NFL Picks, Week 4

But first, three thoughts on the Thursday Night game:

- I may have to back off Brandon Weeden a bit. After his effort that equaled a QB rating of 5.1 (out of a possible 158.3, don't ask) in week 1 spoiled a game in which Cleveland forced 5 turnovers, he's put up a couple of decent games. Not good games, but decent ones. And when you consider that he has no one to throw to (seriously, Cleveland's best receiver can't catch, which seems like an important skill for a wide receiver), and then that he's had his team one score away from winning each game, and maybe he's a keeper. Of course, he better be, considering he's 29 already.

- I was all set to scorch the Baltimore defense for allowing 16 points to Cleveland at home. I was all set to rail about how Baltimore simply doesn't get up for games against inferior opponents, which has cost them multiple home playoff games in the Harbaugh/Flacco era. But in looking closer, the Browns scored one touchdown, and kicked 3 field goals. All three field goals were 50+ yards. And the Browns were helped on those drives by penalties and special teams. Not that those are any less a part of the game, but Baltimore's defense didn't do all that poorly. They still can't get consistent pressure on the quarterback with just 4 rushers though, which should get exploited by the better teams they face.

- What to say about Joe Flacco? He threw for 356 yards, averaged over 7 yards per attempt, and led the Ravens to another win (they're 3-1 now on the season). On the other hand, he threw a terrible interception in the red zone, and only led his team to 23 points against Cleveland. People (Joe himself included) keep trying to make a case to put Flacco up there with the elite QBs in the league, and I just don't see it yet. He's more consistent now than he has been, but he's still too inconsistent to be ranked as a top quarterback in this league.

As always, home team is in CAPS.

ATLANTA (-7) over Carolina 
Be it by pressuring Cam Newton into mistakes or simply blowing the Panthers defense off the field, Atlanta should win this one going away.

New England (-4) over BUFFALO
If we see the same offense as last week, Buffalo won't keep up. And when I say the same offense I don't mean 30 points, I mean the one that runs through Tom Brady, not Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead.

Minnesota (+4.5) over DETROIT
Detroit has had trouble stopping the run (see the San Francisco game). That's the only game they've struggled in, but the other two games were against Stephen Jackson and the artist formerly known as Chris Johnson (sorry fantasy football owners). Minnesota ran 41 times against the 49ers defense, with Ponder making enough plays through the air too. Detroit has to get out to an early lead or they're in trouble. Both of these pass defenses are terrible, but only Matt Stafford comes into this game with an injured hip.

KANSAS CITY (+1) over San Diego 
San Diego has beaten up on the dregs of the league (Oakland and Tennessee). Kansas City has only beaten still winless New Orleans. Jamaal Charles seemed to get untracked last week, and Rivers turned back into Captain Turnover.

Seattle (-3) over ST. LOUIS
I'm worried about a big letdown game here. Short week, early road game that feels like a 10AM start to a Pacific coast team, and its a divisional game. Add in the poor offensive showing and there are a lot of reasons to pick St. Louis. But then I try to see Sam Bradford moving the ball against this defense and I just don't see it happening. Seahawks win a low scoring one.

San Francisco (-4) over NEW YORK JETS
The game the 49ers defense plays (+2.5) over the game the Jets defense talks
I'm sticking with the 49ers as a legit power and chalking the Minnesota game up to a blip on the radar. It's either than or buy into Mark Sanchez putting the team on his back against a good defense.

HOUSTON (-12) over Tennessee 
Jake Locker put up a good performance last week, but now he faces a real defense. The only question is if Houston will shut their offense down so early that they leave the door open for a garbage time score to bring Tennessee back within 10.

Cincinnati (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Cincy's defense worries me. Blaine Gabbert worries me more.

ARIZONA (-5.5) over Miami 
This one feels like a letdown game as well, as Arizona has been getting praised all week for their 3-0 start with lowly Miami coming into town. But Ryan Tannehill isn't going to get it done against this defense.

DENVER (-7) over Oakland
I picked against Oakland last week in Oakland because I hadn't yet realized that the Steelers defense is not as good as everyone assumes they will be, especially with Harrison and Polamalu out. Denver's defense has actually looked good in 2012, and the game is in Denver.

