NFL Picks, Super Bowl

If you missed it earlier today, check out my "A House Divided" piece on my wife and I rooting for opposite sides in the Super Bowl. 

Super Bowl Preview Pieces:
Rushing Offense
Rushing Defense
Passing Offense
Passing Defense
A House Divided

New England (-1) vs Seattle (O/U: 47.5)

	Team	New England		Seattle
		Reg. Season	Rank	Reg. Season	Rank
Efficiency Statistics	Total	8.95	11	87.29	1
	Rush YPC	3.9	22	5.3	1
	Def YPC	4.0	8	3.4	2
	Pass YPA	7.1	20	7.7	6
	Def YPA	6.7	14	5.9	2
	Total	0.3	17	3.7	1
	Takeaways	25	14	24	20
	Giveaways	13	1	14	3
	Big Plays For	68	20	110	1
	Big Plays Vs	80	19	44	1
	Differential	0	14	76	1
	Points Scored	2.59	3	2.25	8
	Points Allowed	1.72	9	1.49	2
	Differential	0.87	2	0.76	3
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	44.14%	7	42.45%	11
	3rd Down Against	40.19%	16	37.13%	8
	Red Zone For	58.21%	9	51.67%	20
	Red Zone Against	47.83%	7	59.46%	26
DVOA	Offense	13.60%	6	16.70%	5
	Defense	-3.40%	11	-16.30%	1
	Special Teams	5.50%	5	-1.70%	19
	Total	22.40%	4	31.30%	1
	Weighted Total	31.40%	2	32.80%	1

I've looked at what the numbers say about both teams' offenses and defenses from both a rushing and passing perspective. You can see those thoughts at the links above. Now let's pull it all together and make the last pick of the season.

New England's Offense vs Seattle's Defense
The Patriots were 3rd in the NFL in points per drive during the regular season, and 9th in red zone offense (scoring touchdowns instead of field goals when reaching the red zone). This means they frequently put good drives together, and when they got close to the end zone, they got there instead of settling for field goals. At the same time, the Patriots offense was 20th in the league in offensive big plays (10+ yard runs, 25+ yard passes). This tells us that the Patriots achieved their points with long, sustained drives. Their 3rd down conversion percentage (7th in the NFL) confirms this.

Switching to Seattle's defense, the Seahawks were 2nd in the NFL in point per drive allowed despite being 26th in red zone defense. They were also best in the league at not giving up big plays, and 8th in the NFL in 3rd down percentage allowed.

The Patriots offense's success is likely predicated on two players: LeGarrette Blount and Rob Gronkowski. One of those two definitely needs to get untracked early if New England's offense is going to be consistently successful. If Blount can gash Seattle for 4-6 yards on the ground somewhat consistently, or Gronkowski gets free down the seam a couple times, Seattle will have to adjust, and that's where the Edelmans or Amendolas will find success. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels can get them some plays through scheme or misdirection, but New England's receivers are not going to win their matchups consistently unless Seattle's defense springs a leak or two elsewhere.

In the end, I do not see New England's offense being consistently successful against the Seahawks. Not against this defense. If Aaron Rodgers couldn't do better than 5.7 ypa in 3 matchups with this defense in 3 years despite a better arm and better weapons than New England has, I don't see Tom Brady as the quarterback to break this defense down.

Seattle's Offense versus New England's Defense
This is the matchup that concerns me. Last year I was very confident heading into the Super Bowl matchup because I just didn't see how Denver's defense was going to stop Seattle's offense. New England's 2014 defense is much better than Denver's 2013 defense was. But the numbers don't quite match the names with the Patriots defense.

