NFL Picks, Week 3

Home team in caps.

St. Louis (+7.5) over CHICAGO
There's a better than even chance I'm overreacting to Chicago's abysmal loss to Green Bay last week, but S. Louis has a good front seven and can also take advantage of Chicago's awful offensive line. Having brought in Cortland Finnegan at corner, they can also give Brandon Marshall a rough go of it. When Green Bay did those two things, Jay Cutler imploded with 4 interceptions. I don't think it will be that bad this week, but I don't see Chicago winning in a blowout, either.

Buffalo (-3) over SORRY, CLEVELAND
If the Browns weren't missing their best cornerback, I could see them pulling off the home upset. But with Haden out, Fitzpatrick will be able to move the ball through the air, if he needs to. And with CJ Spiller playing the way he is, he may not even need to.

DALLAS (-8) over Tampa Bay 
Looking back at the Bucs-Giants game, if Eli doesn't gift Tampa 3 picks in the first half, this game is likely not close. While Tony Romo isn't above a little game of hot potato, Dallas is also much better at covering receivers than the Giants are. Add in Dallas being eager to wash off the stink of last week's butt-whooping at the hands of the Seahawks, and I say they take care of business at home.

New York Jets (-2.5) over MIAMI
Reggie Bush ran for 172 yards last week? That's adorable. It's also not happening again.

San Francisco (-6.5) at MINNESOTA
San Francisco is the league juggernaut. Minnesota isn't good enough to hang with a team that good.

NEW ORLEANS (-9) over Kansas City 
I have to either trust New Orleans to stop anybody long enough to win by double digits or I have to trust Kansas City to go into the Superdome and put forth a good effort for 60 minutes. I'll begrudgingly take New Orleans because of the giant advantage at quarterback and the lack of a giant disadvantage at head coach despite New Orleans being on their interim-to-the-interim head coach.

WASHINGTON (-3) over Cincinnati
Washington probably won't be able to stop anybody given the season-ending injuries their defense suffered last week against St. Louis, but Cincinnati hasn't stopped anybody all season, and one of those games was against the Brandon Weeden experiment.

Detroit (-3.5) over TENNESSEE
One the one hand, this could be the game Chris Johnson breaks out finally shows up this season. But Detroit struggles against runs right up the gut, not runs out on the edge. Johnson's specialty is runs on the edge, and Detroit has the speed to neutralize those. Without Chris Johnson having a big game, Jake Locker isn't winning this one on his own, even against the awful Lions secondary.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over Jacksonville   
Okay, I'm pretty sure neither of these teams is any good. But, not being a masochist, I haven't watched either of these teams at all, so I'm not really sure how bad each team is. Two things make me feel better about Indy: 1) The quarterback position. Andrew Luck looks like a real NFL quarterback. Blaine Gabbert does not. 2) Both of these teams played against Minnesota and Adrian Peterson, and the Colts actually did the better job keeping Peterson in check.

ARIZONA (+3.5) over Philadelphia
Both teams are 2-0, and I'm not sold on either of them. Philadelphia got here despite averaging 5 turnovers a game, and Arizona got here despite having very little ability to generate offense. But in the last couple of seasons, Arizona typically rises up at home and takes down a team they don't really have any business beating. Philadelphia seems like one of those teams. They don't play up to their potential, and now they're flying almost cross country to a place where it's harder than you think to get a win, even when the team is terrible. I may not believe that Arizona is good, but their defense is way too good to call them terrible.

Atlanta (+3) over SAN DIEGO
Atlanta has beaten Kansas City and Denver. San Diego has beaten Oakland and Tennessee. I trust Atlanta's 2-0 start a little more than I trust San Diego's, and I trust Matt Ryan to avoid turnovers more than I trust Philip Rivers.

Houston (-2) over DENVER
Which Peyton Manning will we get? The one that no-huddled Pittsburgh to death in week 1, or the one who handed Atlanta the game in the first quarter with 3 picks in week 2? An underrated story from their week 2 loss is that Denver's defense actually kept them in the game despite the 4 first quarter turnovers. But unlike Michael Turner, Arian Foster isn't washed up. As well as Denver's defense has played, they will get worn down by Houston's running game over the course of 4 quarters.

Pittsburgh (-4) over  OAKLAND
Oakland struggled running against Miami last week. I don't think that gets better this week, and I think that leads to Carson Palmer morphing into Captain Turnover.

BALTIMORE (-3) over New England
Baltimore has always been a team that relies on emotion to carry them in games. It has definitely helped them in big games over the years, but bites them in the rear when they go on the road against lesser teams and they can't get up for those games. Baltimore will absolutely get up for this game against the team that kept them from the Super Bowl back in January. Add in that Baltimore has been a terrific home team over the last couple of seasons, and I think they take down the Patriots, especially these Patriots with the identity issues and the offensive line crisis.

Green Bay (-3) over SEATTLE
Coming into this season, I figured this was a loss for Seattle. After week 1, I was sure of it. But Green Bay hasn't looked anything like the juggernaut of 2011, while Seattle made a pretty strong statement with their beatdown of the Cowboys last weekend. In the end, I think Seattle's struggles so far in the red zone will hurt them, as in the end, field goals aren't enough to put Green Bay away.

This week: 0-1
Last week: 6-8-2
Season: 12-18-2