Friday, January 18, 2013

NFL Picks, Championship Games

This was set up to be a glorious weekend.

While I'm a Seahawks fan, my wife is a Patriots fan. This doesn't drive any sort of wedge between us, because the Seahawks have been non-threatening for most of our lives, and they only play each other once every four years. That is, unless they meet in the Super Bowl.

Hahahahahahaha, oh, that was a good one.

Except this year...it wasn't a joke. At the start of the playoffs, the Patriots were the odds-on favorite to make the Super Bowl out of the AFC and Seattle was a very legitimate darkhorse in the NFC. At least three people asked one of us how we'd handle a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl.

The Texans beat the Bengals, and Seattle came back on the Redskins, setting up Pats-Texans II and Seahawks-Falcons...both on the same day.

And then the game started...and Seattle didn't. I stayed calm at 3-0, then 10-0, and even 13-0. When it became 20-0 and Seattle had blown two chances at points by halftime, I was disgusted. Then Russell Wilson started to work his magic. 20-7, 27-7, 27-14, 27-21...and then the Seahawks got the ball back with 3 minutes left, 61 yards away from the end zone. At that moment 2 ideas immediately flashed in my head:

1. Seattle is going to score, and they're going to take the lead
2. They're going to leave too much time on the clock and lose 30-28

I blame my New England upbringing. Boston fans can be pretty miserable people (thanks to the Red Sox, mostly). They look for heartbreak around every corner. While I may not root for the teams, I did pick up all of the mannerisms. Honestly, expecting the Seahawks to punch it in for a touchdown in that situation is a huge step, and to that I can only say Russell Wilson has won me over. I don't always understand how it happens, but I believe he will put the team in position to win the game.

If the defense can hold it. They failed against Detroit. They failed against Miami. And they got their chance against Atlanta. And they failed, again.

And just like that, the season was over. For the rest of that day, I was kind of in a fog. I pseudo-watched the Patriots-Texans game, but I was detached. This was unsurprising. I've been through losses like this, and it hurts something fierce.

Yes, it's only football, but that's really the only sport I have left to get invested in. I have a wife and kid, and a job, and responsibilities. My days of being emotionally invested in football, baseball, basketball, college football, and soccer are done. It's not sustainable. Now I'm down to the NFL and the World Cup. That's not to say I don't watch the other sports, but I'm not invested in teams enough to live and die with the results. When Notre Dame was jobbed out of lost out on the 1993 National Title I was beside myself. This year they played for the title, and sure I wanted them to win, but when it was clear they wouldn't (about 27 seconds into the game), I shrugged.

But these were my Seahawks. The last sports team I clung to as an irrational fan. And so yes, the disappointment was expected. But then I started having these other feelings. Feelings of calm. Belief. I had just watched the third-youngest team in the league stage the greatest 4th quarter comeback in the history of the playoffs on the road against the #1 seed in their conference. Behind a rookie quarterback. This team will be back. Will they win a Super Bowl? Who knows. But they should be in the conversation for the foreseeable future. That is great comfort in times of sports fan hurt.

So am I disappointed? Absolutely. This Seahawks team had a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl this year. Anytime you don't cash in on a year like that it hurts. Tomorrow is promised to no one, especially in a league with a hard salary cap where teams rise and fall each year. But I'd much rather be the Seahawks than the Broncos. Both teams lost in heartbreaking fashion. But Denver's window remains open as long as Peyton Manning stays Peyton Manning. Even the best case scenario is probably 3 more years. Seattle's window? It's still opening.

Onto the picks.

San Francisco (-4) over ATLANTA
One of the depressing parts of Seattle's loss is now there is nothing to stop Jim Harbaugh from lifting the NFC Championship trophy. The Falcons will not contain Colin Kaepernick. They might slow down his runs in the read option (assuming Mike Nolan watches film, unlike Dom Capers), but they have no pass rush, so either Kaepernick will sit back and pick them apart, or he'll just take off and run for 9-10 yards a pop. Either way, Atlanta's defense won't stop San Francisco.

And offensively? The Falcons should have some more success throwing the ball, but they won't have any success running the ball. That's where Seattle lost the game, by letting the carcass of Michael Turner burn them for 98 yards. Will it be enough? Not to keep up with the 49ers' dynamic offense. If the Falcons can't run, they can't control the clock. Without that, the birds are toast.

49ers 41, Falcons 24

Baltimore (+8) over NEW ENGLAND
I'm not ready to drop my Joe Flacco is mediocre crusade, but I do have to acknowledge that he has played a very good playoffs so far. The thing is, Flacco's immobile, so if you can move him off of his spot in the pocket, his accuracy goes to hell. Denver didn't do this. They had great edge pass rushers, but Baltimore's tackles simply pushed them behind Flacco, allowing him to step up, set, and throw.

This game will come down to New England's interior defensive linemen getting pressure and moving Flacco around. Namely, Vince Wilfork. If Baltimore can't neutralize Wilfork, they aren't winning the game.

But then again, this is mostly the same team that came into Foxborough last year and should have won...or at least sent the game into overtime. Their offense is better, their defense is somewhat worse, and their kicker is miles better. Plus they're playing to stave off Ray Lewis' retirement for two more weeks. At this point, one game from the Super Bowl, the emotion starts to feed them again.

Is it enough to get Baltimore over the hump and to the Super Bowl? No. But it's enough to keep Patriots  fans very uncomfortable until the final whistle sounds.

Patriots 27, Ravens 23


Last week: 2-2 (.500)
Postseason: 5-3 (.625)
Regular Season: 114-133-9 (.463)

2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)

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