GREEN BAY (-7.5) New Orleans
The Seattle Seahawks may have done two teams a favor. First, they injure John Skelton in week 1. Kevin Kolb comes in, leads the winning touchdown drive, and continues to steward the Cardinals to 3-0. Then they beat the Packers on a last-second play that ignites a firestorm throughout social and regular media (though, if you look here, maybe it's all a bit overstated). Could that be the kick in the ass the Packers need to finally get going this season? Aaron Rodgers has certainly seemed angry enougn all week to go all Hulk on us. Add in New Orelans' lack of a defense, and perhaps it's the perfect storm.

TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over Washington
Washington cant stop anyone. Really, that's what it comes down to. Griffin will get his points, and it will not be enough.

New York Giants (+1.5) over PHILADELPHIA
If we go by what we've seen so far, Eli Manning will look shaky for a quarter, Philly will turn the ball over, the running game will look terrible with Ahmad Bradshaw and good with Andre Brown, Philly will turn the ball over, Hakeem Nicks will either spend the game in the hospital or go off for 150+ yards, Philly will turn the ball over, the defensive line will spend half the game twiddling its thumbs and half the game destroying Mike Vick, and (of course) Philly will turn the ball over.

DALLAS (-3.5) over Chicago
It's hard to trust either of these teams, especially with both quarterbacks' penchant for going bad Favre on us. Well I guess that's a bad comparison for Cutler, as he looks like he's having anything but fun out there. But I don't have any evidence to make me believe that Chicago will have any combination of scheme and talent to slow down the Dallas pass rush.


This week: 0-1
Last week: 5-10-1
Season: 17-28-3

NFL Picks, Week 4 - Thursday Night Game

BALTIMORE (-12) over Sorry, Cleveland

Baltimore is coming off of a huge emotional win under he bright lights of Sunday Night. Now they get a division rival who doubles as one of the two winless teams remaining in the league. This has all the makings of a classic letdown game. If this game were being played in Cleveland, I think I'd be taking the points here. 

But I can't do it. Not with Baltimore in front of their home crowd, and not with the offense averaging 32.7 points per game. The Browns are incredibly limited offensively, even though Trent Richardson looks like the real deal. Baltimore's defense isn't what it once was, but they can shut down Richardson and put the game in the hands of rookie Brandon Weeden. I don't see that ending well for the Browns. 

NFL Power Poll, Week 3

No introduction to tie everything together this week, we're going straight to the poll.

