Wednesday, October 17, 2012

NFL Power Poll, Week 6


Rank (Last)
Team
Record
Notes
1 (2)
6-0
As the last undefeated team standing they seem a lock for this spot. But a closer look reveals a lot of troubling signs. A 2-point win over 1-4 Carolina. A 7-point win over the 3-3 Redskins mostly without RG3. And a 3-point win over the 1-4 Raiders. On the one hand, that's a lot of winning without playing well. On the other hand, that's an awful lot of not playing well against less than stellar competition.
2 (1)
5-1
Six weeks from now we'll look back at Houston's first loss one of two ways. Either that game will signal the Packers' resurgence into the offensive powerhouse of 2011, and Houston simply played the unfortunate foil. Or this will be the game that showed how the Houston defense could be had by a quarterback who was fully on his game. The 5 quarterbacks Houston has beaten? Ryan Tannehill (in his first NFL start), Blaine Gabbert, Peyton Manning (in his third game back), Jake Locker, and Mark Sanchez. Not exactly a murderer's row.
3 (6)
4-1
The Green Bay loss doesn't look as bad after the Packers dropkicked Houston in Houston. And they may be the best combination of offensive firepower and defensive toughness in the league. I seriously considered jumping the Bears to #1 in this poll.
4 (8)
4-2
Yes, this is par for the course with the Giants. Let the Browns hang around (at home) one week, and then blow out the 49ers (on the road) the next. But why does it have to be this way? Yes, 16 games in 17 weeks is a physical and mental grind, but the Giants don't simply have a couple of off-weeks a season, they coinsistently yo-yo between looking dominant and comical.
5 (3)
4-2
There's no shame in losing to the Mr. Hyde version of the Giants. The 49ers are still a tremendous defensive unit, and right now I trust their offense more than…
6 (11)
4-2
…Seattle's. Russell Wilson's magical comeback day agianst the Patriots was tremendous, but it was also against the Patriots secondary. I fully expect Russell Wilson to have a greater NFL career than Alex Smith, but he's still a rookie about to play his 7th NFL game ever.
7 (4)
5-1
I'd have them higher, except a) They have given up over 200 yards rushing in back-to-back games, b) the defense hasn't looked that great even before the latest season-ending injuries, and c) Joe Flacco remains not elite, which means that a not-elite offense now needs to carry a defense that is falling apart.
8 (5)
3-3
The Patriots have set the bar so high for so long that this 3-3 start feels like a colossal disappointment. The teams they've lost to are a combined 13-5. But the concerns about the secondary are absolutely legitimate, as are the questions surrounding Bill Belichick's ability to find the right players or coaches to fix this issue, given that it's been a problem for a good 5 seasons.
9 (7)
4-2
Kind of a poor man's version of the San Francisco/Seattle blueprint. Rely on the running game and defense to slow the game down and keep it close. Ensure your quarterback doesn't have to do too much and doesn't turn the ball over. Unfortunately, the defense isn't good enough to hold down more dynamic offenses, and the offense is still finding its way. 
10 (15)
3-3
Welcome, 2011 Aaron Rodgers and crew, we expected you guys to arrive about 6 weeks ago, but it's nice to know you are still there.
11 (16)
3-3
Denver has fallen into a definite, and concerning pattern. Fall behind early, then turn the guns loose. Sometimes (like Monday) this ends with a magical comeback. Other times (Week 3 vs Houston, Week 5 vs New England) it ends with the Broncos falling short. It's also not a reliable strategy long term. The Broncos need to start putting 60 minutes of football together.
12 (12)
3-3
Well, the defensive coordinator who had never coached defense before last year is now not coaching defense again. Presumably he'll be better at that, whatever that is, now that "it" is not coaching defense. However, this team still has Michael Vick under center, which means the offense will keep giving the ball to the other team's defense, which will keep the Eagles as the underachieving team we know and err, love?
13 (10)
3-3
San Diego enters their bye week alongside Philadelphia with the same record, the same stink of underachievement, and the same cause for that stink: a quarterback who won't stop turning the ball over. In fact, the only thing differentiating these two teams is the lack of a Chargers defensive coordinator being scapegoated for the mess the team is in. Unfortunately for Norv Turner, he doesn't have a patsy other than himself.
14 (9)
4-2
I can't believe I'm going to write this, but I downgraded the Cardinals as much as I did partly because they will be without the services of Kevin Kolb for the forseeable future. 2012 is just full of mystery (insert Mayan calendar joke here).
