Super Bowl Preview Pieces:
Rushing Offense
Rushing Defense
Passing Offense
Passing Defense
A House Divided
New England (-1) vs Seattle (O/U: 47.5)
Team
|
New England
|
Seattle
|
|||
Reg.
Season
|
Rank
|
Reg.
Season
|
Rank
|
||
Efficiency Statistics
|
Total
|
8.95
|
11
|
87.29
|
1
|
Rush YPC
|
3.9
|
22
|
5.3
|
1
|
|
Def YPC
|
4.0
|
8
|
3.4
|
2
|
|
Pass YPA
|
7.1
|
20
|
7.7
|
6
|
|
Def YPA
|
6.7
|
14
|
5.9
|
2
|
|
Total
|
0.3
|
17
|
3.7
|
1
|
|
Takeaways
|
25
|
14
|
24
|
20
|
|
Giveaways
|
13
|
1
|
14
|
3
|
|
Big Plays For
|
68
|
20
|
110
|
1
|
|
Big Plays Vs
|
80
|
19
|
44
|
1
|
|
Differential
|
0
|
14
|
76
|
1
|
|
Points Scored
|
2.59
|
3
|
2.25
|
8
|
|
Points Allowed
|
1.72
|
9
|
1.49
|
2
|
|
Differential
|
0.87
|
2
|
0.76
|
3
|
|
3rd Down/ Red Zone
|
3rd Down For
|
44.14%
|
7
|
42.45%
|
11
|
3rd Down Against
|
40.19%
|
16
|
37.13%
|
8
|
|
Red Zone For
|
58.21%
|
9
|
51.67%
|
20
|
|
Red Zone Against
|
47.83%
|
7
|
59.46%
|
26
|
|
DVOA
|
Offense
|
13.60%
|
6
|
16.70%
|
5
|
Defense
|
-3.40%
|
11
|
-16.30%
|
1
|
|
Special Teams
|
5.50%
|
5
|
-1.70%
|
19
|
|
Total
|
22.40%
|
4
|
31.30%
|
1
|
|
Weighted Total
|
31.40%
|
2
|
32.80%
|
1
|
|
I've looked at what the numbers say about both teams' offenses and defenses from both a rushing and passing perspective. You can see those thoughts at the links above. Now let's pull it all together and make the last pick of the season.
New England's Offense vs Seattle's Defense
The Patriots were 3rd in the NFL in points per drive during the regular season, and 9th in red zone offense (scoring touchdowns instead of field goals when reaching the red zone). This means they frequently put good drives together, and when they got close to the end zone, they got there instead of settling for field goals. At the same time, the Patriots offense was 20th in the league in offensive big plays (10+ yard runs, 25+ yard passes). This tells us that the Patriots achieved their points with long, sustained drives. Their 3rd down conversion percentage (7th in the NFL) confirms this.
Switching to Seattle's defense, the Seahawks were 2nd in the NFL in point per drive allowed despite being 26th in red zone defense. They were also best in the league at not giving up big plays, and 8th in the NFL in 3rd down percentage allowed.
The Patriots offense's success is likely predicated on two players: LeGarrette Blount and Rob Gronkowski. One of those two definitely needs to get untracked early if New England's offense is going to be consistently successful. If Blount can gash Seattle for 4-6 yards on the ground somewhat consistently, or Gronkowski gets free down the seam a couple times, Seattle will have to adjust, and that's where the Edelmans or Amendolas will find success. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels can get them some plays through scheme or misdirection, but New England's receivers are not going to win their matchups consistently unless Seattle's defense springs a leak or two elsewhere.
In the end, I do not see New England's offense being consistently successful against the Seahawks. Not against this defense. If Aaron Rodgers couldn't do better than 5.7 ypa in 3 matchups with this defense in 3 years despite a better arm and better weapons than New England has, I don't see Tom Brady as the quarterback to break this defense down.
Seattle's Offense versus New England's Defense
This is the matchup that concerns me. Last year I was very confident heading into the Super Bowl matchup because I just didn't see how Denver's defense was going to stop Seattle's offense. New England's 2014 defense is much better than Denver's 2013 defense was. But the numbers don't quite match the names with the Patriots defense.
