Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Super Bowl Matchup: Passing Defenses

Super Bowl Preview Pieces:
Rushing Offense
Rushing Defense
Passing Offense

The Patriots have the more consistent passing attack, but Seattle has the more explosive one. Let's look at the pass defenses.

PASS DEFENSE

Passes
Rank
Yards
Rank
YPA
Rank
25+ Yard Pass
Rank
New England
574
24
4119
18
6.5
12
36
28
Seattle
507
1
3204
1
5.8
2
14
1

Seattle's passing defense is dominant, as their reputation would suggest. New England's defense doesn't seem to match their reputation. They have tremendous talent in their secondary, and their linebackers have drawn rave reviews this season as well, but their numbers are just middle of the pack.

PASS DEFENSE


Passing Offense: Season
Passing Offense: Matchup

Attempts
Yards
YPA
Attempts
Yards
YPA
@ Miami
595
4066
6.83
32
169
5.28
@ Minnesota
517
3566
6.90
36
163
4.53
Oakland
629
3456
5.49
34
174
5.12
@ Kansas City
493
3428
6.95
26
236
9.08
Cincinnati
503
3551
7.06
29
241
8.31
@ Buffalo
579
3856
6.66
38
268
7.05
New York Jets
498
3206
6.44
34
205
6.03
Chicago
609
4035
6.63
35
231
6.60
Denver
607
4779
7.87
57
429
7.53
@ Indianapolis
661
5062
7.66
39
303
7.77
Detroit
604
4284
7.09
46
244
5.30
@ Green Bay
536
4447
8.30
35
236
6.74
@ San Diego
574
4296
7.48
33
163
4.94
Miami
595
4066
6.83
47
308
6.55
@ New York
498
3206
6.44
27
191
7.07
Buffalo
579
3856
6.66
23
164
7.13
Baltimore
554
3986
7.19
45
292
6.49
Indianapolis
661
5062
7.66
33
126
3.82
Seattle
454
3492
7.69



Schedule Average
10746
75700
7.04
649
4143
6.38
NFL Average
17879
128898
7.21




A few interesting notes about the above numbers:
  • The Patriots were held below their opponent's average YPA-against 5 times. Those 5 games included 2 of the Patriots' 4 losses, 2 one-score wins, and the blowout win over Indianapolis. 
  • Thirteen of New England's 18 games came against teams with below-average passing attacks (by YPA). The Patriots allowed an average YPA of 6.50 in those games. 
  • In their 5 games against above-average passing attacks (by YPA), the Patriots allowed an average YPA of 6.16
  • In their 18 games, New England's passing defense allowed a worse ypa against their opponent than their opponent averaged 6 times. 


PASS DEFENSE


Passing Offense: Season
Passing Offense: Matchup

Attempts
Yards
YPA
Attempts
Yards
YPA
Green Bay
536
4447
8.30
33
175
5.30
@ San Diego
574
4296
7.48
37
276
7.46
Denver
607
4779
7.87
49
296
6.04
@ Washington
547
4461
8.16
36
275
7.64
Dallas
476
4008
8.42
32
239
7.47
@ St. Louis
515
3695
7.17
21
173
8.24
@ Carolina
545
3828
7.02
22
152
6.91
Oakland
629
3456
5.49
41
189
4.61
New York Giants
607
4470
7.36
44
270
6.14
@ Kansas City
493
3428
6.95
16
108
6.75
Arizona
568
3990
7.02
26
140
5.38
@ San Francisco
487
3407
7.00
29
100
3.45
@ Philadelphia
621
4581
7.38
20
82
4.10
San Francisco
487
3407
7.00
19
105
5.53
@ Arizona
568
3990
7.02
45
187
4.16
St. Louis
515
3695
7.17
37
203
5.49
Carolina
545
3828
7.02
36
230
6.39
Green Bay
536
4447
8.30
34
171
5.03
New England
609
4291
7.05



Schedule Average
10465
76504
7.31
577
3371
5.84
NFL Average
17879
128898
7.21




A few interesting notes about the above numbers:

  • Seattle allowed one team in 18 games to pass for a higher ypa than that team's season average: the St. Louis Rams with Austin Davis (wait...what?). 
  • Just 3 teams broke 7 ypa against Seattle, and none since St. Louis in week 7. 
  • Seattle faced below-average passing attacks in 10 of their 18 games. They allowed an average YPA of 5.69 in those games. 
  • In their 8 games against above-average passing attacks (by YPA) Seattle allowed an average YPA of 6.15. 
After looking a bit deeper, I think New England's mediocre numbers come down to a) teams get more chances to throw against the Patriots than they do the Seahawks (Seattle tends to shorten the game with their rushing attack), and New England's defense just isn't as consistent at suffocating their opponent's passing offense as Seattle's defense is (unless they're playing the Colts outside). 

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