NFL Picks, Divisional Round

Baltimore at NEW ENGLAND (-7)

	Team	Baltimore		New England
		Reg. Season	Rank	Reg. Season	Rank
Efficiency Statistics	Total	35.08	4	8.95	11
	Rush YPC	4.5	6	3.9	22
	Def YPC	3.6	3	4.0	8
	Pass YPA	7.2	15	7.1	20
	Def YPA	6.7	14	6.7	14
	Total	1.4	5	0.3	17
	Takeaways	22	22	25	14
	Giveaways	20	6	13	1
	Big Plays For	88	5	68	20
	Big Plays Vs	62	4	80	19
	Differential	28	5	0	14
	Points Scored	2.25	8	2.59	3
	Points Allowed	1.68	7	1.72	9
	Differential	0.57	6	0.87	2
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	40.98%	14	44.14%	7
	3rd Down Against	40.27%	17	40.19%	16
	Red Zone For	52.38%	19	58.21%	9
	Red Zone Against	42.59%	2	47.83%	7
DVOA	Offense	9.70%	9	13.60%	6
	Defense	-4.60%	8	-3.40%	11
	Special Teams	8.00%	2	5.50%	5
	Total	22.20%	5	22.40%	4
	Weighted Total	23.00%	5	31.40%	2

The Patriots have been the class of the AFC for about half the season now, but their efficiency numbers have never followed suit. Their numbers don't look bad (this isn't Arizona, or anything), but they've been on the fringes of the top-10 for most of the season. Why? Their offense doesn't rack up yards per play (22nd in YPC and 20th in YPA) or big plays (20th) particularly well. This isn't a big surprise: they don't have a running back who can both hit the initial hole hard AND make plays in space, their quarterback is much better at short passes than deep ones, they don't have a burner to take the top off of a defense.

The surprise, is that their defense doesn't do a particularly good job preventing big plays, either. Considering the additions Belichick made to his defense (and specifically, his secondary) this offseason, you would expect the final numbers to be better than 14th in opponent's YPA and 19th in big plays against. But you have to take into account the other part of defending the pass: rushing the passer. The Patriots don't do a particularly good job of that, which can expose the pieces of their secondary that aren't Darrelle Revis.

Baltimore, on the other hand is more loved by the efficiency stats than the traditional ones. They do a terrific job both obtaining (5th in the NFL) and limiting their opponent's (4th) splash plays. And that's before you add in all the penalty yards the Ravens get on pass interference calls off their deep shots (most in the league).

Baltimore's pass defense is, well, uneven much like the Patriots' but for entirely different reasons. The Ravens are down to Ladarius Webb and guys off the street at cornerback (And Roethlisberger was targeting Webb last weekend), but their pass rush is very good, especially their edge rushers.

If you want to boil this game down to a single matchup, it would be the Patriots offensive line against the Ravens' pass rushers. If the Ravens can get Brady off his spot and out of rhythm in the pocket, their offense should be able to get enough points to hold up their end of the bargain. If they can't, the Ravens offense probably can't put up enough points to keep up with a humming Brady-lead offense.

The pick: Patriots 27, Ravens 23 (Ravens +7)

Carolina at SEATTLE (-11)

	Team	Carolina		Seattle
		Reg. Season	Rank	Reg. Season	Rank
Efficiency Statistics	Total	10.42	9	87.29	1
	Rush YPC	4.3	13	5.3	1
	Def YPC	4.5	27	3.4	2
	Pass YPA	7.0	21	7.7	6
	Def YPA	6.5	11	5.9	2
	Total	0.3	17	3.7	1
	Takeaways	26	10	24	20
	Giveaways	23	13	14	3
	Big Plays For	77	13	110	1
	Big Plays Vs	68	7	44	1
	Differential	12	10	76	1
	Points Scored	1.9	18	2.25	8
	Points Allowed	2.09	22	1.49	2
	Differential	-0.19	22	0.76	3
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	41.89%	12	42.45%	11
	3rd Down Against	42.38%	22	37.13%	8
	Red Zone For	46.81%	27	51.67%	20
	Red Zone Against	63.04%	31	59.46%	26
DVOA	Offense	-5.00%	20	16.70%	5
	Defense	-1.60%	15	-16.30%	1
	Special Teams	-5.50%	30	-1.70%	19
	Total	-8.90%	25	31.30%	1
	Weighted Total	-6.70%	21	32.80%	1

You can read the chart above, or you can read the executive summary:
The Panthers are about as good at the Seahawks at converting 3rd downs, and they forced more takeaways this season. Everything else favors the Seahawks by a wide margin. 