Seattle's rushing offense needs no introduction. They're the best in the league at what they do by yards, ypc, and 10+ yard rushes. Their passing offense is less dangerous. They threw the ball less than any team in the NFL and so were juts 26th in yards, but were 6th in yards per attempt. However, Seattle's passing game suffered a significant injury 3 weeks ago when rookie Paul Richardson tore up his knee. Richardson was their burner, a threat the safeties had to keep an eye on, and he was rapidly becoming Russell Wilson's second-favorite receiver by the end of the regular season. Without Richardson, there's Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, who can hurt you, and a few other guys who are pretty limited. Seattle's tight ends (Luke Willson, Cooper Helfet, and Tony Moeaki) are pretty decent receiving options, but only Willson is likely to hurt the opposition, thanks to his speed. When you consider that Darrelle Revis is likely to erase one of these receiving options (likely Baldwin) all game, it's hard to like Seattle's chances throwing the ball.

The Patriots have a top-10 rushing defense (by yards and ypc) and just outside a top-10 passing defense (also by yards and ypa). But New England's defense has a leak: they were 28th in the NFL at giving up 25+ yard passes, and 20th at giving up big plays in general. That's a problem against Seattle, who were tops in the NFL at generating big plays on offense. Why is it  that, with all that talent in the secondary, the Patriots struggle this way?

I believe the problem is New England's pass rush. Namely that, too often, it doesn't exist. And if that trend continues against Seattle's admittedly below-average offensive line, Seattle's receivers will get open for some deep shots, and Russell Wilson will buy enough time to hit them.

I don't believe Seattle's offense will be consistent, but I do believe they will get their share of chunk plays, which will allow Marshawn to get 20+ touches. Because when Seattle gets chunk plays, they can give Lynch more carries. When Lynch gets more carries, the defense wears down. And when the defense wears down, Lynch and Wilson gash them for big plays on the ground.

New England's biggest advantages in this game are special teams and the coaching matchup. The Patriots have one of the best punt returners in the game in Julian Edelman, though Seattle's punt coverage team is also top-notch. The real issue for Seattle is their returns. Bryan Walters is fine as a punt returner (he's no threat for a big return but he'll consistently get a few yards per return, but their kick returns are a mess. If a team is going to flip the field on special teams, it will be the Patriots.

And when it comes to the coaching matchup, there isn't a coach in the league I trust to win that matchup with Bill Belichick. His staff grabbed an extra 14 points against the Ravens in the divisional round between the eligible/ineligible formational scheme and the Edelman pass, in a game the Patriots won by 4. In a game that should be close, either one of these matchups could very well swing the game.

But I don't believe they will. To finish out, let's play one last game of I Believe:
I believe that the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL this season.
I believe that the Seahawks defense will do to Tom Brady what they have done to every Super Bowl winning quarterback they have played.
I believe that New England will focus on containing Russell Wilson over Marshawn Lynch, and that it will work for most of the first half.
I believe that Seattle's defense will hold the Patriots offense enough to keep the game manageable as their offense starts slow yet again.
I believe that Seattle is going to start hitting on big plays towards the end of the first half, and will continue to hit on them in the second half.
I believe that New England will abandon the run by the start of the 4th quarter as they will have little to no success running in the second half.
I believe the Patriots will have the lead at halftime.
I believe Seattle will take the lead in the 3rd quarter.
I believe we will see Marshawn Lynch score to put the Seahawks up by 2 scores in the 4th quarter.
I believe the Patriots will drive for a late score to pull the game back within one score.
I believe Seattle will then run out the clock.
I believe Marshawn Lynch will be the MVP

The Pick: Seattle 27, New England 23 (Seahawks +1 and the Under)

Miles' Pick: 

Enjoy the game, everyone!

Championship Picks: 1-1 
Championship Picks (Miles): 1-1
2014 Postseason: 6-4 (.600)
Miles' 2014 Postseason: 6-4 (.600)

2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455)

Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.636)

2012 Postseason: 6-4-1 (.591)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)

2014 Season: 130-122-3 (.516)
2014 Midweek Picks: 13-5

A House Divided

Coming later this evening, I wrap up my Super Bowl Preview with my official pick. 

I have been a Seahawks fan since I chose to root for the blue team watching a game when I was about 4 years old. I have lived in New England for 13 of the first 18 years of my life (My family was outside of the country for the other 5 years). I went to college in Rhode Island, and had the good fortune to meet and start dating the woman I would call my wife almost 5 years later. I could fill up an entire blog with why I am lucky to be married to Celinda, but for the purposes of this blog, I will focus on one: she is a legitimate sports fan.