15 (21)
3-3
I'm running out of nice things to say about RG3. I just hope he can stay healthy for a full season. 
16 (18)
3-3
This feels high for Miami, but I trust them over almost everyone below them to put forth a solid and consistent effort for 60 minutes. 
17 (13)
3-3
I also trust St. Louis to put forth a full 60-minute effort, but while Miami is the same team at home and on the road, St. Louis seems to lose some of its effectiveness away from their dome. 
18 (17)
2-3
It's dangerous to let emotion fuel you for a game in the NFL. It may bring you to heights you otherwise wouldn't reach, but it usually leaves you with nothing for the next week. You can't blame the Colts for rallying so hard around their sick coach, but you could see the week-after effect coming. 
19 (14)
2-3
It's so strange to think of the Steelers as one of the teams with a defense that simply cannot stop anybody when it counts. They have a similar problem as the Ravens do (the defense is fading, fast), but their offense cannot carry the load (even with a better quarterback) because the offensive line is so terrible. 
20 (25)
2-3
The Lions have heart and fight. They may not be the smartest or most efficient team, bu if you leave them an opening, they will take it. The Eagles found that out the hard way. 
21 (22)
3-3
I think it speaks volumes that the Jets had their 4th year quarterback throw the ball all of 18 times for 82 yards in their blowout win over the Colts. If Sanchez were a rookie, you wouldn't bat an eye at that. But as a 4th year guy, as someone who the Jets need to step up and take pressure off their running game and defense before they collapse under the weight of the team's expectations? Now comes the Patriots and their sieve-like secondary. If Sanchez can't have a big game this weekend, it may be time to move on to Tebow. 
22 (23)
3-3
Here's the thing, the Buffalo team we kept hearing about all offseason should have stomped all over the Cardinals. That offensive line versus this re-tooled defense? It should have been a total mismatch. But instead Buffalo barely squeaked out with a win. It just seems like a bigger win because Buffalo absolutely laid down in their 2 previous games. Well, I'm not giving extra credit for actually showing up, that's your job. 
23 (19)
3-3
Last year they took care of all of the minnows on their schedule to squeak into the playoffs. This year they're not even doing that, a disappointing regression for the team around their second-year quarterback. 
24 (20)
2-3
The talent on this roster should have them quite a few spots higher than this. But at this point, if you're expecting them to take a big moment and not shrink and wilt in front of it, well, quite frankly, why?
25 (24)
1-4
Somehow, some way, the Saints defense gave up 23 points to the bye last weekend. 
26 (26)
2-3
I think their blowout win says much much more about Kansas City than it does about Tampa Bay. 
27 (32)
2-4
While the move to Jake Locker at quarterback this year made sense, I have a feeling Tennessee would have lost last Thursday to Pittsburgh had Locker been under center instead of Matt Hasselbeck. 
28 (27)
1-4
Carolina fans are praying that the Panthers spent the bye week coming up with adjustments to the defensive adjustments to Cam Newton's rookie season. Newton has been effectively bottled up this year, and we're not seeing much from the Carolina coaches to counter that. 
29 (30)
1-4
Good news, Oakland fans: while a quarterback in last week's game threw 3 interceptions, it wasn't Carson Palmer! Bad news: you still lost. But it's progress! 
30 (31)
1-5
With the word that the Browns' new owner is umm, encouraging team president Mike Holmgren to retire at the end of the season, it's incredibly ironic that Holmgren's Cleveland legacy will be to leave a team with some quality pieces, but with giant holes at quarterback and head coach. 
31 (28)
1-5
Look on the bright side Chiefs fans. I know you're being subjected to a quarterback "competition" between Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn, but...
32 (29)
1-4
...at least your quarterback isn't Blaine Gabbert. 

Big risers:
1. Washington (6 spots) - Maybe they can actually slow down somebody. 
2. Seattle, Green Bay, Denver, Detroit, Tennessee (5 spots) - Three impressive comeback wins, one dominant effort over a top team, and one inspiring effort from a savvy, declining veteran quarterback. 

Biggest fallers:
1. Arizona, Pittsburgh (5 spots) - Both of these teams are being dragged down by horrible offensive lines. 
3. St. Louis (4 spots) - Their strategy of relying on a rookie kicker to score most of their points finally bit them in the rear. 

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