Seattle's rushing offense needs no introduction. They're the best in the league at what they do by yards, ypc, and 10+ yard rushes. Their passing offense is less dangerous. They threw the ball less than any team in the NFL and so were juts 26th in yards, but were 6th in yards per attempt. However, Seattle's passing game suffered a significant injury 3 weeks ago when rookie Paul Richardson tore up his knee. Richardson was their burner, a threat the safeties had to keep an eye on, and he was rapidly becoming Russell Wilson's second-favorite receiver by the end of the regular season. Without Richardson, there's Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, who can hurt you, and a few other guys who are pretty limited. Seattle's tight ends (Luke Willson, Cooper Helfet, and Tony Moeaki) are pretty decent receiving options, but only Willson is likely to hurt the opposition, thanks to his speed. When you consider that Darrelle Revis is likely to erase one of these receiving options (likely Baldwin) all game, it's hard to like Seattle's chances throwing the ball.
The Patriots have a top-10 rushing defense (by yards and ypc) and just outside a top-10 passing defense (also by yards and ypa). But New England's defense has a leak: they were 28th in the NFL at giving up 25+ yard passes, and 20th at giving up big plays in general. That's a problem against Seattle, who were tops in the NFL at generating big plays on offense. Why is it that, with all that talent in the secondary, the Patriots struggle this way?
I believe the problem is New England's pass rush. Namely that, too often, it doesn't exist. And if that trend continues against Seattle's admittedly below-average offensive line, Seattle's receivers will get open for some deep shots, and Russell Wilson will buy enough time to hit them.
I don't believe Seattle's offense will be consistent, but I do believe they will get their share of chunk plays, which will allow Marshawn to get 20+ touches. Because when Seattle gets chunk plays, they can give Lynch more carries. When Lynch gets more carries, the defense wears down. And when the defense wears down, Lynch and Wilson gash them for big plays on the ground.
New England's biggest advantages in this game are special teams and the coaching matchup. The Patriots have one of the best punt returners in the game in Julian Edelman, though Seattle's punt coverage team is also top-notch. The real issue for Seattle is their returns. Bryan Walters is fine as a punt returner (he's no threat for a big return but he'll consistently get a few yards per return, but their kick returns are a mess. If a team is going to flip the field on special teams, it will be the Patriots.
And when it comes to the coaching matchup, there isn't a coach in the league I trust to win that matchup with Bill Belichick. His staff grabbed an extra 14 points against the Ravens in the divisional round between the eligible/ineligible formational scheme and the Edelman pass, in a game the Patriots won by 4. In a game that should be close, either one of these matchups could very well swing the game.
But I don't believe they will. To finish out, let's play one last game of I Believe:
I believe that the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL this season.
I believe that the Seahawks defense will do to Tom Brady what they have done to every Super Bowl winning quarterback they have played.
I believe that New England will focus on containing Russell Wilson over Marshawn Lynch, and that it will work for most of the first half.
I believe that Seattle's defense will hold the Patriots offense enough to keep the game manageable as their offense starts slow yet again.
I believe that Seattle is going to start hitting on big plays towards the end of the first half, and will continue to hit on them in the second half.
I believe that New England will abandon the run by the start of the 4th quarter as they will have little to no success running in the second half.
I believe the Patriots will have the lead at halftime.
I believe Seattle will take the lead in the 3rd quarter.
I believe we will see Marshawn Lynch score to put the Seahawks up by 2 scores in the 4th quarter.
I believe the Patriots will drive for a late score to pull the game back within one score.
I believe Seattle will then run out the clock.
I believe Marshawn Lynch will be the MVP
The Pick: Seattle 27, New England 23 (Seahawks +1 and the Under)
Miles' Pick:
Enjoy the game, everyone!
Championship Picks: 1-1
Championship Picks (Miles): 1-1
2014 Postseason: 6-4 (.600)
Miles' 2014 Postseason: 6-4 (.600)
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455)
Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.636)
2012 Postseason: 6-4-1 (.591)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2014 Season: 130-122-3 (.516)
2014 Midweek Picks: 13-5
No comments:
Post a Comment