NFL Power Poll, Week 2

October 16, 2006. Monday Night Football featuring the 5-0 Chicago Bears and the 1-4 Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are on a 4-game losing streak. They're hapless. Chicago is rolling. They finally have the threat of a passing game as Rex Grossman is staying healthy and giving them that extra dimension to go with their running game and defense. Everything points to a Bears blowout.

But Arizona doesn't feel that way. They saw this Bears team back in week 3 of the preseason, and they beat the Bears 23-16. More importantly, they led 20-6 when the starters started coming out of the game, and Grossman had 0 TDs and a pick in that game.

And, wouldn't you know it, Arizona's right. They pressure Grossman all night. He fumbles twice, losing both. He throws four interceptions. The Cardinals jump out to a 20-0 halftime lead. They're ready to turn the NFL on its head.

Then the cracks started to show. Up 23-3 late in the 3rd quarter, their quarterback gets blindsided, fumbles, and the Bears walk it in from 3 yards out to cut the lead to 23-10. Arizona's inability to run (they averaged 1.7 yards per rush on the night) makes it harder to kill the clock. With 5 minutes to go in the game, their running back has the ball ripped out of his hands, and it's returned for another defensive touchdown. 23-17. Two minutes later the Cardinals have to punt. They kick it to Devin Hester, who returns it 83 yards for a touchdown. Bears lead 24-23. But wait, the Cardinals don't go away. They have a 41-yard field goal with 53 second left to take back the lead.

It's no good. The Bears win.

The Cardinals are steaming. They knew they could take down the Bears, and they executed their game plan perfectly. The Bears scored 3 offensive points, they scored 23. But they still lost.

Dennis Green was the head coach of that Arizona team. He knew the opportunity his team had wasted. During his press conference, he erupted: "The Bears are who we thought they were!" He knew, and his team knew, the Bears weren't as invincible as their 5-0 record indicated. Specifically, Rex Grossman wasn't a savior. He was a dynamic player, but he could be forced into mistakes. Dennis Green knew this, and he showed the league. But all anyone would see after that game was that the Bears were 6-0.

And Dennis Green was right. The Bears were a flawed team. Their defense and special teams  were outstanding, and their running game good enough to cover up their flawed quarterback. But if you could attack Rex, the Bears were vulnerable. Grossman had 3 games in that 13-3 season where he had a quarterback rating of 10 or worse, and it finally caught up to the Bears in the Super Bowl, where they were dominated by the Colts (more than the final score would indicate).

What does this have to do with the weekly power poll? As I said after week 1, we come into the season expecting certain things from each team. If we don't see that in week 1, the tendency is to overreact, and panic. In some cases, panic is warranted, we were wrong about the team heading into the season. In those cases, week 2 will likely support the conclusions drawn in week 1. In other cases, week 1 is a mere blip on the radar. In those cases, we'll see evidence in game 2 that our fear wasn't necessary.

So that's the question to pose to each team: with 2 weeks worth of evidence on tape now, who are you?

