Please keep in mind that these rankings were created before last night's Cardinals-Rams game.
Rank
(Last)
|
Team
|
Record
|
How
Am I Doing?
|
1
(1)
|
 |
4-0
|
2nd - So far, so good. The defense is as good as
advertised, and the offense showed it can hold up its end of the bargain in
the week 3 win over Denver. What tripped them up last year was injuries to
their quarterback position, so the bubble wrap they ordered for Matt Schaub
should be coming in any day now.
|
2
(2)
|
 |
4-0
|
8th - I was skeptical of Atlanta's rumblings that they
were actually ready to open up the offense and run with the big boys this
year after only talking about doing so last year. I was wrong. The offense is
explosive, and the defense (specifically the pass rush) is more
explosive than expected too.
|
3
(3)
|
 |
3-1
|
11th - It's actually the defense that's surprised me. I expected
a substantial step back, but it hasn't been that big a drop. That's allowed
Flacco to continue being Flacco, but have this team be dangerous at the same
time.
|
4
(4)
|
 |
3-1
|
6th - I expected a regression from this team, but they basically
picked up exactly where they left off last season. Steady team that will keep
coming at you in all three phases of the game, if you blink even once, they
will take advantage.
|
5
(5)
|
 |
4-0
|
24th - My biggest mistake: Instead of looking at their 7-2 finish last year
thanks to an incredible defense, I looked at their fiasco of a quarterback
position and assumed that would doom this team. Of course, their 7-2 finish
last year was with this exact same fiasco of a quarterback position.
|
6
(7)
|
 |
2-2
|
3rd - The Patriots may have won those 2 recent Super Bowls
if they had any sort of running game those years. But the elite passing
offense is what kept them as a top team throughout that stretch. This year
the passing game hasn't looked elite yet (very good, yes, but that's still a
drop-off), and that has cost them their two losses.
|
7
(8)
|
 |
3-1
|
4th - The Dallas game perfectly encapsulates why I was so high
on Chicago heading into the season. Tough, opportunistic defense makes you
pay for mistakes, and the offense is explosive enough to force you into bad
situations against the defense, as long as they protect Jay Cutler. They
haven't done a good enough job of that overall, but the potential is
absolutely there.
|
8
(13)
|
 |
3-1
|
7th - I figured they'd have learned from their mistakes
last season (literally, last season was full of turnovers), but
|
9
(6)
|
 |
2-2
|
12th - I expected more of the inconsistent 2011 regular
season Giants than the juggernaut 2011 postseason Giants, and I think that's
exactly what we've gotten so far in 2012. Eli is still (mostly) great, but
the running game is highly questionable and the defense coasts too
much.
|
10
(12)
|
 |
2-2
|
1st - Easily the top offense of 2011 took a big hit in their
last game of 2011 and first three games of 2012. Those games came against the
juggernaut version of the Giants, the 49ers, the Bears, and the Seahawks. All
4 of those teams are terrific defenses. Against the Saints, they scored 28
points, which this season qualifies as a disappointment. I expected the
high-flying offense to not miss a beat, and they've been missing a whole lot
of them.
|
11
(11)
|
 |
2-2
|
5th - I thought Peyton Manning would be all the way back
to his 2010 self. He's clearly not. He's not hurting the team with his play
(well, except the first half of the Atlanta game) but he's not elevating them
either.
|
12
(14)
|
 |
3-1
|
16th - They've played a ridiculously easy schedule with one
exception, and that exception blew them off the field (Atlanta). I'm not
buying Rivers Turner Overdrive yet.
|
13
(15)
|
 |
3-1
|
30th - I did not see this coming at all. Christian Ponder looked like a giant reach when he was taken 12th in the 2011 draft. Right now, he certainly doesn't look overmatched.
|
14
(19)
|
 |
3-1
|
14th - Look at that, I nailed this one perfectly. Beat up on the weaklings on their schedule (CLE, WAS, JAX) and lose to the good teams (BAL). They are doing it differently than I expected. They've opened up their offense for 2nd year QB Andy Dalton, but that's been out of necessity because they aren't stopping any offense with a pulse, either.
|
15
(9)
|
 |
2-2
|
9th - The defense is about as advertised, except on third down and long, when they turn into last year's Patriots. The offense, however, has regressed considerably, which is a problem when last year's quarterback was Tarvaris freaking Jackson. Seattle needs to either change its quarterback or design a 21st century passing offense if they want to actually have a shot at the playoffs.
|
16
(10)
|
 |
2-2
|
18th - About as inconsistent as expected. Romo loves him some turnover and the defense hasn't been nearly as good as the glimpse they showed against the Giants.
