NFL Picks: Week 1, Kickoff Classic

We're back for another (and this time, full) season of NFL picks. Quite frankly, with a season full of NFL games on Thursday nights, I'll consider this season a victory if I simply don't miss picking a game before it happens. I'll also consider that a victory because, based on last year's results, loftier goals like finishing north of .500 may be out of reach.

So with that, let's begin the 2012 NFL Picks feature:

GIANTS (-3.5) over Cowboys

Since 2004, the NFL Kickoff Classic has featured the defending Super Bowl Champion playing a home game to open the season. (The Kickoff Classic actually started in 2002, but the defending champion wasn't a part of it until 2004.) The defending champion has never lost in these 9 years, and only twice has the margin of victory been less than the 3.5-point spread of tonight's game. 

Could the Cowboys be the team to make history? I don't see it. I think it will take a team that is secure in itself and its identity to make it happen. The Saints were such a team last year, and they missed a chance to tie at the last second in a thrilling game. Dallas is not that team, not right now. Too many new faces, too much turmoil (Jason Witten's spleen and Dez Bryant's everything say hi, among others), and too many bad recent memories of Eli Manning carving them up.

2012 season: 1st pick
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2011 Regular Season: 51-55-4 (.482)