Thursday, December 6, 2012

NFL Power Poll, Week 13

This week's power poll, coming at the 3rd quarter point in the season, contains the information of where each team ranked at each quarter point of the season.

In the quarterly ranks column,


Rank (Last)
Team
Record
Quarterly Ranks
Notes
1 (2)
11-1
2nd                 1st                2nd
Still the best team in the NFL. You can trust their defense, their passing game, their running game, and their special teams won't hurt them either. If you're going to beat them, you have to do it throwing the ball, as their coverage isn't great. But then you have to find a way to neutralize their pass rush, which is superb. 
2 (3)
9-3
3rd                 6th                7th
Each year they have a couple stumbles in the early half of the season, and we wonder, is this finally the year the Brady/Belichick magic wears off? Then we get to the last part of the season and there they are again, rising to the top. The Patriots are a combined 20-0 since 2010 in the second halves of their seasons. 
3 (1)
8-3-1
 6th                4th                4th
Okay, Colin Kaepernick has now cost Jim Harbaugh's team a game. He may have won a game Alex Smith would not have (New Orleans), but who knows. In the end, Harbaugh's right, Kaepernick has it in him to lift the 49ers to higher heights than Smith can. The question is, what has he sacrificed this year by making the change midseason. A shot at the Super Bowl? Another berth in the NFC title game?  
4 (6)
9-3
5th                 11th               8th
It's strange. 3 of the top 4 teams in m the power poll are AFC teams, yet the NFC is clearly the stronger conference. The thing is, all of the NFC top contenders have easy to see flaws, or simply haven't passed the "look" test recently. The top AFC teams have Brady, Manning, or simply show almost no weakness. 
5 (5)
11-1
8th                 2nd                1st
Everyone gives Atlanta grief for not looking like a top team. And they don't. But while Atlanta gets grief for a host of near-losses to unworthy teams, the other contenders get dinged for actual losses. This won't get settled until the playoffs. 
6 (7)
8-4
1st                  10th                6th
The Packers look very different, griding out wins (except against the Giants), but is has to be heartening for their fans to see their defense actually carry some of the weight this year. 
7 (4)
7-5
12th                  9th                3rd
This team is like the 2005-2007 era Detroit Pistons of the NBA: they need a challenge to put forth their best effort. They will absolutely lollygag through games they don't feel are worth the effort, and then they'll erupt in a fury when everyone starts counting them out. 16 points against the Redskin defense? Perhaps they should rename themselves the New York Giant Rasheed Wallaces. 
8 (11)
7-5
9th                 15th                10th
The Seahawks are another absolutely frustrating team. This team has now beaten Dallas, Green Bay, New England, and Chicago. Russell Wilson looks like the real deal. But they've also lost to Arizona, St. Louis, Detroit, and Miami. And the defense is pretty clearly regressing. This team could fight its way to the second seed, or they could finish out of the playoffs entirely. 
9 (8)
8-4
4th                  7th                 5th
I overrated this team, slightly, both before the season and during their 7-1 start. Their defense is great, but no defense could sustain what they did for the first half of the season. What I didn't realize until recently is how bad the offense is, even with Jay Cutler. That defense put up a ton of points and handed the offense a lot of short fields. 
10 (12)
8-4
27th                 26th                14th
I still don't believe they're a threat to the top 3 in the AFC, not by any stretch, but at some point you have to give them credit for continuing to win, even if it's ugly and even if it's against a cake schedule. 
11 (13)
7-5
15th               18th                11th
This is the difference between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. In big moments, Pittsburgh still makes you beat them. Baltimore is likely to beat itself (Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff agree with me). 
12 (17)
6-6
26th               19th                18th
Mike Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan, and Robert Griffin III have done a tremendous job putting together an offense in which RG3 can be successful right out of the gate. Are there limits to what he can do right now? Sure, he's a rookie. But unless he gets hurt, this team could make a serious playoff push, something no one foresaw 2 months ago. 
13 (10)
6-6
22nd                 24th                21st
Forget the record, merely getting Josh Freeman out of his season-long 2011 funk is enough to determine Greg Schiano has done a terrific year-1 job with this team. Adding a workhorse back in Doug Martin has them sitting really pretty 1 year into the rebuild/reload. 
14 (9)
9-3
11th                3rd                9th
Absolutely terrible loss, especially since it was at home. More fodder for the Joe Flacco is NOT elite club (membership: everyone except Joe Flacco). This Baltimore team has felt fradulent, even with that record, essentially since they lost Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb and their defense went from old to old and terrible. 
15 (15)
7-5
14th                 14th              25th
They're basically who they were last year. They've had a couple hiccups, and rose up to beat a couple better teams than last year's group, but they'll pretty much beat who they should beat and lose to who they should lose to. Not a very exciting team (outside of AJ Green), but there's something to be said for avoiding slipups. 
16 (16)
6-6
30th                 13th                12th