|
17
(21)
|
 |
2-2
|
29th - I missed the boat on these guys. I thought Jeff Fisher would keep these guys competitive, but personnel-wise they'd simply be overmatched. I overlooked the strength of their front seven, which was undone by terrible secondary play last year. They patched that hole and now the defense looks pretty good. Add in the best kicker in the league and they are (and will) stealing some games.
|
18
(18)
|
 |
1-2
|
15th - Age and injuries are catching up fast to this defense. They haven't had as many struggles on offense as I expected, but their defense has been considerably worse.
|
19
(23)
|
 |
2-2
|
26th - Pretty simple, I underestimated two things about this team. One, Robert Griffin III's playmaking potential in the NFL. Two, Mike Shanahan's ability to tailor his offense to match the strengths of his quarterback, provided his quarterback has even a lick of talent.
|
20
(16)
|
 |
2-2
|
20th - Aside from the week 1 explosion against the paper-lion Bills defense, this team looks exactly as expected. Except now with Darrelle Revis out for the year, they'll be ready to kill to be as high as 20th in the poll by the end of the season.
|
21
(17)
|
 |
2-2
|
13th - This was my hardest team to slot in the preseason rankings. My gut was telling me to believe in the Bills finally, while my head kept asking for the last time trust in the Bills was rewarded in any way, shape, or form. My gut won out, but my head has been proven right. That on-paper new and improved defense? We're still waiting for it.
|
22
(24)
|
 |
1-3
|
31st - I underestimated Ryan Tannehill. I knew his college coach was his offensive coordinator, which would ease his transition, but I thought he was coming in too raw (similar to Jake Locker), and I didn't see much support around him.
|
23
(20)
|
 |
1-3
|
19th - The offense has taken a noticeable step back (they were so explosive last season that's not a surprise). The defense hasn't really gotten any better. But this team has been killed by its special teams coverage teams. They could easily be 3-1 if not for colossal special teams collapses.
|
24
(22)
|
 |
1-3
|
22nd - About as expected, they're a limited team that plays within itself. If you bring your A-game, you'll beat them. If you look past them, they'll steal one from you.
|
25
(28)
|
 |
1-3
|
23rd - Also about as expected. They're a much more exciting team to watch when they're on, but when they're off they are abysmal.
|
26
(25)
|
 |
1-2
|
27th - Andrew Luck looks the part of an NFL quarterback, confirming our suspicions that Colts fans are ridiculously lucky. The team looks terrible, confirming our suspicions that the Colts need a major talent infusion. Also, get well soon Chuck Pagano.
|
27
(26)
|
 |
1-3
|
28th - Blaine Gabbert got everyone's hopes up with his competent week 1 showing. It was a mirage. You cannot win in the NFL today with a black hole at quarterback.
|
28
(27)
|
 |
1-3
|
10th - My other biggest whiff. They were getting talent back from injury on offense and defense. With the exception of Jamaal Charles in the second half against New Orleans, none of this talent has played even close to expectations. The defense is bad, Matt Cassel is regressing, and Romeo Crennel may be the head coach we thought he was.
|
29
(29)
|
 |
1-3
|
25th - So many teams are so skilled at managing the salary cap now that the concept of salary cap hell is fading from so many memories. If you believed salary cap hell was a myth, just look at the Raiders right now. It's going to take years to undo the damage done there. Of course, it took about 237 wacky Al Davis decisions to get them into salary cap hell, but it IS still possible.
|
30
(31)
|
 |
0-4
|
17th - I don't think anyone saw this big a fall coming. I had them missing the playoffs and I'm still shocked by this 0-4 start.
|
31
(32)
|
 |
0-4
|
32nd - To their credit, they have been significantly more competitive than I expected. Specifically, Brandon Weeden has been much better than anticipated. I'm now all out of nice things to say about the Browns.
|
32
(30)
|
 |
1-3
|
21st - Lost amid all the fantasy owners gnashing their teeth over the Chris Johnson missing persons case, is that this team went 9-7 last season. That feels like such a long time ago right now. A step back with the move to 2nd year QB Jake Locker was expected, but this is a few giant leaps backwards.
|
Big risers, compared to last week:
1. Philadelphia, Cincinnati (5 spots) - For Philly, they finally avoided turning the ball over, which, if they can do that consistently, makes them a dangerous team. For Cincinnati, it's a little bit by default. But in a land of disappointments, a team that takes care of its business looks all that much better. 3. St. Louis, Washington (4 spots) - Two competitive, scrappy fighters that won't give an inch. They may not be playoff contenders, but they're not pushovers.
Biggest fallers:
1. Seattle, Dallas (6 spots) - Seattle's passing game and Dallas' defense have been tremendously disappointing. Parts of these teams are ready for prime time. Other parts aren't ready for 4AM infomercials.
3. New York Jets, Buffalo (4 spots) - The Jets offense and the Bills defense are the overrated units we thought they were, despite all the talk to the contrary.
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