Rank (Last)	Team	Record	Who are you?
1 (1)		2-0	You are who we thought you were: You know who they are. I know who they are. Everyone knows who they are. They have their plan, and they execute it. Rushing game, defense, and just enough throwing to keep their opponents honest. Period. Go ahead, try to beat us.
2 (2)		2-0	You are who we thought you were: Very similar to the 49ers. Running game, defense (thanks to a VERY strong front 7). On paper, they have more talent on offense, but that offense needs to play a full 16 games. The difference between these two teams right now? Schedule. One of these two beat Green Bay and Detroit. The other beat Miami and Jacksonville.
3 (8)		2-0	We don't know yet: Atlanta has been a solid team in the Matt Ryan era. They have lacked two pieces on their team: an explosive offense, and a game-changing pass rush. We saw the offense against Kansas City, but not against Denver. We saw the pass rush ruin Peyton Manning's night. Does Atlanta have their missing links?
4 (6)		1-1	We don't know yet: This team was a juggernaut thanks to their offense last season. They passed the ball better than anyone else. This year, we haven't seen that. The good news is their defense looks improved. This could be a case where Green Bay is worse in the regular season, but better set up to advance deep into the playoffs.
5 (14)		2-0	You are who we thought you were: 9 turnovers in 2 games, clearly the message from last year (take care of the ball) has not sunk in. Michael Vick is still taking too many hits, and will assuredly miss time this season yet again. That all being said, they're 2-0. Last year's team didn't have this fight or resolve.
6 (4)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: High-flying offense? Eh, 23 points. New and improved Joe Flacco? Nah, 52% completion percentage. Willingness to use Ray Rice even in non-conference games? Nope, as despite gaining 6.2 yards a rush AND the Ravens being ahead for most of the game, Rice received a whopping 16 carries.
7 (3)		1-1	We don't know yet: The Patriots have been the closest thing to a sure bet for the last 2 seasons. Sure, they may be missing chunks of their team (like a defense), but they were abolsutely elite at something (passing offense), and they bludgeoned teams to death with it. That's gone, be it because of a shaky offensive line or a desire to get more balanced. If that's gone, then the Patriots will be in weekly scratch and claw fights like most every NFL team instead of riding above the fray.
8(22)		2-0	You are who we thought you were: You've just been much better at it than we expected. Great defense, good special teams, bad offensive line, terrible quarterback situation. The thing is, their defense has been good enough to cover for their terrible signal callers. In today's NFL, that's what is known as an unsustainable model. The Cardinals won't be terrible like many predicted going into the season, but they're not going far either.
9 (11)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: A terrible offensive line and an aging defense being continually bailed out by their quarterback. They will feast on the middling to bad teams on their schedule, and even steal a couple tough games along the way. But if you can go toe-to-toe with them, they don't have enough horses to finish the fight.
10 (15)		2-0	We don't know yet: For years San Diego has been an offense that rides the fine line between explosive and out-of-control. This year so far Rivers isn't a walking interception, but he's also not making as many big plays either. Can they win with Rivers consistently checking down?
11 (13)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: A good team, not a great one. If you can contain Megatron, you can slow their offense. If you can run the ball, you will score points on their defense.
12 (8)		1-1	We don't know yet: Peyton Manning looked like Peyton Manning in week 1. Then he looked like Ryan Leaf in game 2 (well at least in the first quarter). The 2012 Peyton is going to end up somewhere in the middle, but there were enough encouraging signs in week 1 to make you think playoffs, and enough discouraging signs in week 2 to make you think 7-9.
13 (7)		1-1	You are who we thought you were:  Jay Cutler is who he is. He's going to sling the ball, whether he's on his 4th touchdown of the day or his 4th interception. During his Bears years, he has lacked two important beams of support: receivers and an offensive line. The receivers have improved. But the line has not, and it still can undercut all of their other talent, and make Jay feel he has to win the game himself. And when Jay thinks that way, turnovers happen.
14 (20)		1-1	We don't know yet: The book on Seattle entering the season was stifling defense with a rookie quarterback who won't play like a rookie. The offense is every bit the work in progress it was expected to be. The defense gave up 20 points to Kevin Kolb and John Skelton in week 1, then suffocated the Cowboys in week 2.
15 (9)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: Talented, but inconsistent. Seattle laid a whooping on the Cowboys in week 2, but Dallas made plenty of mistakes to help the cause (fumbled the opening kickoff, had a punt blocked for a TD, numerous drops).
16 (10)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: Capable of amazing highs (see Super Bowl, the 2nd half of week 2 vs Tampa Bay) must maddeningly inconsistent (no running game, uneven quarterback pressure despite all that defensive line talent).
17 (12)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: Good defense (maybe better), mediocre at best offense. They hung 34 on Buffalo, but struggled to a mere 10 points against a Pittsburgh D missing James Harrison and Troy Polamalu.