I suppose you also could have read the line (Seahawks -11) and come to the same conclusion. But then all that work I put towards making a nice table would go to waste, and our relationship would get off on the wrong foot.

The backlash against the double digit spread has been the main talking point this week, especially because these teams have played each other for three straight seasons. Here are the final scores of each game:

Seattle 16, CAROLINA 12
Seattle 12, CAROLINA 7
Seattle 13, CAROLINA 9

These games have some common threads. The first one is shouting at you, because that's what words in all-caps do on the internet. All three games were played in Carolina. All were also in the first half of the season. They also featured a grand total of one offensive touchdown by the Panthers. No, not per game, across all three games.

This playoff game is in Seattle. It's usually harder to score touchdowns against this Seahawks defense in Seattle than in other parts of the country.

Also, I want to reproduce a table from earlier this week. It contains every team who made the playoffs with a .500 or worse record since 2004:

Year	Team	Record	First Playoff Game	Second Playoff Game
2004	Minnesota Vikings	8-8	Win, 31-17 over GB	Loss, 27-14 to PHI
2004	St. Louis Rams	8-8	Win, 27-20 over SEA	Loss, 47-17 to ATL
2006	New York Giants	8-8	Loss, 23-20 to PHI	N/A
2008	San Diego Chargers	8-8	Win, 23-17 over IND	Loss, 35-24 to PIT
2010	Seattle Seahawks	7-9	Win, 41-36 over NO	Loss, 35-24 to CHI
2011	Denver Broncos	8-8	Win, 29-23 over PIT	Loss, 45-15 to NE
2014	Carolina Panthers	7-8-1	Win, 27-16 over ARI	vs SEA

There have been 7 such teams since 2004 (including the only 2 teams with losing records to make the postseason). Six of these 7 teams (and both of the ones with losing records) won their first game (you had to go and ruin things Eli because of course you did). These teams (not counting Carolina this year of course) then went on you lose their second playoff game by an average of 19 points.

These teams sneak into the playoffs only to hear the chorus of boos and cries of unworthiness all week long. By the time the game rolls around, they're ready to unleash their anger, aggression, and prove to the doubters than they belong. Then they make their point...and then they have to face a (much) better team, on the road, next week.

The pick: Seahawks 23, Panthers 6 (SEAHAWKS -11)

Dallas at GREEN BAY (-5.5)

	Team	Dallas		Green Bay
		Reg. Season	Rank	Reg. Season	Rank
Efficiency Statistics	Total	31.02	6	47.90	3
	Rush YPC	4.6	3	4.4	10
	Def YPC	4.2	15	4.3	19
	Pass YPA	8.4	1	8.3	2
	Def YPA	7.2	25	6.4	10
	Total	1.6	4	2.0	3
	Takeaways	31	2	27	8
	Giveaways	25	20	13	1
	Big Plays For	87	7	101	2
	Big Plays Vs	70	11	78	17
	Differential	23	8	37	3
	Points Scored	2.61	2	2.88	1
	Points Allowed	1.97	18	1.99	19
	Differential	0.64	4	0.89	1
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	47.26%	2	47.21%	3
	3rd Down Against	43.63%	27	40.29%	18
	Red Zone For	64.71%	2	57.81%	10
	Red Zone Against	61.22%	27	56.25%	20
DVOA	Offense	17.00%	4	24.60%	1
	Defense	4.10%	22	-1.00%	16
	Special Teams	0.90%	13	-2.30%	22
	Total	13.80%	6	23.30%	3
	Weighted Total	21.00%	6	24.00%	3

To sum up this game, you have two great offenses going against one one-dimenisonal (Green Bay) defense and another staying afloat with smoke and mirrors.

