NFL Picks, Week 5

Why I dropped to 0-5 on midweek games:
- I stand by my statement that St. Louis' win over Seattle was somewhat fluky (I don't say this to belittle the win, but to highlight that many elements of it are not repeatable). But that wasn't a good matchup for the Rams, because Seattle has a terrific running game. The Cardinals have a terrible running game.

- That terrible running game meant the Cardinals had to throw the ball to move it, and St. Louis actually defends the pass pretty well. Their front seven was good last year, but injuries and a lack of talent in the secondary (they were down to their 11th cornerback at one point) masked that. Yesterday showed what happens if the Rams get to tee off on a quarterback: pain.

- Jeff Fisher is coaching his rear end off in Missouri.

Let's try to get better, I had a fleeting shot at getting over .500 last week, let's climb that hill mountain this week. As always, home team is in CAPS.

CINCINNATI (-3.5) over Miami 
The Dolphins are better than you think, and can very easily make life difficult for the Bengals here. But in the end, the Dolphins don't have an answer for the Andy Dalton to AJ Green airshow.

Green Bay (-7) over INDIANAPOLIS
This has to be the game where the Packers offense breaks out, right? 28 points against New Orleans was fine and all, but last year's juggernaut would have put up 56 against that woeful defense. If they don't break 30 here I think it's fair to question if that offense is gone and never coming back.

Baltimore (-6) over KANSAS CITY
This smells like a giant letdown game for Baltimore. On the road, against a team that seems terrible. The only ingredient missing is a big, emotional win last week. Instead the Ravens dithered their way to a 7-point win over the Browns last Thursday. That should give them enough rest to show up for this road game.

Atlanta (-3) over WASHINGTON 
Both teams have proven they can light up the scoreboard on offense. Last year's rookie QB sensation came a yard away from handing the Falcons their first loss. This week it's this year's rookie QB sensation's turn. Unfortunately for RG3, only the Redskins have demonstrated that they are incapable of stopping anyone.

Cleveland (+8.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants have been underwhelming at home for most of the Coughlin/Eli experience. Cleveland has doggedly stayed in all but one game all season long. With the Giants' injuries at receiver, I just don't see them breaking this game wide open.

Philadelphia (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH 
I'm trusting Michael Vick and the Eagles to not turn the ball over. The Pittsburgh defense can be had, but Ben's going to put up points, so Philly will need to keep ahold of the ball to keep up.

CAROLINA (-3) over Seattle 
I have come up with a very complex and intricate algorithm for picking Seahawks games. First I ask myself the question, "Is the game being played in Seattle?" If the answer is "Yes" I pick the Seahawks. If the answer is "No" I pick the other team. This game is being played in North Carolina.

Chicago (-5) over JACKSONVILLE 
Even if Chicago's coaches did everything in their power to get Jay Cutler killed in this game (like in the Green Bay game), I'm not sure the Jaguars could do much of anything about it.

MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Tennessee
I think Tennessee used all the rabbits in their hat in their week 3 overtime win over the Lions. And without more rabbits, they're not going to get very many more wins. Unless Chris Johnson and Matt Hasselbeck can turn the clock back a few years for Sunday, that includes this week.

Denver (+6.5) over NEW ENGLAND 
This feels like a classic Manning-Brady dogfight where one guy has the ball with 3 minutes to go down by a score and the other team's fans are watching through their fingers, praying their defense rises up and gets a big stop for the first time all game.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over Buffalo
If the Patriots defense can force Ryan Fitzpatrick into 4 interceptions, the San Francisco defense should be good for 11. For the second week in a row, the 49ers will show an AFC East overrated defense what real defense actually looks like.

NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over San Diego 
Drew Brees' TD streak (EVEN) over Johnny Unitas' TD streak
This is one of those games San Diego should win. Right now, they're the better team as they play a lick of defense. I'm betting on us getting a classic, early season Rivers/Turner stinkbomb. New Orleans goes up early, riding the emotion of Brees' big night, and then the night devolves into an unwatchable comedy of errors by the Chargers.

Houston (-8) over NEW YORK JETS 
Tebow is the QB for the 2nd half (-3.5) over Sanchez is the QB for the 2nd half
The Jets defense can't keep the score low to try and win a 10-9 slug-it-out game, and their offense is incapable of winning any other type of game. As fun as it is to speculate on how much longer Sanchez can hold onto the starting job, it's not all his fault. His receivers are absolute garbage with Santonio Holmes out, and we're still waiting for Shonn Green to become an NFL-caliber running back.

Thursdsay's Game: 0-1
Last week: 6-9 (.400)
Season: 23-37-3 (.389)