Friday, December 28, 2012

NFL Picks, Week 17

ATLANTA (-3.5) over Tampa Bay
Even with Atlanta resting players for long stretches of this game. Yes, I'm officially down on the Buccaneers. That 41-0 stinkbomb two weeks ago against the Saints follwed by a lackluster 15 point loss to the Rams at home? I'm not trusting the Bucs again this season.

BUFFALO (-3.5) over New York Jets
Buffalo is ending a horribly disappointing season, and the Jets are back to starting Mark Sanchez because they hate Tim Tebow Greg McElroy suffered a concussion last week. Add in that Buffalo is at home...nah, that doesn't matter. Buffalo isn't starting Sanchez so I'm picking Buffalo.

CINCINNATI (-2.5) over Baltimore
I'm picking the team that's playing better right now, and it isn't the team with the better record coming into this game.

Chicago (-3) over DETROIT
Detroit is playing absolutely terrible football. Add in Chicago needs this game to have any hope at the playoffs, and I can't see the Lions spoiling things for the Bears.

TENNESSEE (-4) over Jacksonville
In games where neither team has anything to play for, I need a good reason to pick against the home team. Jacksonville doesn't possess anything approaching a good reason.

Houston (-7) over INDIANAPOLIS
I'm cringing as I go against Chuckstrong, but Indy really doesn't have the horses to beat the Texans. If the Texans lose this game, they're one and done. Too much bad juju and bad play for them to bounce back in a week. But a win and a bye to reset themselves? That could be exactly what they need.

NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Carolina
Each team is playing well these last 2-3 weeks. New Orleans has done it against better competition, plus they're at home, so the Saints are the pick.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7.5) over Philadelphia
The Giants have looked really bad lately, but the Eagles are really bad. It won't be enough to get into the playoffs, but it will avoid one of the worst endings to a season for a defending champion.

PITTSBURGH (-6) over Cleveland
Cleveland is starting Thad Lewis at quarterback. Trent Richardson will not play either. And the game is in Pittsburgh in a game that means nothing. Of course, you all stopped reading after the first sentence.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Oakland
It isn't because I suddenly believe in San Diego. Oakland's just that bad.

Arizona (+16.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 
Trying to balance an angry San Francisco team looking to take out last week's embarassment on a hopelessly overmatched Arizona offense with the likelihood that San Francisco doesn't need to score 17 points to win comfortably. Arizona's defense is still very good. San Francisco won't take many chances, because they won't have to to win.

SEATTLE (-11) over St. Louis
I'm buying in. They won't put up a fiftyburger on the Rams, but they will win comfortably.

Green Bay (-3) over MINNESOTA
Aaron Rodgers' offense is faster than Adrian Peterson's offense. Minnesota's D isn't keeping a lid on the Packers, and All Day simply won't be able to keep up while dragging the other 10 offensive players behind him.

Miami (+10) over NEW ENGLAND 
Miami almost always plays the Patriots tough. I don't see that trend changing here.

DENVER (-16) over Kansas City
Peyton Manning will put up more than the 17 points he put up last time. Getting a few short fields from his defense will help in that regard.

WASHINGTON (-3) over Dallas
I trust Robert Griffin III and the Redskins to deliver more than I do the Cowboys around Tony Romo.


Midweek Season record: 7-8-2 (.471)
Last week: 11-4-1 (.719)
Season: 106-125-9 (.460)

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