Thursday, November 3, 2016

NFL Picks, Week 9 - Thursday Night Edition


The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (CBS, 1 PM)
Dallas at Cleveland  (FOX, 1:00 PM) 
Indianapolis at Green Bay (CBS, 4:25PM)

The entire country will see 
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (NFLN, 8:30 *Thursday*)
Denver at Oakland (NBC, 8:30)
Buffalo at Seattle (ESPN, 8:30 *Monday*)

Atlanta (-4.5) over TAMPA BAY
Good news, fellow football-watchers: NBC, while not carrying this game, has taken over the production of the game. This means no more Phil Simms!!!!! 

The Falcons lost to the Buccaneers at home back in week 1, 31-24. Yet I'm picking them to win the rematch despite traveling on a short week. Why? It's simple: the Falcons are a better team. Or, to put it more pointedly, the Falcons actually do parts of the game well. 

Atlanta is better than average at running the ball (YPC), passing the ball (YPA), stopping boht the run and the pass, holding onto the ball, generatign explosive plays, their overall toxic differential, scoring points (points per drive), and scoring differential (points per drive differential). 

The Buccaneers? They're average at forcing turnovers, and better than average at getting off the field on 3rd down, and 3rd down differential. That's it. 

So if I'm going to pick the Bucs, it means I'm expecting them to contain Atlanta's explosive plays and win the battle on 3rd down. Instead, I expect this game to be a shoot-out, and I don't expect Tampa Bay to be able to keep pace with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones for 60 minutes. 

Let's go to the Thursday Night pick table:

Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas Line

Team Strength


Home Field
In Tampa Bay
 Image result for images: dan quinn
Coaching Matchup

 Image result for images: dirk koetter
Atlanta (-4.5)

2016 Midweek Picks: 4-4

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