In all seriousness, I’m back just in time for football season (what a coincidence!) And what would the last couple of days before football starts up again be without a preview column?
This morning's part of the preview is a reverse power poll based on how I think the season will play out for each team. Later I will add my predicted standings and my 2012/2013 Super Bowl Champion.
Tier 1: Hello, this is Matt Barkley, if you’re on this list, please stop calling me and leaving messages on my machine with the heavy panting. Thank you.
32. Cleveland Browns – Sorry, Cleveland. I’d prefer not to do this to you, but I just don’t see much room for optimism. The team last year was bad, and yes, going from Colt McCoy to someone else is clearly an upgrade, but I’m not excited for Year 1 of the Brandon Weeden era, especially since he was spotted reading that AARP brochure. The player Cleveland should be excited about, Trent Richardson, is iffy for the opener thanks to complications from getting his knee scoped a few weeks back, and their best defensive player (CB Joe Haden) is facing a drug suspension. Add in the dearth of anything else resembling skill position talent and the division they play in, and this will be a long year in the Dawg Pound House.
31. Miami Dolphins – The first clue that this might not be Miami’s year was shipping off their best offensive talent for 2 3rd round picks. The second clue was agreeing to do Hard Knocks after practically everyone else in the NFL turned them down. The third clue was the cutting of their entire NFL scouting department. What? That didn’t happen? Are you sure? They did pick up Chad Johnson. Really? Okay, fine, scratch that last one. Their first round pick turned starting quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, made headlines with Texas A&M last season for the number of halftime leads that turned into backbreaking losses. This led to a drop in his stock, as well as the firing of his coach. Good news: he won’t blow many leads this year. Bad news: That’s because Miami won’t have many leads.
30. Minnesota Vikings – Yes Adrian Peterson will play starting this weekend. That’s terrific news and an amazing testament to his determination and work ethic. However, there is no way Peterson will resemble anything close to his old self until sometime next season even if everything goes right in his recovery. For the 2007 or 2008 Minnesota Vikings, that would be okay. For the 2012 Vikings, not so much. Add in the division they play in, and we’re not looking at many wins.
29. St. Louis Rams – This is a team on the right track, but they won’t get the full return on their RGIII pick trade haul until the next season or two. However, there is still a very large question mark, is Sam Bradford the guy to lead this team back to contention, or should we be looking at this as another case of a team busting with the selection of a QB #1 overall? Unfortunately, Bradford still has very little help around him, so drawing a conclusion one way or the other is less than fair, but sooner or soonest, he’s going to have to take that next step.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars – New owner Shad Khan insists he wants to keep the team in Jacksonville, even as the team continues to tarp over seats so they can claim Red Sox-like sell-outs and not have their games blacked out in their home market. The team has proceeded to hire a retread head coach who went 14-18 in his earlier stint as an NFL Head Coach, saw their marquee player hold out all offseason until this past weekend looking for a new deal, and announced a deal to serve as the “home” team in the NFL’s annual London game for 4 straight seasons starting in 2013. Get excited, Jaguars fans! Blaine Gabbert is back in all of his mediocrity (you hope).
Tier 2: Wait ‘tll next year. No, really.
27. Indianapolis Colts – The luckiest franchise in the NFL. 1995/96 they come within a last second hail mary pass of making the Super Bowl. 1996/97 they make the playoffs and fall in the first round. 1997/98 they finish with the #1 overall pick the year Peyton Manning comes out. 2009/10 they come potentially the recovery of a halftime onside kick away from winning the Super Bowl. 2010/11 they make the playoffs and fall in the first round. 2011/12 they finish with the #1 overall pick when Andrew Luck comes out. They’ll be outgunned this year, but the most important position on their team is set for the next 10-15 years.
26. Washington Redskins – This year’s Carolina. They won’t end up with a great record, but they’ll be exciting with RGIII under center. Griffin needs to build consistency and develop his passing game to succeed, but they’ll also put their spoiler stamp on the NFC East race.
25. Oakland Raiders – They had no picks in the 2012 draft until #95 overall, which hurts their depth. They also are finally in their first full season out of the Al Davis era, with a real general manager making real moves (not spending 3rd round picks on Terrelle Pryor in the supplemental draft, or spending a 1st and 2nd round pick on Carson Palmer after he’d spent half a season on the couch, etc). This team will develop, but they will take a decided step back this year before they have a chance to get going in the right direction.
24. Arizona Cardinals – Very good defense and terrific return man in Patrick Peterson (that’s how they got to 8-8 last year). Larry Fitzgerald is a top talent with what must be a severe case of signer’s remorse. After a season where he was stuck trying to catch passes from the like of Derek Andserson, Max Hall, and John Skelton, Fitzgerald demanded the Cardinals do something about the QB position or he wouldn’t re-sign with the team. The Cardinals traded for Kevin Kolb, which gave the appearance that they did something to improve the QB position without actually doing anything to improve the QB position. Fitzgerald re-signed, Kolb underwhelmed, go hurt, and lost a competition to the aforementioned Skelton this preseason.