When I'm watching a big game, I want to be watching it with her. Partly because she's an important part of my life, but also because she's into the game too. The picture above is from then-Qwest Field for the Patriots Seahawks game in Seattle back in 2008. The tickets to this game were her first anniversary present to me. She can speak very intelligently on the game we're watching, and it's fun to debate with her while watching because she knows her stuff cold. There have been many times she's said something while we watch a game together, and it leads me to do some research and ends up being the focus of one of my blog posts. Most sports fans want to watch the game with other knowledgeable sports fans. I'm lucky in that I don't have to go outside my family to do so.

We haven't had to deal with competing interests very often. The Patriots and Seahawks have been in opposite conferences since 2002, so they play once every 4 years and could meet in the Super Bowl. That was always an abstract thought, at least in my mind, because Seattle was infrequently good enough for me to even think about them making the Super Bowl. And while we rooted for our respective teams when they met in the regular season, out-of-conference games are lowest on the importance scale, so a loss never stung that much.

So how does this work, exactly? This isn't Red Sox/Yankees, or Patriots/Jets. We don't have any real experience rooting for competing interests in a game where there's this much at stake for both teams.

Last year, it was very easy to watch the Super Bowl together. In one corner sat my Seattle Seahawks, searching for their first championship. In the other corner sat the Denver Broncos, the team with Peyton Manning (the Patriots' biggest rival in the Brady/Belichick era), and the team that had just eliminated the Patriots in the AFC Championship game two weeks prior. Not only was her team not in the Super Bowl (freeing her up to cheer for my team), but a team she usually rooted against as a Pats fan was the opponent.

This year the improbable has come to pass. Her Patriots against my Seahawks. At stake for the Patriots is their third shot at a fourth title. Four Super Bowl wins will elevate Brady to the level of Montana if not even higher, in many minds. With Brady aging, it may be the last great chance for the Patriots of this era to get their fourth title. It would also shut up the legion of  people who bring up Brady and Belichick's zero titles since Spygate (aside: if doing this to tweak Patriots fans, okay, but if being done seriously, it's a stupid argument). At stake for the Seahawks is the ability to join a much more exclusive club. Forty-eight times a team has won the Super Bowl. Eight times has a team won the Super Bowl in back-to-back years. The Patriots of 2003 and 2004 were the last to do it.

And that's what makes it hard. If Seattle was going for their first ever title, I'd say there was significantly more at stake for me in this game than for her. If Seattle weren't in their repeat year, the reverse would be true. Not that either of us would root for the other even with different stakes, but the sting of a possible loss would be less. In truth, I won't be devastated if Seattle loses to the Patriots. I saw this team win it all last year, and they should be a factor (barring injuries) for years (I feel like I should knock on wood here). I'll even be happy for Celinda if she gets to see the Patriots hoist the trophy again. But it will feel like a missed opportunity, and that will hurt. I imagine Celinda will have similar feelings if Seattle is able to repeat.

In the end, she will root hard for the Pats, and I will root hard for the Seahawks, but we'll definitely think about the other, even in the middle of celebrating big plays for our teams. Absent a blowout, I think it will actually be fun, even if a bit weird at times.

Love you honey, but Go Hawks!

Super Bowl Matchup: Passing Defenses

Super Bowl Preview Pieces:
Rushing Offense
Rushing Defense
Passing Offense

The Patriots have the more consistent passing attack, but Seattle has the more explosive one. Let's look at the pass defenses.

PASS DEFENSE
	Passes	Rank	Yards	Rank	YPA	Rank	25+ Yard Pass	Rank
New England	574	24	4119	18	6.5	12	36	28
Seattle	507	1	3204	1	5.8	2	14	1

Seattle's passing defense is dominant, as their reputation would suggest. New England's defense doesn't seem to match their reputation. They have tremendous talent in their secondary, and their linebackers have drawn rave reviews this season as well, but their numbers are just middle of the pack.

