Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Super Bowl Matchup: Passing Offenses

Super Bowl Preview Pieces:
Rushing Offense
Rushing Defense

So after looking at the rushing offenses and defenses, Seattle has the decided advantage. Now let's check out the passing game, starting with the offenses.

PASS OFFENSE

Passes
Rank
Yards
Rank
YPA
Rank
25+ Yard Pass
Rank
New England
609
7
4291
11
7.05
20
27
17
Seattle
454
32
3492
26
7.69
6
27
17

The Patriots (unsurprisingly) put up much better counting statistics in the passing game. As well they should, they threw the ball 155 times more than the Seahawks did. But when you look at efficiency, Seattle threw for more than half-a-yard more per attempt than the Patriots did. And chunk plays? These two teams finished with the exact same amount of explosive passes. 

Note: The bolded teams are the ones who defeated the Patriots/Seahawks. The Highlighted YPC numbers show where the opponent held the Patriots/Seahawks to a lower YPC than that team's average YPC given up on the season. 

PASS OFFENSE


Passing Defense: Season
Passing Defense: Matchup

Attempts
Yards
YPA
Attempts
Yards
YPA
@ Miami
537
3557
6.62
56
226
4.04
@ Minnesota
534
3572
6.69
21
142
6.76
Oakland
538
3810
7.08
37
221
5.97
@ Kansas City
545
3252
5.97
30
215
7.17
Cincinnati
608
3888
6.39
35
285
8.14
@ Buffalo
559
3292
5.89
37
346
9.35
New York Jets
538
3746
6.96
37
260
7.03
Chicago
548
4230
7.72
38
365
9.61
Denver
641
3607
5.63
53
332
6.26
@ Indianapolis
543
3669
6.76
30
257
8.57
Detroit
592
3706
6.26
53
349
6.58
@ Green Bay
564
3623
6.42
38
348
9.16
@ San Diego
524
3427
6.54
44
310
7.05
Miami
537
3557
6.62
35
287
8.20
@ New York
538
3746
6.96
35
146
4.17
Buffalo
559
3292
5.89
33
144
4.36
Baltimore
595
3979
6.69
51
408
8.00
Indianapolis
543
3669
6.76
35
220
6.29
Seattle
507
2970
5.86



Schedule Average
10550
68592
6.50
698
4861
6.96
NFL Average
17879
128898
7.21




A few interesting notes about the above numbers:
  • The Patriots were held below their opponent's average YPA-against 5 times. Those 5 games included 2 of the Patriots' 4 losses, 2 one-score wins, and the blowout win over Indianapolis. 
  • The Patriots faced just 1 team on their schedule that was below average as a pass defense. And they shredded Chicago for 9.61 YPA. 
  • In their 18 games, New England's passing offense performed worse against their opponent than the average team did just 5 times. 


PASS OFFENSE


Passing Defense: Season
Passing Defense: Matchup

Attempts
Yards
YPA
Attempts
Yards
YPA
Green Bay
564
3623
6.42
28
191
6.82
@ San Diego
524
3427
6.54
25
180
7.20
Denver
641
3607
5.63
35
255
7.29
@ Washington
519
3990
7.69
24
178
7.42
Dallas
558
4031
7.22
28
126
4.50
@ St. Louis
540
3861
7.15
36
292
8.11
@ Carolina
562
3645
6.49
32
191
5.97
Oakland
538
3810
7.08
35
177
5.06
New York Giants
522
3850
7.38
17
160
9.41
@ Kansas City
545
3252
5.97
32
168
5.25
Arizona
579
4152
7.17
22
169
7.68
@ San Francisco
551
3531
6.41
22
222
10.09
@ Philadelphia
591
4238
7.17
37
252
6.81
San Francisco
551
3531
6.41
24
138
5.75
@ Arizona
579
4152
7.17
32
329
10.28
St. Louis
540
3861
7.15
25
222
8.88
Carolina
562
3645
6.49
22
248
11.27
Green Bay
564
3623
6.42
30
203
6.77
New England
574
3837
6.68



Schedule Average
10604
71666
6.76
506
3701
7.31
NFL Average
17879
128898
7.21




A few interesting notes about the above numbers: 
  • The Seahawks were held below their opponent's average YPA-against 7 times. Those 7 games included 2 of their 4 losses, 2 one-score wins, and 3 two-score wins. 
  • The Seahawks faced just 2 teams on their schedule that were below average as a pass defense. They achieved 7.42 YPA against the Redskins and 9.41 YPA against the Giants. 
  • In their 18 games, Seattle's passing offense performed worse against their opponent than the average team did 7 times.  

Both of these teams faced a difficult slate of pass defenses. 

The takeaway here is about what you'd expect: the Patriots get theirs through the air while Seattle's passing attack is much more uneven. But even when the Patriots get theirs, they simply aren't an explosive passing offense: they cracked 8 ypa 7 times in 18 games. By contrast, when Seattle gets going they really get going. They cracked 8 ypa 6 times in 18 games, but in half of those 6 games they cracked 10 ypa. 

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