NFL Power Poll, Wild Card Round

Rank	Team	Record	Score	Playoff Score	Super Bowl	Conference	Divisional	Wild Card
1		12-4	87.29
2		12-4	61.67
3		12-4	47.90
4		10-6	35.08	11.49				11.49
5		11-5	31.59	-5.52				-5.52
6		12-4	31.02	5.52				5.52
9		7-8-1	10.42	27.44				27.44
10		10-5-1	9.25	-18.90				-18.90
11		12-4	8.95
14		11-5	3.37	-11.49				-11.49
20		11-5	-8.74	18.90				18.90
21		11-5	-9.08	-27.44				-27.44

Wild Card Matchups: 

	Team	Arizona			Carolina
		Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game	Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game
Efficiency Statistics	Total	-9.08	21	-27.44	10.42	9	27.44
	Rush YPC	3.3	32	1.8	4.3	13	4.6
	Def YPC	4.4	25	4.6	4.5	27	1.8
	Pass YPA	7.0	21	1.8	7.0	21	6.2
	Def YPA	7.2	23	6.2	6.5	11	1.8
	Total	-1.3	29	-7.2	0.3	17	7.2
	Takeaways	25	14	3	26	10	3
	Giveaways	17	4	3	23	13	3
	Big Plays For	64	26	0	77	13	11
	Big Plays Vs	81	20	11	68	7	0
	Differential	-9	20	-11	12	10	11
	Points Scored	1.71	25	1.00	1.9	18	1.93
	Points Allowed	1.59	6	1.93	2.09	22	1.00
	Differential	0.12	14	-0.93	-0.19	22	0.93
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	40.18%	16	25.00%	41.89%	12	33.00%
	3rd Down Against	37.50%	10	33.00%	42.38%	22	25.00%
	Red Zone For	41.67%	30	66.00%	46.81%	27	66.00%
	Red Zone Against	43.90%	3	66.00%	63.04%	31	66.00%
DVOA	Offense	-9.30%	23	-75.00%	-5.00%	20	13.00%
	Defense	-5.50%	7	0.00%	-1.60%	15	-77.00%
	Special Teams	-2.20%	21	-8.00%	-5.50%	30	-2.00%
	Total	-6.00%	22	-83.00%	-8.90%	25	88.00%
	Weighted Total	-8.10%	23	-11.60%	-6.70%	21	6.30%

	Team	Baltimore			Pittsburgh
		Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game	Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game
Efficiency Statistics	Total	35.08	4	11.49	3.37	14	-11.49
	Rush YPC	4.5	6	2.0	4.1	16	3.6
	Def YPC	3.6	3	3.6	4.4	25	2.0
	Pass YPA	7.2	15	8.5	8.2	3	6.6
	Def YPA	6.7	14	6.6	7.5	29	8.5
	Total	1.4	5	0.2	0.4	15	-0.2
	Takeaways	22	22	3	21	23	1
	Giveaways	20	6	1	21	10	3
	Big Plays For	88	5	2	85	9	3
	Big Plays Vs	62	4	3	86	27	2
	Differential	28	5	1	-1	15	-1
	Points Scored	2.25	8	2.73	2.51	4	1.70
	Points Allowed	1.68	7	1.70	2.11	23	2.73
	Differential	0.57	6	1.03	0.4	9	-1.03
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	40.98%	14	36.36%	44.71%	5	31.25%
	3rd Down Against	40.27%	17	31.25%	37.57%	11	36.36%
	Red Zone For	52.38%	19	66.67%	52.73%	18	33.33%
	Red Zone Against	42.59%	2	33.33%	54.00%	18	66.67%
DVOA	Offense	9.70%	9	13.00%	22.50%	2	-21.00%
	Defense	-4.60%	8	-49.00%	11.30%	30	6.00%
	Special Teams	8.00%	2	5.00%	0.90%	12	10.00%
	Total	22.20%	5	67.00%	12.10%	8	-17.00%
	Weighted Total	23.00%	5	22.90%	14.80%	8	15.80%
	Team	Cincinnati			Indianapolis
		Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game	Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game
Efficiency Statistics	Total	9.25	10	-18.90	-8.74	20	18.90
	Rush YPC	4.4	10	5.2	3.9	22	4.6
	Def YPC	4.2	15	4.6	4.3	19	5.2
	Pass YPA	7.1	19	4.1	7.7	7	8.4
	Def YPA	6.4	8	8.4	6.8	17	4.1
	Total	0.9	8	-3.6	0.5	14	3.6
	Takeaways	26	10	1	26	10	1
	Giveaways	26	21	1	31	29	1
	Big Plays For	77	13	5	84	10	7
	Big Plays Vs	69	9	7	92	30	5
	Differential	8	11	-2	-13	21	2
	Points Scored	1.91	17	0.83	2.23	10	2.17
	Points Allowed	1.87	12	2.17	1.85	11	0.83
	Differential	0.04	17	-1.33	0.38	10	1.33
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	39.81%	18	40.00%	41.01%	13	42.86%
	3rd Down Against	36.74%	7	42.86%	33.17%	1	40.00%
	Red Zone For	57.14%	11	100.00%	55.00%	12	25.00%
	Red Zone Against	49.09%	10	25.00%	66.00%	32	100.00%
DVOA	Offense	-1.80%	18	-11.00%	-0.90%	17	12.00%
	Defense	-2.20%	14	8.00%	-2.30%	13	-18.00%
	Special Teams	4.20%	6	8.00%	3.30%	8	1.00%
	Total	4.60%	13	-11.00%	4.70%	12	31.00%
	Weighted Total	0.50%	17	-0.80%	1.80%	13	3.40%

