Week 1 was pretty bad. As I said in my power poll post, week 1 tends to take many of your expectations and attempt to turn them on their heads. In some cases, this is legitimate, and the sooner you adjust the prism you view a team through, the better off you will be. In other cases, you're falling victim to small sample size bias, and you're better off staying the course with what you believed before week 1. Tonight's game is a great test case.
I believed the Packers were the 15-1 juggernaut from the 2011 regular season...and then San Francisco (a team I expected to regress) dominated them in Green Bay. In doing so it reinforced the flaws the Giants exposed in Green Bay's only playoff game last year (also in Green Bay).
I also believed that the Chicago Bears would make a strong playoff push as long as Jay Cutler remained healthy. Their week 1 blowout win over the Colts doesn't tell us much, but it did confirm that Jay Cutler can make some very nice music when he's given actual NFL receivers.
The 49er game plan (sit back in coverage and ignore the Green Bay running game) is one that I expect the Bears to copy. And while Chicago isn't as talented on defense as the 49ers, they're no slouches on that side of the ball. Also favoring the Bears is their improvement at the receiver position. Green Bay's secondary could bully Devin Hester and Johnny Knox off their routes, but Brandon Marshall (and, to a lesser extent Alshon Jeffery) will be much harder to impede. Unless Green Bay jumps out to a quick lead and forces the Bears to play catchup, thereby putting extra pressure on Chicago's weak offensive line, I think Chicago has a terrific chance to steal a game in Lambeau and really make Packers Nation nervous.
Chicago (+4.5) over GREEN BAY
Enjoy the game tonight!
Last week: 6-10 (.375)
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