NFL Picks, Week 4

But first, three thoughts on the Thursday Night game:

- I may have to back off Brandon Weeden a bit. After his effort that equaled a QB rating of 5.1 (out of a possible 158.3, don't ask) in week 1 spoiled a game in which Cleveland forced 5 turnovers, he's put up a couple of decent games. Not good games, but decent ones. And when you consider that he has no one to throw to (seriously, Cleveland's best receiver can't catch, which seems like an important skill for a wide receiver), and then that he's had his team one score away from winning each game, and maybe he's a keeper. Of course, he better be, considering he's 29 already.

- I was all set to scorch the Baltimore defense for allowing 16 points to Cleveland at home. I was all set to rail about how Baltimore simply doesn't get up for games against inferior opponents, which has cost them multiple home playoff games in the Harbaugh/Flacco era. But in looking closer, the Browns scored one touchdown, and kicked 3 field goals. All three field goals were 50+ yards. And the Browns were helped on those drives by penalties and special teams. Not that those are any less a part of the game, but Baltimore's defense didn't do all that poorly. They still can't get consistent pressure on the quarterback with just 4 rushers though, which should get exploited by the better teams they face.

- What to say about Joe Flacco? He threw for 356 yards, averaged over 7 yards per attempt, and led the Ravens to another win (they're 3-1 now on the season). On the other hand, he threw a terrible interception in the red zone, and only led his team to 23 points against Cleveland. People (Joe himself included) keep trying to make a case to put Flacco up there with the elite QBs in the league, and I just don't see it yet. He's more consistent now than he has been, but he's still too inconsistent to be ranked as a top quarterback in this league.

As always, home team is in CAPS.

ATLANTA (-7) over Carolina 
Be it by pressuring Cam Newton into mistakes or simply blowing the Panthers defense off the field, Atlanta should win this one going away.

New England (-4) over BUFFALO
If we see the same offense as last week, Buffalo won't keep up. And when I say the same offense I don't mean 30 points, I mean the one that runs through Tom Brady, not Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead.

Minnesota (+4.5) over DETROIT
Detroit has had trouble stopping the run (see the San Francisco game). That's the only game they've struggled in, but the other two games were against Stephen Jackson and the artist formerly known as Chris Johnson (sorry fantasy football owners). Minnesota ran 41 times against the 49ers defense, with Ponder making enough plays through the air too. Detroit has to get out to an early lead or they're in trouble. Both of these pass defenses are terrible, but only Matt Stafford comes into this game with an injured hip.

KANSAS CITY (+1) over San Diego 
San Diego has beaten up on the dregs of the league (Oakland and Tennessee). Kansas City has only beaten still winless New Orleans. Jamaal Charles seemed to get untracked last week, and Rivers turned back into Captain Turnover.

Seattle (-3) over ST. LOUIS
I'm worried about a big letdown game here. Short week, early road game that feels like a 10AM start to a Pacific coast team, and its a divisional game. Add in the poor offensive showing and there are a lot of reasons to pick St. Louis. But then I try to see Sam Bradford moving the ball against this defense and I just don't see it happening. Seahawks win a low scoring one.

San Francisco (-4) over NEW YORK JETS
The game the 49ers defense plays (+2.5) over the game the Jets defense talks
I'm sticking with the 49ers as a legit power and chalking the Minnesota game up to a blip on the radar. It's either than or buy into Mark Sanchez putting the team on his back against a good defense.

HOUSTON (-12) over Tennessee 
Jake Locker put up a good performance last week, but now he faces a real defense. The only question is if Houston will shut their offense down so early that they leave the door open for a garbage time score to bring Tennessee back within 10.

Cincinnati (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Cincy's defense worries me. Blaine Gabbert worries me more.

ARIZONA (-5.5) over Miami 
This one feels like a letdown game as well, as Arizona has been getting praised all week for their 3-0 start with lowly Miami coming into town. But Ryan Tannehill isn't going to get it done against this defense.

DENVER (-7) over Oakland
I picked against Oakland last week in Oakland because I hadn't yet realized that the Steelers defense is not as good as everyone assumes they will be, especially with Harrison and Polamalu out. Denver's defense has actually looked good in 2012, and the game is in Denver.

GREEN BAY (-7.5) New Orleans
The Seattle Seahawks may have done two teams a favor. First, they injure John Skelton in week 1. Kevin Kolb comes in, leads the winning touchdown drive, and continues to steward the Cardinals to 3-0. Then they beat the Packers on a last-second play that ignites a firestorm throughout social and regular media (though, if you look here, maybe it's all a bit overstated). Could that be the kick in the ass the Packers need to finally get going this season? Aaron Rodgers has certainly seemed angry enougn all week to go all Hulk on us. Add in New Orelans' lack of a defense, and perhaps it's the perfect storm.

TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over Washington
Washington cant stop anyone. Really, that's what it comes down to. Griffin will get his points, and it will not be enough.

New York Giants (+1.5) over PHILADELPHIA
If we go by what we've seen so far, Eli Manning will look shaky for a quarter, Philly will turn the ball over, the running game will look terrible with Ahmad Bradshaw and good with Andre Brown, Philly will turn the ball over, Hakeem Nicks will either spend the game in the hospital or go off for 150+ yards, Philly will turn the ball over, the defensive line will spend half the game twiddling its thumbs and half the game destroying Mike Vick, and (of course) Philly will turn the ball over.

DALLAS (-3.5) over Chicago
It's hard to trust either of these teams, especially with both quarterbacks' penchant for going bad Favre on us. Well I guess that's a bad comparison for Cutler, as he looks like he's having anything but fun out there. But I don't have any evidence to make me believe that Chicago will have any combination of scheme and talent to slow down the Dallas pass rush.


This week: 0-1
Last week: 5-10-1
Season: 17-28-3