With that said, let's go to the games (and, as always, home team in CAPS).
SAN FRANCISCO (-7) over Seattle
I thought this pick would be easy. In case you haven't noticed, I am a whopping 0-6 this year when picking the midweek game. I am also a Seattle fan. So clearly I should pick San Francisco and put my hex on them to benefit my team. Seattle's going on the road to a divisional foe
Then I saw the line. It opened at 9 points. A game that's almost assured to be a defensive struggle featured a line of 9. It quickly dropped to 7.5, and now 7. Do I really believe that either of these teams will pull that far away in this game?
Oh what the hell. Suck it San Francisco. Enjoy the curse.
Midweek games: 0-6
BUFFALO (-3) over Tennessee
It's entirely likely that neither team is going to stop the other one for 60 minutes on Sunday. It's also very possible that both starting quarterbacks get a little turnover happy from all of the throwing to keep up with each other. Either way, Tennessee has a bit of a letdown coming.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-5.5) over Washington
I'll have to apologize to my friend Steveo for this one. Steveo was displeased with me when he saw that I picked his Giants over the 49ers last week. He should have been, look at my record. That being said, I did get that one right, so maybe (for one team at least), my luck is changing.
Anyway, this feels like a game Robert Griffin III doesn't finish. Too much pass rush from a Giants team motivated by getting swept by these Redskins last year.
New Orleans (-3) over TAMPA BAY
I don't believe Tampa can contain Drew Brees, not with their best cornerback out. I haven't forgotten that the Saints can't stop anyone either, but when anyone is Josh Freeman, offensive explosion means something different than when anyone means Drew Brees.
Dallas (-2) over CAROLINA
Essentially we're at this point with the Cowboys. Unless they can spend the first 3 quarters running out to a big lead, they will find a way to shoot themselves in the foot and lose the game. Either Romo will be off his game and throw 5 picks, or Jason Garrett will butcher the clock or ice his own kicker, or the defense will simply wilt, or the special teams will hand the other team 10 points before anyone blinks. Somehow, some way, the Cowboys will find a way to lose if allowed to.
So why am I picking them? I don't trust Cam Newton to make enough plays to put that pressure on the Cowboys.
HOUSTON (-6.5) over Baltimore
Yes, Houston just got torched for 42 points in their own house. Yes, their pass defense is very suspect. Yes, Baltimore is letting Joe Flacco throw it all over the place this year. But Joe Flacco is still a statue in the pocket, and Houston stills rushes the passer well, they just can't cover if the rush doesn't get there. It says here that the rush will get there. Oh, and there's this: Baltimore has given up over 200 yards rushing in each of the past two games to teams that don't have either Arian Foster or Ben Tate. Houston has both.
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) over Cleveland
I'll take the rookie who plays like he's 29 years old over the rookie who actually is 29 years old.
Green Bay (-5.5) over ST. LOUIS
This is a tempting upset pick as St. Louis knocked off two 4-2 teams in their last two home games. But Aaron Rodgers isn't Russell Wilson or Kevin Kolb, and Green Bay can spread the field to slow down the Rams rush.
Philadelphia's bye week (-4) over San Diego's bye week
While it was a shameless scapegoating, at least Andy Reid did something on his team's bye week in the midst of yet another disappointing season. Norv Turner may still be standing on the field in the Charger's stadium wondering how a 24-0 halftime lead turned into a 35-24 loss.
MINNESOTA (-6) over Arizona
Arizona doesn't start this season 4-0 if Seattle doesn't knock John Skelton out of the game in the 4th quarter of week 1. John Skelton is now the starter while Kevin Kolb recovers from injury.
NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over New York Jets
Russell Wilson would not have been in position to lead his team to victory if his defense hadn't held down the Patriots offense to keep the game close. Seattle's defense is elite. The Jets' defense is certainly not. While Mark Sanchez should be able to throw on the Patriots' defense, he cannot keep pace with a comfortable Tom Brady.
OAKLAND (-4) over Jacksonville
There is a list of quarterbacks in the NFL who I trust less than Carson Palmer. It's a very, very short list. But Blaine Gabbert's name is on it in bold letters.
CINCINNATI (+1.5) over Pittsburgh
I don't trust either defense to make a stop. Normally I would trust Ben to make one more play than 2nd-year QB Andy Dalton. But Pittsburgh's line is so bad that I'm going to take Dalton, AJ Green, and the points.
CHICAGO (-6) over Detroit
I feel very comfortable that Chicago a) employs a defensive coordinator who knows about defense and b) won't change a strategy that works for 3 quarters in the 4th quarter. The Bears are who they are defensively. Matt Stafford and the Lions have been held down by lesser defenses already this year. The Bears are not the team to right yourself against as a quarterback.
Last week: 4-10 (.286)
Season: 33-55-3 (.379)
Quick programming note: Due to my aforementioned vacation, there won't be any updates to the blog until Wednesday. Enjoy the games this weekend!
No comments:
Post a Comment