	Team	Detroit			Dallas
		Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game	Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game
Efficiency Statistics	Total	31.59	5	-5.52	31.02	6	5.52
	Rush YPC	3.6	28	4.1	4.6	3	3.5
	Def YPC	3.2	1	3.5	4.2	15	4.1
	Pass YPA	7.1	18	7.3	8.4	1	7.8
	Def YPA	6.3	6	7.8	7.2	25	7.3
	Total	1.2	6	0.1	1.6	4	-0.1
	Takeaways	27	8	1	31	2	3
	Giveaways	20	6	3	25	20	1
	Big Plays For	65	24	4	87	7	4
	Big Plays Vs	44	1	4	70	11	4
	Differential	28	5	-2	23	8	2
	Points Scored	1.79	20	1.82	2.61	2	2.18
	Points Allowed	1.55	4	2.18	1.97	18	1.82
	Differential	0.24	13	-0.36	0.64	4	0.36
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	38.56%	23	36.36%	47.26%	2	42.86%
	3rd Down Against	37.20%	9	42.86%	43.63%	27	36.36%
	Red Zone For	53.19%	17	50.00%	64.71%	2	50.00%
	Red Zone Against	53.06%	17	50.00%	61.22%	27	50.00%
DVOA	Offense	-3.70%	19	-17.00%	17.00%	4	-3.00%
	Defense	-13.80%	3	-35.00%	4.10%	22	-2.00%
	Special Teams	-5.70%	31	-8.00%	0.90%	13	7.00%
	Total	4.40%	14	10.00%	13.80%	6	6.00%
	Weighted Total	0.90%	15	-3.20%	21.00%	6	15.70%

Things to Note:

• Arizona played an absolutely miserable game by any measure (eye test, traditional stats), but their efficiency stats were exceptionally bad. Zero explosive plays! 1.8 yards per rush AND 1.8 yards per pass! Their offense received a -75% DVOA rating! A literal dumpster fire could probably manage a -50% rating. 
• As bad as Arizona was, they scored a touchdown on 2/3 trips inside the red zone. That's right in line with what Carolina's defense gave up during the season (63.04%, good for 31st in the NFL). 
• Baltimore versus Pittsburgh was the one game where the team with fewer explosive plays won the game. 
• In every game the team with the better toxic differential won the game. 
• Pittsburgh was the 5th best team in the regular season at 3rd down efficiency (44.71%), but Baltimore held them to just 31.25%. 
• Filed under "it could have been much worse": Indianapolis was just 1/4 in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns after a regular season where they converted 55% of red zone chances (12th best)
• Detroit (28th best rushing attack in the regular season) outrushed Dallas (3rd) on both a per-cary and total yardage basis in this game. Detroit's rush defense (best in the NFL) probably had something to do with that. 

The Forumla: 

I broke down my formula into three parts: 

Part 1: Yards per play. 

Here I take each teams yards per carry (rushing) and yards per attempt (passing) numbers and subtract from them the YPC and YPA their defense allows.  The theory being that, if Team A's offense is better per play than what their opponent's offense can muster against Team A's defense, Team A should be consistently better than their opponents over a full game's worth of plays (60 to 70 per game approximately). 

Part 2: Toxic Differential
A better yards per play differential is helpful to a team's chances of winning, but just how often is an NFL team able to consistently drive down the field taking 5-8 yards at a time? You're essentially asking an NFL offense to put together 10-12 plays without more than 1-2 negative plays, be they incompletions, sacks, no-gainers, or worse: turnovers. It's doable, but it's really hard to do with any sort of consistency in a single game.

This is why coaches harp on turnovers so much. A turnover a) takes away an opponent's possession which decreases their chances of scoring more points, and b) can give your team a shorter field so you don't have to put together an 80+ yard drive to get points of your own. The problem with turnovers is you can't count on them. So much of what goes into a turnover is dependent on a) the other team and b) luck that relying on turnovers is a dangerous proposition.

So yes, turnovers are important. But there's something else that can make getting points in a drive much easier: big plays. If my offense can get 20 or 30 yards in a single play, that cuts out 4-6 plays of grinding, or 4-6 plays where something could go wrong. Now my offense only has to put 5-6 plays together on a drive where they also get a chunk play.

Brian Billick is credited with coming up with the toxic differential statistic. This adds your takeaways and big plays generated by your offense and subtracts your giveaways and the big plays given up by your defense. Again, the theory goes that teams with a better toxic differential will be better at turning drives into points and games into wins. Pete Carroll also bases his offensive and defensive identity around turnovers and big plays being the most important indicators for both sides of the ball.

Note: For this formula, a big play is considered a rushing play of 10+ yards or a passing play of 25+ yards.

Part 3: Points Per Drive
What's the most important job of an NFL team? Score more points than your opponent. Rather than look simple points per game differential, I wanted to dig a little deeper and normalize the data a little further. Game-to-game the number of possessions can vary based on team tempo, weather coniditons, etc. So instead I looked at points per drive data for each team's offense and defense, and multiplied the difference by 10. Why 10? A typical NFL game has 12 possessions, but 1-2 of those come at a point where a team isn't really interested in scoring (maybe they get the ball with 12 seconds to go before halftime, or they get it with 3 minutes to go in the game up 14+ points already. 10 seemed like a good number of possessions per game where the end goal is to score points.