NFL Picks, Week 1

As always, the home team is in CAPS.

CHICAGO (-10) over Indianapolis
I believe in Andrew Luck. I believe in Reggie Wayne and Colby Fleener. I believe that Austin Collie should be saved from himself with all the concussions he's had already. I believe that this defense will get shredded by the Cutler, Forte, and Marshall show. I believe that rookie quarterbacks can succeed (I'm a Seahawks fan, so I have to believe that) if the team around them is good enough. I believe that teams who just picked #1 overall are not good enough.

Philadelphia (-9) over CLEVELAND
Michael Vick plays the whole game (-3) over Michael Vick leaves the game with an injury
Cleveland actually has a decent defense (including a good secondary) and a good offensive line. They drafted a top-flight running back. These are the makings of good decisions and surrounding a young quarterback with talent. But, it's still Cleveland, so the top cornerback is facing a drug suspension, the running back is probably limited to 10 carries at best on Sunday due to knee issues, the "young" quarterback is a 28-year-old rookie fresh out of s spread offense, and he has no receivers to throw to. No, his receivers aren't injured, they're just terrible.

New England (-5.5) over TENNESSEE
 I miss the days when I could just say, (effectively) rookie quarterback against Bill Belichick? Please. See how nice, neat, and concise that is? Beautiful. Then the Mark Sanchez era happened. Yes, yes, I realize Sanchez isn't a good quarterback. Jets fans even realize this. But Sanchez led his team to victories 3 times in 5 tries in his first 2 years in the league against Belichick and the Patriots. That all being said, Tennessee isn't really a team that does anything well. They simply don't do much at a below average level. When you get 4 games against Curtis Painter/Dan Orlovsky and Blaine Gabbert, that lends itself to 9-7 seasons. When you face a team that is elite on one side of the ball, that results in losses. That took much longer to write. Damn you Marck Sanchez!

KANSAS CITY (+3) over Atlanta
Every year there's a road favorite that looks like a good bet, and at the end of the game you're staring at your betting slip wondering what the heck happened. This seems like that game to me.

Jacksonville (+3.5) over MINNESOTA
Yeah, I think Jacksonville's more likely to be the team that eventually moves to Los Angeles. What? This is an actual game? Yeesh.
MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Jacksonville
Both teams are based around superb running backs...and not much else. Minnesota's running back tore his ACL at the end of last season, but will play Sunday. Jacksonville's running back held out all offseason and will start as the team's third down back in this game. Take the under, do NOT watch this game under any circumstances, and I'll give the win to the home team.

NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) over Washington
If this were in Washington, I'd be sorely tempted to pick the Redskins here. I could see Shanahan reaching into his merry-go-round of running backs, pounding the ball at the Saints defense, keeping things close, and giving RGIII a chance to win the game in the 4th quarter. But in the dome? It will be too much for a QB making his first NFL start. The Redskins aren't as talent-dry as the Colts, but there also aren't many teams that can hang with the Saints in the dome.

Buffalo (+3) over NEW YORK JETS
I was surprised when I saw this line. Buffalo has been a fairly consistent pick to make a leap to contend for a playoff spot, and all anyone wants to talk about for the Jets is all the touchdown they scored in the preseason. I think people are very close to overrating Buffalo, but I also think the Jets' offensive problems are real.

DETROIT (-7.5) over St. Louis
I'm sure Jeff Fisher will attempt to run the ball a lot, protect Sam Bradford at all costs, and slow this game down to keep the Detroit offense off the field. The thing is, I'm not sold on St. Louis' ability to shut down the Detroit passing game when Detroit does get on the field. The Rams were atrocious in the secondary last season, partly because they were down to their 10th and 11th cornerbacks by the end, but partly because their starters weren't very good. Against Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford? That won't get it done.

HOUSTON (-12) over Miami
Remember what I said about surrounding your young quarterback with a good team to give him a chance to succeed in the paragraph about the Cleveland game? This offseason Miami traded their head case/only good WR, traded their best cornerback, left Reggie Bush as their starting RB, and brought in Chad Johnson for more than 0 days. On the scale of 1 to good decisions, their offseason rates a 0.7.

GREEN BAY (-4.5) over San Francisco
The 49ers-Saints playoff game last season is a great reason NOT to pick the Packers. The 49ers held down the Saints with a very good pass rush, and Alex Smith made plays when he had to. I think Aaron Rodgers' mobility makes a big difference here. Where Brees wants to be in the pocket, Rodgers is perfectly happy to roll out and make a play that way. I don't see San Francisco holding down the Packers offense, and I don't see Alex Smith hanging with Rodgers in a shootout, last year's Saints game be damned.

Seattle (-2.5) over ARIZONA
I have said this a couple of times now, but I am buying into this Seattle Seahawk defense. And every time I watch this video

I get excited for the Russell Wilson era...then I remember I'm getting excited about Jon Gruden raving about a player, and I get a little less excited, since I don't think Jon's met a player he doesn't think can be a pro-bowler. But with Arizona starting John Skelton against what should be a top-tier defense, I'm not expecting Russell Wilson to have to do too much to win this one, even though I think he's capable of lifting a team to a few wins this season.

TAMPA BAY (+2.5) over Carolina
This just feels like one of those openers where a coach who's big on discipline has just replaced a coach who  was a players coach but lost his team. The new guy comes in, busts some heads, and in the opener, his team plays steady football and puts up more of a fight than the opponent expects. Even though you think the other guy is better, somehow at the end of the game you're looking at the stat sheet and not only did the underdog win, but he outplayed the other guy.


DENVER (-1.5) over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh's defense is banged up, their starting free safety cannot play in Denver's altitude, and Peyton Manning is ready to go. Unless the Steelers conjure a running game out of Todd Haley's potty mouth before Sunday, Roethlisberger is going to have to throw all over Mile High behind his terrible offensive line to have a chance. And Denver has a couple of pass rushers licking their chops at that scenario.

BALTIMORE (-6.5) over Cincinnati
While I'm not buying the "the no-huddle offense will really unleash Joe Flacco this year" story, I have Baltimore winning this game. While Art Modell deserves the hate from Cleveland for stealing their team away, Baltimore loves him for bringing them one. And Ray Lewis seemed to have a bond with Modell, too. With a team that can be so dependent on emotion (sometimes to their detriment), I think it makes a difference for them on Monday night.

OAKLAND (-1) over San Diego 

While Darren McFadden is injury prone, I feel pretty good about him making it through the first game of the season without incident. And honestly, Oakland's skill position players are better than San Diego's, especially with Matthews out. And while I'm not totally buying the Carson Palmer-was-just-rusty-last-year line of bull optimism coming out of Oakland, I'm not sold on Rivers after last year either. San Diego struggled in these late MNF road openers back when they were the most talented team in the division. Now a) they're not and b) Norv Turner is still in charge.

2012 season: 0-1
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2011 Regular Season: 51-55-4 (.482)