Rank (Last)	Team	Record	Notes
1 (2)		3-0	Coming into this game, Houston looked like a poor man's version of the 49ers: Run well, defend very well, and throw enough when necessary. Then Matt Schaub went out and carved up the Denver defense with 4TDs, including touchdown passes of 60 and 52 yards. If they can stay healthy, they look like perhaps the most complete team out there.
2 (3)		3-0	This is what we expected out of the Falcons last year. #1 seed in the NFC in 2010, and then they add Julio Jones to their passing game to make it more explosive. But the passing offense didn’t take off as expected and the defense regressed, mostly due to a lack of consistent pressure. This year, we're seeing the dynamic offense and a resurgent, dynamic defense, even with their top CB out for the year. With CAR, @WAS, and OAK up next, they could easily start out 6-0.
3 (6)		2-1	I think Baltimore confirmed all of the suspicions about the team in their win over the Patriots. 1) The defense isn't what it once was. 2) They can't pressure the quarterback consistently without Suggs. 3) Their offense is better than its ever been in the Joe Flacco era, good enough even to carry the defense at times. 4) The offense is better when Ray Rice is the focal point. 5) They will (inexplicably) still forget to get Ray Rice involved for quarters and halves at a time.
4 (1)		2-1	Hard to tell if this was a blip on the radar or if this exposed some issues with the team. They didn't really face any adversity in their first two games (they jumped out early leads and never looked back), so their ability to handle early defecits remains a question mark.
5 (8)		3-0	Is Kevin Kolb ready to step up and (at least partially) justify the big deal Arizona signed him to when they traded for him last offseason? If Kolb can even be competent behind center, this Arizona team needs to be taken seriously. Philly is a flawed defense, but they can disrupt the passing game, and Kolb absolutely shredded them. Their model of success may be more sustainable than I believed.
6 (16)		2-1	I was worried about the Giants because they had showed no real ability to run the ball or cover anyone in their first two games. Then they went into Carolina on a short week missing their starting running back and ran the Panthers off the field. Maybe Bradshaw was more of the problem than any of us realized.
7 (7)		1-2	New England's 2 losses are to 2 teams who are a combined 5-1, and New England was one play away from winning both games. Sure they're 1-2, but they're not in trouble. The biggest takeaway from the Ravens game isn't the result but the performance of the offense. When they need to they can still dial up the no huddle passing attack. The thing is, they will struggle in the red zone more often this year. Settling for FGs too often is what allowed the Ravens to come back in the end. Usually the Pats make the other guy settle in the red zone.
8 (13)		2-1	There's a pretty substantial drop-off after the Patriots, in that there's great reason not to trust any of these teams. The Bears have a good (though aging) defense, and a potentially dangerous offense that is held back by their abysmal offensive line. The fact that their quarterback is a sourpuss doesn't hurt them much, but the fact that he can rather easily be convinced that he needs to do everything himself does.
9 (14)		2-1	The defense is legit (which makes the 20 points given up to Arizona all the more befuddling). The offense looks bad. Whether it's the growing pains of a rookie quarterback or a lack of talent at the wide receiver position, it's quite frankly not good enough. The defense can carry this team to elite status (but first they have to do it on the road), but they are being asked to shoulder an entirely unfair portion of the task.
10 (15)		2-1	They're still building themselves back up after the shellacking they took in Seattle in week 2. A 6-point win over a somewhat limited Buccaneers team does not impress. When that game is at home it's actually a little concerning. That Giants win is still in the back of your mind, so the potential is there, but every week that memory gets further and further away.
11 (12)		1-2	Their two losses are to 3-0 Atlanta and 3-0 Houston. And in both cases, they roared back to make it a one score game. As the season goes on, their offense will presumably get more consistent from the start of the game, leaving them fewer holes they have to dig out of in the second half.
12 (4)		1-2	Last play of the game aside, Green Bay gave up 8 sacks in the first half and scored 0 points. In the second half, they committed to the running game, gave up 0 sacks and scored 12 points. They also showed why they don't commit to the running game normally, it totally took them out of their rhythm. The saving grace for the Packers? Their first three games were against the 49ers, Bears, and Seahawks, three good to elite defenses. This week they face New Orelans, if the offense doesn't show up in a big way, then we'll know that 2011 is gone and never coming back.