Tier 3: The December Spoiler Alerts
23. Carolina Panthers
22. Tamp Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers are a chic darkhorse pick to make noise in the NFC playoff race. I don’t see it. Cam Newton was a force in his rookie year, but in the second half of the season his passing numbers weren’t any great shakes (especially in this era) and I just don’t see reasons to expect great improvement in the passing game. And unlike last year, where there was zero pressure (if even that much), this year there will be some modest expectations for this team, and I see them struggling a bit with those. I wouldn’t say to expect a regression (because that would put them back in top-5 draft pick territory and they’re better than that), but I think it will be a plateau year.
Tampa was 10-6 two seasons ago (a season with no expectations), and started out last year 4-2 before they hit a patch of adversity and their young coach showed that he was in fact in over his head as they dropped their final 10 games (many of them in non-competitive fashion). He’s out and former Rutgers coach Greg Schiano is in. Whether he succeeds or fails, he is not in over his head. Tampa will rebound modestly while Schiano remakes the team in his image.
21. Tennessee Titans – The Titans were the lone team last year to finish above .500 and not make the playoffs, losing out to Cincinnati on a head-to-head tiebreaker. That was with veteran Matthew Hasselbeck under center. This year they’re turning the keys over to second year player Jake Locker. Locker is dynamic, but had substantial issues with accuracy during his college career. Tennessee has good talent around Locker, but I think there’s a step back coming for Tennessee.
20. New York Jets – The Jets went to 2 straight AFC title games on the back of their defense, a solid running game, and hot streaks at the right time from Mark Sanchez. Last year the defense regressed some, the running game vanished, and Sanchez was not able to raise his game to compensate. Now Sanchez has the spectre of Tim Tebow over his shoulder for the fans to dream about. The running game doesn’t look much different from last year, except for the guy calling the plays. Sanchez needs to show a) he has the talent and consistency to lead this team on the field and b) he has the maturity to lead this team off the field during the rocky patches. I’m not buying he shows enough of either.
Tier 4: Shouldn’t we be a couple rungs higher?
19. Detroit Lions - Last year was a huge step forward for the Lions. But for those of you hoping/expecting them to build on it, remember a few things. 1) Matthew Stafford has stayed healthy for a full season once before. 2) They still have no running game. 3) They don’t do much in the way of stopping the run, which only works when you jump out to leads consistently. 4) Can Calvin Johnson possibly duplicate last year’s numbers? 5) They struggled dealing with the pressures of having the bullseye on their backs as the season went on, but their start was so terrific they still got into the playoffs. There’s also the issue of Calvin Johnson being on the cover of Madden ’13.
18. Dallas Cowboys – Again, on paper, they look dangerous. But something always happens in Dallas where production doesn’t measure up to expectations. We’re still not sure Jason Garrett is the ready for the big stage as head coach, and can the defense stop the quarterbacks in its own division?
17. New Orleans Saints – Yes, I think the storm around this team all season thanks to Bountygate will take its toll. The offense will be fine. Drew Brees is back, and the only piece they lost is Robert Meachem, who was so great Drew Brees didn’t even target him in multiple games last season. The defense is the big question mark. On the plus side, they don’t have Gregg Williams dialing up blitzes just so he can be aggressive anymore, so that’s a positive. On the other hand, they’re changing schemes, have been hit with injuries this preseason, and lost their captain (Jonathan Vilma) thanks to a bounty suspension.
16. San Diego Chargers – I’m chalking up last season as a blip on the Philip Rivers radar. Whether he has decent receivers to throw to or not hasn’t seemed to matter in the past, so I’m not holding that against the Chargers. And if they’ve made strides in pressuring opposing quarterbacks, they could make a run at a playoff spot. I am holding the continued presence of Norv Turner on their sideline against them, though. Turner’s a brilliant offensive mind, but he’s missing something when it comes to stepping up to the head coaching chair. A few years ago San Diego was always the most talented team that ended up falling short of expectations (2007 being the lone exception). Now they’re just another team that misses the playoffs.
Tier 5: It’s a game of inches.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers – It’s tough to make a case for betting against the Steelers. From ownership on down, this is a model organization. However, the chinks in the armor seem more numerous and concerning than normal. Their running game looks poor with Mendenhall recovering from his knee injury. The defense is another year older. Roethlisberger claims to have a partially torn rotator cuff, which would be less of a concern if his offensive line had given the Steelers any hope they would do a better job keeping him clean this season. They haven’t, and to add injury to insult, 1st round pick David DeCastro may have to go on IR. Add in Mike Wallace’s protracted holdout (which never ends badly), and the signs are not pointing to a repeat playoff performance.
14. Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals surprised many by emerging from the ashes of Carson Palmer’s trade me or I’m retiring ultimatum with a rookie quarterback taking this team to the playoffs. That being said, they were 0-4 against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and only made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth. I’m not predicting a fall to well under .500 (or Cincinnati as the NFL has called it for decades) but I’m not buying that the Bengals are ready for a prolonged run of regular season success based off of 1 good year.
