Rushing Offense
Next up let's look at the run defenses.
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RUSH DEFENSE
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Rushes
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Rank
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Yards
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Rank
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YPC
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Rank
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10+ Yard Runs
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Rank
|
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New England
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419
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12
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1669
|
9
|
4.0
|
8
|
44
|
10
|
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Seattle
|
380
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4
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1304
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3
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3.4
|
2
|
30
|
3
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The discrepancy isn't nearly as large as it was for the run offenses of these two teams. Seattle still has the advantage here, but the Patriots have an above-average run defense, as opposed to their below-average run offense.
Let's take a closer look, starting again with the Patriots.
Note: The bolded teams are the ones who defeated the Patriots/Seahawks. The Highlighted YPC numbers show where the opponent held the Patriots/Seahawks to a lower YPC than that team's average YPC given up on the season.
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RUSH DEFENSE
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Rushing Offense: Season
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Rushing Offense: Matchup
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Attempts
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Yards
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YPC
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Attempts
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Yards
|
YPC
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@ Miami
|
399
|
1872
|
4.69
|
38
|
191
|
5.03
|
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@ Minnesota
|
413
|
1804
|
4.37
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19
|
54
|
2.84
|
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Oakland
|
337
|
1240
|
3.68
|
22
|
67
|
3.05
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@ Kansas City
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420
|
1918
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4.57
|
38
|
207
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5.45
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Cincinnati
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492
|
2147
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4.36
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18
|
79
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4.39
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@ Buffalo
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402
|
1482
|
3.69
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23
|
68
|
2.96
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New York Jets
|
507
|
2280
|
4.50
|
43
|
218
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5.07
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Chicago
|
355
|
1441
|
4.06
|
26
|
153
|
5.88
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Denver
|
443
|
1785
|
4.03
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17
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43
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2.53
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@ Indianapolis
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415
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1612
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3.88
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16
|
19
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1.19
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Detroit
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396
|
1422
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3.59
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25
|
91
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3.64
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@ Green Bay
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435
|
1917
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4.41
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18
|
84
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4.67
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@ San Diego
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398
|
1367
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3.43
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17
|
53
|
3.12
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Miami
|
399
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1872
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4.69
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23
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76
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3.30
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@ New York
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507
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2280
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4.50
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32
|
116
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3.63
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Buffalo
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402
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1482
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3.69
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33
|
104
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3.15
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Baltimore
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448
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2019
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4.51
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28
|
136
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4.86
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Indianapolis
|
415
|
1612
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3.88
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19
|
83
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4.37
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Seattle
|
525
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2762
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5.26
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|
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Schedule Average
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8108
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34314
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4.23
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455
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1842
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4.05
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NFL Average
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13688
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57002
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4.16
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A few interesting notes about the above numbers:
- In 3 of the Patriots' 4 losses, their opponent's running game had a higher YPC than it did on average over the course of the season (the season finale loss to Buffalo, when the Patriots rested a significant number of starters, was the one exception).
- The Patriots played against 9 teams who had below average running games (by YPC). New England's average yards per carry against in those games was 3.32.
- In their 9 games against above-average run offenses (as defined by YPC), New England allowed an average of 4.36 ypc.
- In their 18 games, New England's run defense performed worse against their opponent than the average team did 9 times.
There is a pretty significant difference between the first half of the season Patriots run defense and the second half of the season Pats run defense. On the surface, it looks like the Pats figured things out and improved. Looking a little closer, that improvement might be iron pyrite. New England faced 5 above-average run defenses in the first half of the season, versus 5 below-average ones in the second half. Also, New England's playoff performance against the run flies in the face of a midseason "fix".
How about the Seahawks?
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RUSH DEFENSE
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Rushing Offense: Season
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Rushing Offense: Matchup
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Attempts
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Yards
|
YPC
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Attempts
|
Yards
|
YPC
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Green Bay
|
435
|
1917
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4.41
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21
|
80
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3.81
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@ San Diego
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398
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1367
|
3.43
|
37
|
101
|
2.73
|
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Denver
|
443
|
1785
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4.03
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20
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36
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1.80
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@ Washington
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401
|
1691
|
4.22
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17
|
32
|
1.88
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Dallas
|
508
|
2354
|
4.63
|
36
|
162
|
4.50
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@ St. Louis
|
395
|
1635
|
4.14
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27
|
102
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3.78
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@ Carolina
|
473
|
2036
|
4.30
|
31
|
114
|
3.68
|
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Oakland
|
337
|
1240
|
3.68
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18
|
37
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2.06
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New York Giants
|
449
|
1603
|
3.57
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17
|
54
|
3.18
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@ Kansas City
|
420
|
1918
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4.57
|
30
|
190
|
6.33
|
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Arizona
|
397
|
1308
|
3.29
|
20
|
64
|
3.20
|
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@ San Francisco
|
470
|
2176
|
4.63
|
18
|
64
|
3.56
|
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@ Philadelphia
|
474
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1992
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4.20
|
22
|
57
|
2.59
|
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San Francisco
|
470
|
2176
|
4.63
|
32
|
140
|
4.38
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@ Arizona
|
397
|
1308
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3.29
|
15
|
29
|
1.93
|
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St. Louis
|
395
|
1635
|
4.14
|
19
|
42
|
2.21
|
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Carolina
|
473
|
2036
|
4.30
|
30
|
132
|
4.40
|
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Green Bay
|
435
|
1917
|
4.41
|
30
|
135
|
4.50
|
|
New England
|
438
|
1727
|
3.94
|
|
|
|
|
Schedule Average
|
8208
|
33821
|
4.12
|
440
|
1571
|
3.57
|
|
NFL Average
|
13688
|
57002
|
4.16
|
|
|
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- In 1 of the Seahawks' 4 losses, their opponent's running game had a higher YPC than it did on average over the course of the season (this doubled as the only regular season game where an opponent had an above-average rushing attack against the Seahawks).
- The Seahawks played against 8 teams who had below average running games (by YPC). Seattle's average yards per carry against in those games was 2.61.
- In their 10 games against above-average run offenses (as defined by YPC), Seattle allowed an average of 3.96 ypc.
- In their 18 games, Seattle's run defense performed worse against their opponent than the average team did 3 times, but 2 of those 3 times were Seattle's 2 playoff games.
The main takeaway here is it is very hard to run on Seattle. And teams that don't run the ball particularly well to begin with (like, say a team that's 22nd in the league in YPC), really struggle. Then again, San Diego beat the Seahawks while rushing for just 2.73 yards per carry, so a poor returns from your rushing game doesn't preclude a team from beating Seattle.
I said in the rushing offense post that I didn't see New England bottling up Seattle's running game, and the data on the Patriots' run defense doesn't contradict that. And if Patriots fans believe their runnung game will carry over the momentum from the AFC Championship, the data says they are going to be disappointed.
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