18 (18)		1-1	We don't know yet: This defense got plastered by the Jets, then held down the hapless Chiefs. The offense should put up points, Buffalo believed this year would be different because of the improvements they made to their defense. As of right now, we're still in the prove it stage.
19 (17)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: A good team, will wi the games they should, but won't be knocking off any of the good-to-great teams In the league.
20 (28)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: A limited team lead by a dynamic quarterback who will make life hard for all but the truly great teams. Their win total at the end of the year may or may not impress, but they will make you work for every win against them.
21 (25)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: Unlike the recent past, they will be competitive. This is a multi-year rebuilding process, so the results will be limited here in year 1, but simply beign competitive is a huge step up for this franchise.
22 (24)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: A disciplined team who will fight through the final whistle. The end result will be very similar to Carolina, but the method is very different. Where the Panthers rely on Cam to carry them, Tampa wants to be very balanced. Run the ball, limit possessions, and fight hard on defense.
23 (21)		1-1	We don't know yet: Robert Griffin III has been more impressive that anyone expected, and the Redskins haven't seen an offense this dynamic in a long time. Unfortunately, the season-ending injuries to defenders Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo should stem even the most optimistic fans' playoff hopes.
24 (27)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: With the impressive Andrew Luck, this will be a competitive team, but they need so much help in so many areas, it will still be a long season for Colts fans.
25 (19)		0-2	We don't know yet: The defense has given up 75 points in two games. And the offense, while still potent, doesn't have the feeling of invincibility it has carried through the last few regular seasons. Brees may be pressing, or the offense may simply miss the gunslinging guiding hand of Sean Payton. Whatever the case, the Saints need to get rthe ship righted quickly before they dig too big a hole for themselves behind the Falcons.
26 (29)		1-1	You are who we thought you were: Adrian Peterson playing this much and this well this soon after his injury is a great story. But even a 100% Peterson (which won't come until next season, at best) wouldn't be enough for this team this year.
27 (16)		0-2	We don't know yet: After Romeo Crennel got the full-time job, many looked at this roster, especially all of the injured players from last year they were getting back, and predicted a strong season. Admittedly that flew in the face of Crennel's Cleveland tenure, but hey, that was Cleveland, right? Well...maybe not.
28 (31)		1-1	We don't know yet: Can Reggie Bush really carry the load for a full season? Everything we know about him says no, and in that case Ryan Tannehill will get overwhelmed pretty quickly (especially with no receivers). But there's the slightest chance we're wrong, and if that is the case, we may have to consider that the ceiling for this Miami team may reside higher than the basement.
29 (30)		0-2	You are who we thought you were: Baline Gabbert gave Jaguars nation hope in week 1. That hope died pretty quickly in week 2.
30 (26)		0-2	We don't know yet: There's more talent on this roster than their record would lead you to believe. But their season rests on the shoulders of Carson Palmer, who wasn't that great by the time he decided he wouldn't play for Cincinnati anymore. Then he sat on his couch for half a season, then struggled in Oakland. Sure, he had a full offseason for 2012, but there's still the issue of him not playing well by the end of his Cincinnati tenure. Did we overlook that too much?
31 (23)		0-2	We don't know yet: Matthew Hasselbeck is a very limited quarterback at this stage of his career. Jake Locker cost the Titans the 8th overall pick in 2011. On the surface, handing Locker the job this preseason didn't raise any eyebrows. But Locker was not a finished product entering the league, and if teams don't respect his ability to hurt them with the pass, they can focus all of their efforts against Chris Johnson, and take him out of the game.
32 (32)		0-2	You are who we thought you were: A bad team who's sole purpose is to give its fans a shred of hope before ripping it away.

Big risers, compared to last week:
1. Arizona (14 spots) - Like I said above, this model of winning isn't sustainable. You can't have a black hole at quarterback in today's NFL. But they're 2-0, and they've knocked off two good teams. They're executing their model, and that's more than most teams in the NFL can say. 
2. Philadelphia (9 spots) - The 4.5 turnovers per game is scary, but they're showing an ability to overcome adversity, which they didn't have last year. 
3. Carolina (8 spots) - This is probably a team that will ping-pong their way through the rankings over the course of the season. They'll win a couple they shouldn't, then they'll turn around and lose a couple they shouldn't. 

Biggest fallers:
1. Kansas City (11 spots) - I was willing to give them a pass for week 1, but then they laid down again in week 2. It may be time to acknowledge that we gave them too much credit coming into the season, they're not that good. 
2. Tennessee (8 spots) - I don't think anyone expected them to be good, but few (if any) expected them to be this bad. 
3. Dallas, New York Giants, New Orleans (6 spots) - Dallas looked every bit the inconsistent team we remember from seasons past, the Giants only added to the questions surrounding their running game and defense, and the Saints are still looking for their defense. 

And finally, here's the video of the Dennis Green press conference discussed above: