NFL Picks, Week 8

I had the introduction to this post all written in my head on Tuesday afternoon. WHOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!! I broke the .500 barrier! I actually did it!!! I knew this day would come!!!

There was going to be maybe 5 more paragraphs of that. Then I made my Thursday Night pick, a pick I felt really good about.

And then Minnesota pooped on themselves on national (mostly, it was the NFL Network) television. When the 12th overall pick in 2011 was used on Christian Ponder, and experts scratched their heads and called it a big reach, this is why. Ponder's ceiling is limited. Quarterbacks with limited ceilings don't usually go in the first round. What? What's that Brandon Weeden? Oh, well...yeah, I guess you have a point. Okay, quarterbacks with limited ceilings don't usually go in the top 15 picks of the first round.How's that? Better? Good. Now where was I?

And that's the deal with Christian Ponder. he's limited. Not because he's a rookie (he's not). Not because he's a young player (that contributes to where he is now but not his ceiling). Can you win with him? Absolutely. He can execute a game plan designed to accentuate his strengths and hide his weaknesses. With a strong running game and good defense he can keep the team on the tracks. But when things go wrong (like 2 first half fumbles), he isn't going to carry the team up the mountain.

The amazing part of the game is, Minnesota played exactly how you'd expect the road team to play on a Thursday night. Sloppy, out of rhythm, and terrible. Anyway, that totally ruined my mojo, so instead of an essay on how awesome I was last week, you got a couple paragraphs on why Minnesota isn't that great. Not sure if that's a win or a loss for you, the reader, but there you go.

CHICAGO (-7.5) over Carolina
Chicago's defense has made life miserable for every quarterback they've faced this season. Andrew Luck put up 21 points, but was sacked 3 times and threw 3 picks. Aaron Rodgers beat the Bears, but led his team to a whopping one touchdown and was sacked 5 times. Tony Romo led his team to 18 points, but threw 5 picks. Sam Bradford, Blaine Gabbert, and Matt Stafford scored 16 points. Combined! Which brings us to Cam Newton.

Newton is going through a rough patch right now. Against expectations, his team is 1-5, and he really only played well in 2 of the 6 games. Making things worse, he looks lost and forlorn after each loss. If there's one thing a leader just cannot do, it's project the image that he has no idea how to fix what's wrong. People will follow a leader (for awhile) who doesn't achieve success if they believe the leader can lead them to that success. Cam Newton isn't inspiring anything close to that right now. Things won't change against Chicago's defense.

San Diego (-3) over CLEVELAND
Will this game be closer than it should be? Of course it will, there's the Norv! factor to consider. But will that translate to a Cleveland win (or even a cover)? No. The talent disparity is just too great.

Seattle (+2.5) over DETROIT 
In every Seattle game this season, the underdog has never lost against the spread, and has only lost 1 game outright. That doesn't convince you? How about this stat: In 6 games so far this season, Matt Stafford has thrown 0 touchdown passes to Calvin Johnson. Nope, not a misprint. Johnson's only touchdown reception came from backup Shaun Hill while Stafford was out with an injury.

"ST. LOUIS" (+7) over New England 
With that terrible pass defense, I'm not sure you can justify having New England more than a 4 point favorite over anybody. Even if the game is in England.

Miami (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS 
Trust the team that's getting the most out of its limited talent, or the team quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez?

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Atlanta
Atlanta has been playing with fire against lesser teams for too long. And Andy Reid is money coming off of a bye. Makes you wonder if the effect is cumulative. When If he's fired at the end of the year and takes off all next season, does that count as 16 byes, and if so, does that guarantee whoever hires him for 2014 at least a record of 14-2?

Washington (+4.5) over PITTSBURGH
This game comes down to who has the ball last. I can easily see Ben making that play, but Pittsburgh's defense can't possibly shut the door on the RG3 sensation.

GREEN BAY (-15) over Jacksonville
I'm trusting that the Aaron Rodgers we saw these last two weeks would show up, which means Green Bay shoudl put up roughly 77 points of offense in this game.

TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Indianapolis
With Matt Hasselbeck playing, Tennessee is the better mediocre team in this one. Soon Andrew Luck will surpass him, but not this day.

Oakland (+1.5) over KANSAS CITY 
Kansas City really shouldn't be favored over anybody. Especially with Brady Quinn under center.

New York Giants (-2) over DALLAS
I don't see any way that the Giants aren't up for this game. It's on the road. It's Dallas. Dallas ruined their opening night defending champions celebration. All of this translates into a nightmare afternoon for Tony Romo.

DENVER (-6) over New Orleans
Peyton Manning, meet the defense that cannot stop anybody. Oh, and they're even worse outside a dome than you are. What's that? Why I'd love two million free pizzas, how kind of you.

San Francisco (-7) over ARIZONA
John Skelton threw for 3 touchdown passes against the 49ers in a game last season. That's both amazing and not ever happening again.

Last week: 6-5-2 (.538) 
Season: 39-60-5 (.399)