13 (5)		2-1	Three games, 12 turnovers (3 more on Sunday). This was a vintage 2011 Eagles performance, in that the talent is there, but the results just don't come. In their first two games they showed an admirable resilience, which led you to believe this year could be different. In week 3 it disappeared, and without it you're just left with a whole lot of turnovers.
14 (10)		2-1	Losing to the Falcons isn't a huge deal. Getting ripped apart by the first sign of resistance they faced in the 2012 season is a giant concern.
15 (26)		2-1	Absolutely no idea what to make of this team. Split against Jacksonville and Indy, then beat San Francisco by 2 scores. As Ron Burgundy once said, "That doesn't make any sense".
16 (17)		2-1	The offense is still struggling and now the defense takes a big hit with Darrelle Revis out for the year. The reason Rex Ryan is able to generate the pressure he does is he blitzes so frequently. He's able to blitz that frequently because he could leave Revis on an island and not worry about it. None of his cornerbacks can exist on an island now, and if Rex dials back the blitzes, it remains to be seen whether or not the Jets can still generate pressure.
17 (18)		2-1	Not sold on this team. Their tilt with the Patriots this week will be a huge litmus test, especially for the defense.
18 (9)		1-2	You knew their defense was aging, but 34 points to Oakland? That is a bad sign. A very bad sign.
19 (19)		2-1	This year's team feels a lot like an extension of last year's team. The offense is better, the defense is significantly worse, and they're feasting on the cupcakes of their schedule. With their 2 Pittsburgh games looking significantly less formidable, this could be a formula for another playoff berth.
20 (11)		1-2	Sirens are sounding and red lights are flashing all over the place at Ford Field today. It was one thing when San Francisco attacked the Lions defense, most acknowledged the 49ers were perfectly set up to attack the Lions' weakenesses. Tennessee benefitted from 3 non-offensive touchdowns, but that still leaves 23 offensive points. And despite the lack of a Titans running game, Detroit's defense produced 0 sacks and a whopping 1 quarterback hit. We already knew the Lions couldn't cover anyone. If they can't generate pressure it will be a long season.
21 (21)		1-2	Averaged over 25 points in their first two games, but that looks less impressive given what we've learned about the Detroit and Washington defenses. When they faced a stout defense, it looked a lot like 2011: 6 points. They're better than last year, no doubt, but they may not be quite as dangerous a spoiler as they first looked.
22 (22)		1-2	This may be the most boring team to watch this year. They won't beat themselves, but they will struggle to beat most other teams as well. Expect many games like their 16-10 loss to Dallas last week.
23 (23)		1-2	This may be the most entertaining team of the year. They can't stop anybody, but they're letting their new toy showcase all of his abilities, so their season should basically be one long shootout.
24 (28)		1-2	I wrote them off as an absolute bottom-feeder, and I was wrong. They are much more competitive than that.
25 (24)		1-2	Well, it looks like I was wrong about the Colts defense possibly being better than anticipated. After allowing Adrian Peterson only  60 yards on 16 carries, Maurice Jones-Drew exploded for 177 yards on 28 carries. I still have them higher than Jacksonville because...
26 (29)		1-2	...I still have no faith in Blaine Gabbert. One game-winning touchdown pass in which the receiver ran for almost 70 of the 80 yards does not sway me. Take out that play, and Gabbert's line reads 9/20 for 75 yards, or 3.75 yards/attempt. That's awful.
27 (27)		1-2	Much credit to the Chiefs for coming back from 18 points down in the 3rd quarter to win, but I think this game says more about the New Orleans defense than it does about Kansas City or Jamaal Charles.
28 (20)		1-2	Cam Newton didn't handle expectations very well in this game. First he played horribly, then he got yelled at by Steve Smith for sulking, and then he continued the woe-is-us theme after the game. He's young, but he needs to shape up, fast.
29 (30)		1-2	Stat of the game from their win over the Steelers. Penalties against Oakland? 3 for 25 yards. Penalties against Pittsburgh? 10 for 81 yards. Well, that and Carson Palmer only throwing 1 interception, that was pretty big too.
30 (31)		1-2	Getting the win was big, and Jake Locker played well. There are a couple of big BUTs though. 1) It was Detroit's defense, which looks worse than advertised. 2) They got a kickoff return TD, a punt return TD, and a fumble return TD, and still needed overtime to put the Lions away.
31 (25)		0-3	I kept waiting for the Saints to break out of their funk. But every piece of new information we get indicates it's not a funk. Every team they've played has exactly one win, their game against New Orleans. The defense is bad, and the offense has lost its invincibility.
32 (32)		0-3	In game one, Cleveland forced 5 turnovers, but didn't win. In game 2, they scored 27 points, but didn't win. In game three, well....um....I don't know what the bright spot is, but they still didn't win.