You might be inclined to doubt the Cowboys running game after their unimpressive showing last week. Don't. They were facing the top rush defense in the league. The Packers' run defense, on the other hand...they're not...they're not...they're not good. Green Bay's pass defense is pretty good, but good teams that can stay balanced and run on them give the Packers lots of problems. Dallas should be able to play possession ball and put up points.

Points aren't a problem for Green Bay, especially not at home. Of course, there's a giant asterisk attached. It reads: "as long as Aaron Rodgers is playing". Normally that wouldn't be a thought, but with Rodgers having a tear in his calf that will hinder him probably for the rest of the season, it's an issue. Rodgers will play, but he will be somewhat limited (no one knows to what degree), and it's the type of injury that he could easily end up aggravating, much like he did in the last game he played.

I believe that the Cowboys will do a good job staying balanced and start off strong, maybe going up 10-14 points early. But Rodgers and the Green Bay offense will pick up as the game goes on, and Rodgers will drive his team for the go-ahead score in the 4th quarter. Then it will be up to Tony Romo to pass his team to another playoff win, and...it won't end as well as last week.

The pick: Packers 27, Cowboys 23 (Cowboys +5.5)

Indianapolis at DENVER (-7)

	Team	Indianapolis		Denver
		Reg. Season	Rank	Reg. Season	Rank
Efficiency Statistics	Total	-8.74	20	61.67	2
	Rush YPC	3.9	22	4.0	20
	Def YPC	4.3	19	3.7	4
	Pass YPA	7.7	7	7.9	5
	Def YPA	6.8	17	5.6	1
	Total	0.5	14	2.6	2
	Takeaways	26	10	25	14
	Giveaways	31	29	20	6
	Big Plays For	84	10	94	3
	Big Plays Vs	92	30	46	3
	Differential	-13	21	53	2
	Points Scored	2.23	10	2.43	5
	Points Allowed	1.85	11	1.82	10
	Differential	0.38	10	0.61	5
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	41.01%	13	44.13%	8
	3rd Down Against	33.17%	1	36.49%	5
	Red Zone For	55.00%	12	62.90%	4
	Red Zone Against	66.00%	32	57.69%	22
DVOA	Offense	-0.90%	17	19.90%	3
	Defense	-2.30%	13	-13.30%	4
	Special Teams	3.30%	8	-3.70%	27
	Total	4.70%	12	29.50%	2
	Weighted Total	1.80%	13	23.90%	4

The biggest surprise I had when compiling these tables was that the Indianapolis defense was best in the league at getting their opponents off of the field on 3rd downs (their opponents converted just one-third of their 3rd downs over the course of the season). Frankly, I have no idea how they managed that. Their defense is one cornerback (Vonte Davis) and...lots of duct tape and patches. They don't stop the run particularly well, they don't defend the pass that great, and they give up more big plays than all but two teams in the NFL. Oh, and if you get into the red zone, they roll out the red carpet for your path into the end zone (32nd in red zone defense).

I know, I know, Peyton Manning hasn't looked good in at least a month. But you have to put up some form of resistance in order to get Peyton off of his game. I'm not even sure the Colts can stop CJ Anderson, so Manning may not even have to do a whole heck of a lot.

As for the Broncos, their defense has 2 weak points: red zone defense (they're 22nd) and rush defense (20th). Unfortunately for the Colts, they (more than any remaining playoff team) are singularly ill-equipped to exploit Denver's rush defense. Partly because of Ahmad Bradshaw's injury, partly because they still gainfully employ Trent Richardson as a running back option, and partly because their offensive line isn't very good, the Colts run the ball very, very badly. Essentially, this game is all on Andrew Luck's shoulders, which has been the blueprint for 3 seasons now. That blueprint is enough to win a pretty bad division and maybe a playoff game, but when they face the top teams in the conference, they get torched. It's been true for 3 seasons and it's not going to change on Sunday.

The pick: Broncos 34, Colts 23 (BRONCOS -7)

Wild Card Picks: 2-2 (.500)
Wild Card Picks (Miles): 3-1 (.750)

2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455)Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.636)

2012 Postseason: 6-4-1 (.591)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)

2014 Season: 130-122-3 (.516)
2014 Midweek Picks: 13-5