	PASS DEFENSE
	Passing Offense: Season			Passing Offense: Matchup
	Attempts	Yards	YPA	Attempts	Yards	YPA
@ Miami	595	4066	6.83	32	169	5.28
@ Minnesota	517	3566	6.90	36	163	4.53
Oakland	629	3456	5.49	34	174	5.12
@ Kansas City	493	3428	6.95	26	236	9.08
Cincinnati	503	3551	7.06	29	241	8.31
@ Buffalo	579	3856	6.66	38	268	7.05
New York Jets	498	3206	6.44	34	205	6.03
Chicago	609	4035	6.63	35	231	6.60
Denver	607	4779	7.87	57	429	7.53
@ Indianapolis	661	5062	7.66	39	303	7.77
Detroit	604	4284	7.09	46	244	5.30
@ Green Bay	536	4447	8.30	35	236	6.74
@ San Diego	574	4296	7.48	33	163	4.94
Miami	595	4066	6.83	47	308	6.55
@ New York	498	3206	6.44	27	191	7.07
Buffalo	579	3856	6.66	23	164	7.13
Baltimore	554	3986	7.19	45	292	6.49
Indianapolis	661	5062	7.66	33	126	3.82
Seattle	454	3492	7.69
Schedule Average	10746	75700	7.04	649	4143	6.38
NFL Average	17879	128898	7.21

A few interesting notes about the above numbers:

• The Patriots were held below their opponent's average YPA-against 5 times. Those 5 games included 2 of the Patriots' 4 losses, 2 one-score wins, and the blowout win over Indianapolis. 
• Thirteen of New England's 18 games came against teams with below-average passing attacks (by YPA). The Patriots allowed an average YPA of 6.50 in those games. 
• In their 5 games against above-average passing attacks (by YPA), the Patriots allowed an average YPA of 6.16
• In their 18 games, New England's passing defense allowed a worse ypa against their opponent than their opponent averaged 6 times. 

	PASS DEFENSE
	Passing Offense: Season			Passing Offense: Matchup
	Attempts	Yards	YPA	Attempts	Yards	YPA
Green Bay	536	4447	8.30	33	175	5.30
@ San Diego	574	4296	7.48	37	276	7.46
Denver	607	4779	7.87	49	296	6.04
@ Washington	547	4461	8.16	36	275	7.64
Dallas	476	4008	8.42	32	239	7.47
@ St. Louis	515	3695	7.17	21	173	8.24
@ Carolina	545	3828	7.02	22	152	6.91
Oakland	629	3456	5.49	41	189	4.61
New York Giants	607	4470	7.36	44	270	6.14
@ Kansas City	493	3428	6.95	16	108	6.75
Arizona	568	3990	7.02	26	140	5.38
@ San Francisco	487	3407	7.00	29	100	3.45
@ Philadelphia	621	4581	7.38	20	82	4.10
San Francisco	487	3407	7.00	19	105	5.53
@ Arizona	568	3990	7.02	45	187	4.16
St. Louis	515	3695	7.17	37	203	5.49
Carolina	545	3828	7.02	36	230	6.39
Green Bay	536	4447	8.30	34	171	5.03
New England	609	4291	7.05
Schedule Average	10465	76504	7.31	577	3371	5.84
NFL Average	17879	128898	7.21

A few interesting notes about the above numbers:

• Seattle allowed one team in 18 games to pass for a higher ypa than that team's season average: the St. Louis Rams with Austin Davis (wait...what?). 
• Just 3 teams broke 7 ypa against Seattle, and none since St. Louis in week 7. 
• Seattle faced below-average passing attacks in 10 of their 18 games. They allowed an average YPA of 5.69 in those games. 
• In their 8 games against above-average passing attacks (by YPA) Seattle allowed an average YPA of 6.15. 

After looking a bit deeper, I think New England's mediocre numbers come down to a) teams get more chances to throw against the Patriots than they do the Seahawks (Seattle tends to shorten the game with their rushing attack), and New England's defense just isn't as consistent at suffocating their opponent's passing offense as Seattle's defense is (unless they're playing the Colts outside).