Big risers, compared to last week:

1. Minnesota (11 spots) - That performance against San Francisco means you have to take another look at this team. The split against Indianapolis and Jacksonville just makes you confused as you take that extra look. 
2. New York Giants (10 spots) - You know they know how to handle big spots, and the inconsistency worries you, but if the running game isn't a total failure and the defensive line brings it, it's a scary team. 
3. Chicago, Seattle, Dallas (5 spots) - All have serious flaws, but all have put up impressive performances. 

Biggest fallers:
1. Detroit, Pittsburgh (9 spots) - Huge questions on defense for both teams, like "Can you stop anyone?"
3. Green Bay, Philadelphia, Carolina (8 spots) - Big question marks for these teams too. In Green Bay's case, their offensive line just gave up 8 sacks in one half. In Philadelphia's case, the offense is averaging 4 turnovers a game. And in Carolina's case, is Cam Newton mature enough to take the Panthers anywhere of significance? 

NFL Standings, Week 3

Here is an updated look at the standings for week 3.

AFC
AFC EAST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
New York Jets	2	1	0	0.667	2-1	2-0	0.500	0.444
Buffalo Bills	2	1	0	0.667	2-1	0-1	0.167	0.333
New England Patriots	1	2	0	0.333	1-1	0-0	0.333	0.667
Miami Dolphins	1	2	0	0.333	1-2	0-1	0.333	0.667
AFC NORTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Baltimore Ravens	2	1	0	0.667	2-0	1-0	0.500	0.556
Cincinnati Bengals	2	1	0	0.667	1-1	1-1	0.167	0.333
Pittsburgh Steelers	1	2	0	0.333	1-2	0-0	0.667	0.444
Cleveland Browns	0	3	0	0.000	0-2	0-1	0.000	0.667
AFC SOUTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Houston Texans	3	0	0	1.000	3-0	1-0	0.333	0.333
Jacksonville Jaguars	1	2	0	0.333	1-1	1-1	0.333	0.667
Indianapolis Colts	1	2	0	0.333	0-1	0-1	0.556	0.667
Tennessee Titans	1	2	0	0.333	0-2	0-0	0.333	0.444
AFC WEST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
San Diego Chargers	2	1	0	0.667	2-0	1-0	0.333	0.556
Denver Broncos	1	2	0	0.333	1-1	0-0	0.333	0.778
Oakland Raiders	1	2	0	0.333	1-2	0-1	0.333	0.444
Kansas City Chiefs	1	2	0	0.333	0-1	0-0	0.000	0.556

NFC
NFC EAST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Dallas Cowboys	2	1	0	0.667	2-1	1-0	0.500	0.556
New York Giants	2	1	0	0.667	2-1	0-1	0.333	0.444
Philadelphia Eagles	2	1	0	0.667	0-1	0-0	0.333	0.556
Washington Redskins	1	2	0	0.333	1-1	0-0	0.000	0.333
NFC NORTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Chicago Bears	2	1	0	0.667	2-1	0-1	0.333	0.333
Minnesota Vikings	2	1	0	0.667	1-0	0-0	0.500	0.444
Green Bay Packers	1	2	0	0.333	1-2	1-0	0.667	0.667
Detroit Lions	1	2	0	0.333	1-1	0-0	0.333	0.444
NFC SOUTH
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Atlanta Falcons	3	0	0	1.000	0-0	0-0	0.444	0.444
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1	2	0	0.333	1-2	1-0	0.333	0.556
Carolina Panthers	1	2	0	0.333	1-2	1-1	0.000	0.333
New Orleans Saints	0	3	0	0.000	0-2	0-1	0.000	0.333
NFC WEST
Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
Arizona Cardinals	3	0	0	1.000	2-0	1-0	0.556	0.556
Seattle Seahawks	2	1	0	0.667	2-1	0-1	0.500	0.667
San Francisco 49ers	2	1	0	0.667	2-1	0-0	0.333	0.444
St. Louis Rams	1	2	0	0.333	1-2	0-0	0.333	0.444

Interesting notes: 

• Your 3 undefeated teams left: Houston, Atlanta, Arizona
• Your 2 winless teams remaining: Cleveland, New Orleans
• Atlanta has yet to play a game in their conference. 
• Denver has faced the toughest schedule so far, thanks to games against Atlanta and Houston (both 3-0)

A Quick Look Ahead to Week 4:
San Francisco at New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00 PM) - This defensive showdown lost a little but of its luster when Darrelle Revis went down for the year on Sunday.
New Orleans at Green Bay (Sunday, 4:25 PM) - God help the replacement officials in this game. The Saints are mad at the NFL for bounty-gate, and at 0-3, are desperate. Green Bay will definitely still be steaming at how their Monday Night game ended.
New York Giants at Philadelphia (Sunday, 8:20 PM) - Two of the three division co-leaders face off. Can Philadelphia protect Vick from the Giants rush?
Chicago at Dallas (Monday, 8:30 PM) - And the third East co-leader squares off with a North co-leader on Monday night. Which quarterback maligned for careless play can protect the ball?