Wednesday, January 9, 2013

NFL Playoff Power Poll, Divisional Round

Below is the second edition of the NFL playoff power poll. I didn't cull the eliminated teams as while they obviously can't win the 2013 Super Bowl, it was worth stepping back a bit to determine where they stand heading into their off-seasons. 

Rank (Last)
Team
Record/     Seed
Notes
1 (1)
13-3        AFC1
Nothing has changed in one week regarding how I feel about either the Broncos or the Patriots.
2 (2)
12-4     AFC2
Not that it's an against the grain opinion, but I'm not the only person writing in the Denver-New England AFC Championhsip game matchup in pen already. Dan Shaughnessy wrote as much in a column for the Boston Globe, and he's been getting slammed for it on Twitter and by the Houston players and media. Arian Foster in particular made a few paragrpahs of Shaughnessy's column into his Twitter avatar. 
3 (4)
12-5       NFC3
Am I really bumping up the Packers for throttling a Minnesota team that started Joe Webb at quarterback? No. I'm bumping up a Packers team that took a major defensive flaw (handling Adrian Peterson) and corrected it in a week. I'm also bumping up a team that has easily the best quarterback remaining in the NFC. 
4 (3)
11-4-1       NFC2
But this was more of a bump down for the 49ers. The news I keep reading out of San Francisco about Justin Smith and his triceps isn't encouraging. It seems like he'll play, but at a level far from 100%. With Justin Smith, this is a very dangerous defense. Without him? They take a big step back.
5 (5)
13-3        NFC1
I'm still not sold on the Falcons, but this team is going to spend the entire week listening to how they can't win in the playoffs. How they keep falling on their faces once the regular season ends. And how they were blown out of their building the last time they had the #1 seed in the NFC. Combine all of that with a coach and quarterback combination I trust to be ready to play, and they won't be an easy out.
6 (6)
12-5       NFC5
You can't affix "can't win on the road in the playoffs" to these Seahawks anymore. Even accounting for RG3's injury changing the course of the game, Washington went up 14-0 in the first quarter against a young team starting a rookie quarterback. Do you think Mark Sanchez or Joe Flacco would emerge from that start without being completely rattled? Heck no. But Russell Wilson did, and methodically led his team back, overcoming some missteps along the way. I'd feel much more confident about their chances this weekend if a) they weren't facing their second straight cross-country road trip and b) the game wasn't scheduled for 10 AM PST.
7 (10)
11-6         AFC4
Looking at these two teams last weekend, it's no contest who looked like the better bet to spoil the destgined Manning-Brady battle. Baltimore looked hungry, they looked confident, and they looked a bit dangerous. Can you attribute much of that to the Colts' limitations? Definitely.  But at least we saw some fire.
8 (9)
13-4         AFC3
By contrast, Houston sleepwalked through their game against Cincinnati. The Bengals mustered 6 points of offense all game long, and were borderline incompetent on third down. Yet they were about 30 yards away from winning the game late in the 4th quarter, because Houston couldn't put them away. We at least saw a spark from the Ravens last weekend. We saw nothing of the kind from the Texans.
9 (12)
11-6       AFC5
They have the quarterback position settled beyond a shadow of a doubt. That gives them a big leg up on the remaining competition. As they continue to add pieces around Luck, they should only get better.
10 (11)
10-7      AFC6
Is it time to start questioning Andy Dalton? I'd say instead there should be some sizeable expectations placed on this team going into next season. Dalton will need to raise his game for the team to meet those expectations. I still believe he has it in him, but his play in the last 4 games of the season make it an open question.
11 (8)
10-7        NFC6
Both of these final two teams have injuries at the quarterback position, but Christian Ponder isn't facing 6-8 months of recovery time for his arm injury.
12 (7)
10-7      NFC4
Without RG3 for at least the next 6-8 months, this team takes a big step back. It's not that Kirk Cousins is a terrible backup, but so much of Washington's offense is tied to RG3's unique talents.

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