Super Bowl Matchup: Rushing Offense

If you're like me, you've had beyond your fill of talk regarding deflated balls. There's what promises to be a spectacular game coming up on February 1, ad I thought it would be interesting to dive into the season numbers for both participants, to see if we could glean any useful information regarding the matchup.

We're going to start with rushing offense. If you've been paying attention at all to the 2014 NFL season, it won't surprise you that the Seahawks have the much stronger rushing attack (note: the numbers below are regular season only):

RUSH OFFENSE
	Rushes	Rank	Yards	Rank	YPC	Rank	10+ Yard Runs	Rank
New England	438	13	1727	18	3.9	22	41	20
Seattle	525	2	2762	1	5.3	1	83	1

The Seahawks have run the ball almost 100 extra times compared to the Patriots, have amassed over 1000 more yards, and earn almost an extra yard-and-a-half per rush. Oh, and they've doubled up the Pats when it comes to big rushing plays (10 yards or more). Other than that (and ball pressure...sorry, I tried to not succumb), not much separates these two teams. 

But is it that simple? The Patriots could have faced a murderer's row of run defenses to depress their numbers. The Patriots clearly have a running game, the 2014 Indianapolis Colts' reason for being was to prove that point. 

Let's take a look at each team's rushing performance game-by-game. We'll start with the Patriots. 

Note: The bolded teams are the ones who defeated the Patriots/Seahawks. The Highlighted YPC numbers show where the opponent held the Patriots/Seahawks to a lower YPC than that team's average YPC given up on the season. 

	RUSH OFFENSE
	Rushing Defense: Season			Rushing Defense: Matchup
	Attempts	Yards	YPC	Attempts	Yards	YPC
@ Miami	453	1937	4.28	20	89	4.45
@ Minnesota	450	1943	4.32	37	150	4.05
Oakland	481	1911	3.97	32	76	2.38
@ Kansas City	433	2036	4.70	16	75	4.69
Cincinnati	439	1861	4.24	46	220	4.78
@ Buffalo	414	1703	4.11	27	50	1.85
New York Jets	393	1489	3.79	15	63	4.20
Chicago	421	1803	4.28	32	122	3.81
Denver	349	1276	3.66	25	66	2.64
@ Indianapolis	423	1814	4.29	44	246	5.59
Detroit	350	1109	3.17	20	90	4.50
@ Green Bay	449	1919	4.27	29	130	4.48
@ San Diego	438	1986	4.53	28	87	3.11
Miami	453	1937	4.28	29	108	3.72
@ New York	393	1489	3.79	24	85	3.54
Buffalo	414	1703	4.11	25	116	4.64
Baltimore	390	1412	3.62	13	14	1.08
Indianapolis	423	1814	4.29	40	177	4.43
Seattle	380	1304	3.43
Schedule Average	7946	32446	4.08	502	1964	3.91
NFL Average	13688	57002	4.16

A few interesting notes about the above numbers:

• In the Patriots' 4 losses, their opponent performed better in limiting the Pats' YPC than they did on average over the entire season once. And the difference in the Kansas City game was a whole 0.01 yards per carry. 
• The Patriots played against 8 teams who held teams to lower than the NFL average of 4.16 ypc. New England's average yards per carry in those games was 3.10. 
• In their 10 games against below-average run defenses (as defined by YPC), New England averaged 4.32 ypc. 
• If there is something that all four of their losses have in common, as relates to New England's run offense, I didn't find it. 
• In their 18 games, New England's run game performed worse against their opponent than the average team did 10 times. 

The main takeaway here is that I wouldn't have much faith in New England's rushing attack to be much of a factor in this game. Yes, the Patriots just beat the Colts over the head with their running game, but when the Patriots play against good run defenses (something the Colts are not), they don't move the ball all that well on the ground. 

Now let's move on to the Seahawks. 

	RUSH OFFENSE
	Rushing Defense: Season			Rushing Defense: Matchup
	Attempts	Yards	YPC	Attempts	Yards	YPC
Green Bay	449	1919	4.27	37	207	5.59
@ San Diego	438	1986	4.53	13	108	8.31
Denver	349	1276	3.66	37	129	3.49
@ Washington	421	1722	4.09	36	225	6.25
Dallas	392	1650	4.21	18	80	4.44
@ St. Louis	425	1765	4.15	29	171	5.90
@ Carolina	397	1792	4.51	26	119	4.58
Oakland	481	1911	3.97	38	149	3.92
New York Giants	438	2162	4.94	45	350	7.78
@ Kansas City	433	2036	4.70	37	204	5.51
Arizona	396	1739	4.39	29	124	4.28
@ San Francisco	402	1612	4.01	34	157	4.62
@ Philadelphia	473	1771	3.74	46	188	4.09
San Francisco	402	1612	4.01	32	152	4.75
@ Arizona	396	1739	4.39	34	267	7.85
St. Louis	425	1765	4.15	34	132	3.88
Carolina	397	1792	4.51	28	100	3.57
Green Bay	449	1919	4.27	35	194	5.54
New England	419	1669	3.98
Schedule Average	7982	33837	4.24	588	3056	5.20
NFL Average	13688	57002	4.16

A few interesting notes about the above numbers:

• In the Seahawks' 4 losses, their opponent performed better in limiting Seattle's YPC than they did on average over the entire season zero times. 
• The Seahawks played against 8 teams who held teams to lower than the NFL average of 4.16 ypc. Seattle's average yards per carry in those games was 4.61. 
• In their 10 games against below-average run defenses (as defined by YPC), Seattle averaged 5.74 ypc. 
• Three of Seattle's four lowest rushing attempt totals of the season came in 3 of their 4 losses. 
• In their 18 games, Seattle's run game performed worse against their opponent than the average team did 5 times. 

After Seattle traded away Percy Harvin and stopped trying to force-feed Harvin the ball, Seattle never finished a game with fewer than 26 rushing attempts. Based on their performances over the course of the season, it seems unlikely that the Patriots will be the team to bottle up Seattle's running game.