13. Buffalo Bills – Last year the Bills needed Ryan Fitzpatrick to be lights out and have their defense force multiple turnovers to win games. Harvard men can do many things (I guess), but carry a team for a full season is not one of them. But this year the defense looks legitimately good (not just feast on turnovers good), which when combined with the return of a healthy Fred Jackson should keep Fitzpatrick’s role to something he can deliver. Add in the fall of the Jets and the scrap heap that is Miami and I see a bump in wins for the Bills.
12. New York Giants – Really? The defending Super Bowl champions at 12? Are you crazy? Or, alternatively: Really? A team that barely squeaked into the playoffs and finished last season with a negative point differential at 12? Are you crazy? And that’s the question. Which Giants team will we see? The hot juggernaut from last postseason? Or the inconsistent team of last regular season? Given the choice I’ll bet against a 17-week-long hot streak.
Tier 6: The Party-Crashers
11. Baltimore Ravens – Their ceiling hinges on Joe Flacco. At some point age has to take its toll on their defense, and with Terrell Suggs a giant question mark coming off an offseason Achilles injury, they have little in the way of pass rush. Even with a little regression, I think they have enough to make the playoffs. But if they’re going to contend again, Flacco has to step up and be more than a mediocre quarterback. I don’t see him having it in him.
10. Kansas City Chiefs – Honestly I don’t see Matt Cassel having it in him either. But this defense can get after the passer, and their running game is scary on paper. Of course, that assumes Jamaal Charles comes back and Peyton Hillis recovers his desire after last year in Cleveland. Add in their switch from Todd Haley (who’s so awesome he got Kurt Warner to cuss him out) to Romeo Crennel (who’s only other opportunity came in Cleveland, so maybe he’s okay after all) and the players have a leader they’ll fight for.
9. Seattle Seahawks – This team has a scary good defense, and it was scary good in the second half of last season with minimal help from the pass rush. With improvement to a middle-of-the-pack pass rush this season the defense (especially the secondary) should get even better. And yes, they have a rookie quarterback starting, but he’s a giant upgrade over the Tarvaris Jackson show Seahawks fans were subjected to last year. There will be some growing pains, but this defense and the running game should provide some buffer for Russell Wilson as he attempts to continue to defy the experts who look over him due to his limited (for an NFL quarterback) height.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Don’t we know what the Atlanta Falcons are at this point? A steady, potentially dynamic team that will put together a good regular season but lacks that extra gear they need to step up their game in the playoffs. The Falcons are making noises about how they’ll put more on Matt Ryan’s plate (which they’ll need as Michael Turner continues his age and usage-related descent), but their core identity will remain as long as Mike Smith remains in charge.
7. Philadelphia Eagles – So, so much went wrong last year. Yes, Michael Vick will miss games due to injury, but the crazy amounts of turnovers, the heatbreaking end-of-game losses, the usage of Vince Young in important games, and the misuse of key defensive personnel, that can’t continue. I’d feel better about the defense if they didn’t keep their old offensive line coach with no defensive coaching experience whatsoever in that role, but even he can’t be that mind-numbingly bad again…right? This feels like one of those picks I maybe should take back. Luckily I didn’t make it on the internet, where nothing ever goes away.
Tier 7: The Tough Outs.
6. San Francisco 49ers – They have something here. The defense is superb. The special teams (Kyle Williams notwithstanding) is very good, and the offense knows its role. The thing is, this is not a 13-3 team, unless everything breaks right (like last year). But 10-11 wins? Absolutely. But don’t try to sell me on this being a dangerous passing game. Not with Alex Smith back in the driver’s seat. Or with Randy Moss (so great at this point that he was out of football last year) and Mario Manningham (inconsistency is his middle name) as the big WR additions.
5. Denver Broncos – Peyton Manning doesn’t have to be 100% back physically to where he was in 2010. But he looks close enough from what we’ve seen this preseason, and that’s good enough to make the Broncos dangerous. Especially with a defense that can get after the passer like Denver can.
4. Chicago Bears – Look past Jay Cutler’s perpetual bitter beer face, the man can sling the football. Now he has a true number 1 receiver in Brandon Marshall, and he’s made sweet music with Marshall before. Yes, his offensive line stinks, but now his offensive coordinator won’t be effectively sabotaging Cutler by calling for 7-step drop after 7-step drop. The new offensive regime will prioritize keeping Cutler upright, and if they can keep him healthy for 16 games, this Bears team will be in the playoffs. Strong running game, strong defense, and good quarterback? That equals playoffs.
Tier 8: The Contenders.
3. New England Patriots – Is Bill Belichick still the coach? Check. Is Tom Brady still the quarterback? Check. They actually made their multiple first round picks AND spent them on pass rush? Well, the only way this defense can go is up, so if they do actually improve…yikes NFL, yikes.
2. Houston Texans – This team was looking like the top seed in the AFC until Matt Schaub went down and Houston had to start rookie 5th round pick TJ Yates for the final quarter of their season and the playoffs. And still they almost made it to the AFC Championship Game. That’s how good this defense is. And they’re young. Add in their lack of divisional competition, and this team could easily be looking at a bye.
1. Green Bay Packers – Just like the Patriots, the offense is back with some small improvements, and the defense has spent resources trying to get better. And it’s not like they have to get much better. Keep Rodgers healthy, and they’re still in the driver’s seat.
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