A fitting end to this miserable disappointment of a season for the Bills.
 
26 (21)
5-11
32nd                 31st                28th                 22nd
Black Monday strikes. There was some hope for the coach and GM when this team was 5-8, but the three straight losses to end the season, combined with the new owner bringing in a new team president doomed them both.
27 (26)
4-12
7th                 8th                16th              26th
Black Monday strikes. It was time for Andy Reid to go, sometimes the message gets tuned out after enough time if it keeps coming from the same speaker. Reid would be wise to remember to use his running back in his next coaching stop. 
28 (27)
5-11
24th                 5th                20th               28th
Black Monday strikes. There's plenty of good on this Arizona roster, but when you mismanage the most important position on the team for 3 years running, you don't have a leg to stand on when arguing to keep your job. That Whisenhunt is an offensive coach makes his quarterback failures all the more head-scratching.
 
29 (28)
4-12
19th                 23rd                15th              23rd
Perhaps the sting of this 4-12 season will convince the Lions to invest in something remotely resembling an NFL secondary. Or a running back. Maybe. 
30 (30)
4-12
25th                 29th                29th           31st
The Raiders need to take the long term view of this franchise because it will be a couple of more years until they restock the roster to the point that they can compete again. 
31 (31)
2-14
28th                 27th                32nd             30th
The GM search will involve one question: "Will you sign off on bringing in Tim Tebow so we can finally sell out our games? What? Come back! Why are you running away?"
 
32 (32)
2-14
10th                 28th                31st             32nd
Black Monday strikes. This team had 5 pro bowlers on it. Does that mean the pro bowl is a laughingstock or that this team simply underachieved at an alarming rate? The answer, of course, is yes. 



Biggest risers:
Buffalo (4 spots)
Carolina (3 spots)

Biggest fallers:

Cleveland (5 spots)
Houston, Dallas, New Orleans (2 spots)

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