Both 1 month and 2 months ago, this looked like a team that had its quarterback of the future and was going places. Now they're playoff chances look sunk, and there are big questions surrounding whether Ponder can be the answer. 
17 (14)
5-7
17th                30th                23rd
You can talk about bounty-gate, about losing their head coach, about losing their defensive identity all you want. And it all played a part. The larger message? The margin between success and failure is razor thin in the NFL. Even the smallest loss of focus to outside distractions can turn a playoff team into a thoroughly mediocre one. 
18 (19)
5-7
31st                22nd                13th 
Ryan Tannehill has exceeded expectations, but the real surprise has been the team around him. The defense especially has proven much more ready to carry the load sooner than anticipated. 
19 (21)
5-6-1
29th           17th                17th
Jeff Fisher has been a boon to this franchise, his questionable dumb clock management decisions notwithstanding. But the best news for Rams fans? This team looks very well equipped to counter the other teams in their division (especially the 49ers). They're currently 4-0-1 in the NFC West and 1-6 outside of it. That's good, in that the first goal of any team should be to win their division, but also may make the Rams look somewhat better than they actually are. 
20 (20)
6-6
18th               16th                19th
Does anyone believe this team can mount a serious threat to the NFC East division? They're one game out of the lead, and they split with the Giants already, but who doesn't believe they'll simply find a way to let this opportunity slip away, just like so many others this season. Anyone? Anyone other than Jerry Jones? 
21 (23)
5-7
13th               21st                26th
I'm still kicking myself for buying into the 2012 Buffalo Bills. I knew better, and I still bought into it. On the bright side, I didn't actually buy into an overrated defensive lineman for over $100 million. 
22 (24)
4-8
32nd                         31st         28th
Is it possible? Are Mike Holmgren and (likely) Pat Shurmur getting raw deals here? I know it's Cleveland, and we all pretty much assume Cleveland will always stink, but there are a lot of pieces on this team, and they're not far from a .500 team already. With just a few moves going right this offseason this team could contend for a playoff berth as soon as next season. 
23 (18)
4-8
19th                 23rd                15th
The playoff berth last season probably raised expectations too high for this year, but this team has too much talent to be making this many mistakes to cost themselves this many games. At some point we have to start taking a harder look at the coaching staff, and that talent. 
24 (22)
4-8
21st                32nd                27th
Young quarterbacks usually mean rocky up-and-down roads. Unfortunately for Jake Locker, everyone's seeing Andrew Luck, RG3, and Russell Wilson play so well in their first years in the league. At some point people will start asking why Locker can't show some consistency. 
25 (25)
5-7
20th                              20th    
24th
How much more rope can Mark Sanchez get? Oh, right, $8.25 million more, given that's the guaranteed coin he's got coming to him next season. Good luck with that, Rex and Mike. 
26 (29)
3-9
7th                 8th                16th
I've called them out as quitters for weeks, so I should say that I saw some legitimate fight in them on Sunday night against the Cowboys, so I'll give them that. Doesn't change the overall fact that it's a toxic team that needs (and will get) a total housecleaning this offseason though. 
27 (27)
4-8
16th               12th                22nd
4 more games of Norv, Chargers fans. 4 more games of Norv. Then you'll be free...or you'll get so fed up that they have the pretext to move to LA. Hmmm.....
28 (26)
4-8
24th                 5th                20th
Ken Whisenhunt seems like a decent coach, and an intelligent guy. But he cost his team 3 shots at victory by handing his quarterback job to a guy who has no business being in the league, let alone starting a game. In his last 3 games, Larry Fitzgerald has 5 catches for 67 yards. No, that's not his average, that's the total for 3 games. If you can't get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald twice a game, then just go home and never come back. 
29 (28)
3-9
23rd                25th              30th
Carolina coaches have said that in the early part of the season, Cam was struggling, so they scaled back the playbook, including much of the read option they had implemented. Understand that the read option is what made Vince Young (no mental giant) look like a player. If Cam can't handle the read option, I'd be gravely concerned about him being able to handle the quarterback position in the NFL. 
30 (30)
2-10
28th                 27th                32nd
Well, the Chad Henne honeymoon is officially over. Still, 2 weeks is pretty good for a literal honeymoon. It's also a longer stretch of competent quarterback play than Blaine Gabbert has provided in his limited career. 
31 (31)
3-9
25th                 29th                29th
They just need to get to the draft and start infusing some new talent onto this roster. This is a 4-5 year rebuild they've got ahead of them. 
32 (32)
2-10
10th                 28th                31st
I consciously didn't comment on the horrible situation this past weekend because there's no way I could do it any sort of justice. I can't imagine the pain so many must be suffering through, and I really feel for the poor little baby. 

Biggest risers:
Washington (5 spots)
Seattle, Philadelphia (3 spots)

Biggest fallers:
Baltimore, Detroit (5 spots)
New York Giants, Tampa Bay, New Orleans (3 spots)

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